feat: enforce minute holdout evidence contract

scripts/minute_rectification_holdout_validator.py

@@ -10,6 +10,39 @@ ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
 DEFAULT_MANIFEST = ROOT / "references" / "real_case_calibration" / "minute_rectification_holdout_v1.json"
 
 
+def _valid_events(events: list[Any], *, minimum: int, birth_url: str) -> bool:
+    if len(events) < minimum:
+        return False
+    for event in events:
+        if not isinstance(event, dict):
+            return False
+        source = event.get("source") if isinstance(event.get("source"), dict) else {}
+        date = str(event.get("event_date") or "")
+        # Month/year-only biographies cannot distinguish neighbouring minutes.
+        if len(date) != 10 or not source.get("url") or str(source["url"]) == birth_url:
+            return False
+    return True
+
+
+def _valid_negative_controls(controls: list[Any], *, minimum: int) -> bool:
+    if len(controls) < minimum:
+        return False
+    offsets: list[int] = []
+    commitments: set[str] = set()
+    for control in controls:
+        if not isinstance(control, dict):
+            return False
+        offset = control.get("offset_minutes")
+        commitment = str(control.get("commitment_hash") or "")
+        if not isinstance(offset, int) or offset == 0 or len(commitment) != 64:
+            return False
+        if any(key in control for key in ("candidate_minute", "published_minute", "birth_time")):
+            return False
+        offsets.append(offset)
+        commitments.add(commitment)
+    return any(offset < 0 for offset in offsets) and any(offset > 0 for offset in offsets) and len(set(offsets)) == len(offsets) and len(commitments) == len(controls)
+
+
 def validate(manifest_path: Path = DEFAULT_MANIFEST) -> dict[str, Any]:
     manifest = json.loads(manifest_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
     gate = manifest.get("minimum_gate") if isinstance(manifest.get("minimum_gate"), dict) else {}
@@ -23,13 +56,15 @@ def validate(manifest_path: Path = DEFAULT_MANIFEST) -> dict[str, Any]:
         birth = case.get("birth_source") if isinstance(case.get("birth_source"), dict) else {}
         events = case.get("events") if isinstance(case.get("events"), list) else []
         negatives = case.get("negative_minutes") if isinstance(case.get("negative_minutes"), list) else []
-        required = birth.get("time_accuracy_rating") == "AA" and bool(birth.get("url"))
-        required = required and len(events) >= int(gate.get("events_per_case", 3))
-        required = required and len(negatives) >= int(gate.get("negative_minutes_per_case", 4))
-        if required:
-            valid_cases += 1
+        case_id = str(case.get("case_id") or "unnamed_case")
+        if birth.get("time_accuracy_rating") != "AA" or not birth.get("url"):
+            invalid.append(f"{case_id}:birth_source_invalid")
+        elif not _valid_events(events, minimum=int(gate.get("events_per_case", 3)), birth_url=str(birth["url"])):
+            invalid.append(f"{case_id}:events_invalid")
+        elif not _valid_negative_controls(negatives, minimum=int(gate.get("negative_minutes_per_case", 4))):
+            invalid.append(f"{case_id}:negative_controls_invalid")
         else:
-            invalid.append(str(case.get("case_id") or "unnamed_case"))
+            valid_cases += 1
     needed = int(gate.get("public_aa_cases", 20))
     status = "ready_for_blind_replay" if valid_cases >= needed else "blocked_awaiting_public_aa_cases"
     return {