diff --git a/docs/research/holdout_v4_build_2026_09_14.md b/docs/research/holdout_v4_build_2026_09_14.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..e57a6e9e --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/holdout_v4_build_2026_09_14.md @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +# Holdout v4 构建说明（2026-09-14） + +- 口径：ayanamsa `raman`，node mode `mean`。 +- 父集：`references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json`（20 例公开 Rodden-AA）。 +- 产物：`references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v4.json` +- 生成脚本：`scripts/research/holdout_v4_build.py` +- 隐私：只用公开名人传记，不用真实用户资料。 + +## 为什么 v3 不能当尺度改动的否决门 + +| 项 | v3 | 真实会话 / 本产品 | +| --- | --- | --- | +| 每例事件 | 恰好 3 | 5–18 | +| 每例领域 | 2–3 | ≥4 才像一次问完的会话 | +| 搜索半径 | 全部 ±10 | 产品有 ±15/30/60/120 | +| 来源审计 | `invalidated_after_replay`（两处日期错） | 应用工作日期必须是核实过的 | +| 事件精度 | 多为 year | 会话里 year 也多，但 3 条 year 事件几乎没有分钟方差 | + +BUG-560 用 v3 否决 offset（覆盖 12/20）时，窗口本身只有 21 分钟、每例 3 件事。底座 11.5 对变化项 2.1 的比例在这种样本上几乎看不到差异。v4 用来量尺度，不是新的封存盲测门。 + +## v3 日期修正（任务 0） + +| 事件 | 提交值 | 核实值 | 来源 | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| `robbins_marriage_1968` | 1968（年） | 1967-03-10 | Wikipedia *John Robbins (author)* | +| `takamoto_joined_disney_1947` | 1947（年） | 1945（年） | Wikipedia *Iwao Takamoto* | + +v3 的 `source_audit_status` 改为 `corrected_known_date_errors`。它仍是每例 3 件事，**不是发布门**。 + +## v4 协议 + +1. 出生时间与地点原样继承 v3 的 Astro-Databank AA 记录。 +2. 每例补到 ≥7 件带年月事件、≥4 个领域。事件来自 Wikipedia / Britannica / 奥斯卡官方 / 白宫档案等公开页，且 `independent_of_birth_source=true`。 +3. 工作日期用核实过的公历，不再保留已被审计否定的盲测错年。 +4. 三档半径 ±10 / ±30 / ±60 写在数据集上，由测量脚本分别跑。真实分钟所在簇随打分方案变，记在 sweep 结果里，不写死在 holdout 里。 +5. `truth_hidden_from_ranker=false`：这是开放评价集，用来看尺度，不是第二份封存盲测。 + +## 与 v3 的差异 + +- 20 例名单不变。 +- 事件从 3 增到 ≥7，领域从 2–3 增到 ≥4。 +- 两处错年按核实值改正，并进入 v4 工作日期。 +- 明确三档半径和本仓口径。 + +## 基线成绩单 + +当前线上算法在 v4 上的五个指标见 `docs/research/minute_resolution_2026_09_14.md`。那份表才是后续改法的对照，不是 v3 的 12/20。 + +摘要：±10 / ±30 / ±60 头名簇命中 0.35 / 0.15 / 0.10，区间覆盖 1.00，宽度中位等于整窗（21 / 61 / 121），并列率 0.05 / 0.05 / 0.00。 diff --git 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"\u00b110:uncertain\uff1b\u00b130:uncertain\uff1b\u00b160:uncertain" + }, + "R4@lse": { + "verdict": "no_benefit", + "note": "\u00b110:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b130:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b160:no_benefit" + }, + "R5": { + "verdict": "no_benefit", + "note": "\u00b110:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b130:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b160:no_benefit" + }, + "R1+R2": { + "verdict": "uncertain", + "note": "\u00b110:benefit\uff1b\u00b130:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b160:no_benefit" + }, + "R1+R3": { + "verdict": "no_benefit", + "note": "\u00b110:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b130:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b160:no_benefit" + }, + "R1+R4": { + "verdict": "no_benefit", + "note": "\u00b110:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b130:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b160:no_benefit" + }, + "R1+R5": { + "verdict": "no_benefit", + "note": "\u00b110:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b130:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b160:no_benefit" + }, + "R2+R3": { + "verdict": "uncertain", + "note": "\u00b110:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b130:benefit\uff1b\u00b160:no_benefit" + }, + "R2+R4": { + "verdict": "no_benefit", + "note": "\u00b110:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b130:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b160:no_benefit" + }, + "R2+R5": { + "verdict": "no_benefit", + "note": "\u00b110:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b130:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b160:no_benefit" + }, + "R3+R4": { + "verdict": "uncertain", + "note": "\u00b110:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b130:benefit\uff1b\u00b160:no_benefit" + }, + "R3+R5": { + "verdict": "uncertain", + "note": "\u00b110:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b130:benefit\uff1b\u00b160:no_benefit" + }, + "R4+R5": { + "verdict": "no_benefit", + "note": "\u00b110:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b130:no_benefit\uff1b\u00b160:no_benefit" + } + }, + "kp": [ + { + "case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout", + "changes": 8, + "by_domain": { + "career": 3, + "education": 6, + "family": 8, + "relationship": 4, + "relocation": 7, + "any": 8 + }, + "eligible": true + }, + { + "case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout", + "changes": 8, + "by_domain": { + "career": 4, + "family": 7, + "health_pressure": 8, + "relationship": 2, + "any": 8 + }, + 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+ "true_cluster_rank": 1, + "true_cluster_size": 3, + "window_width": 1439 + }, + "replay": { + "entropy": [ + 5.924059 + ], + "asked": 0, + "probes": 0, + "remaining_count": 5, + "remaining_mode": "capped_to_5", + "true_alive": true, + "replay_top1": true, + "coverage_after_answers": [] + }, + "true_cluster_key": "3,2,1,6,3,7,8,0,7", + "true_cluster_size": 3, + "score_range": 5.5036, + "case_id": "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + }, + { + "engine": { + "top1_hit": false, + "coverage": true, + "width": 121, + "tie": false, + "entropy": 4.854887, + "truth_squeezed": false, + "too_narrow": false, + "leader_count": 1, + "public_count": 29, + "true_cluster_rank": 9, + "true_cluster_size": 3, + "window_width": 121 + }, + "replay": { + "entropy": [ + 5.927673 + ], + "asked": 0, + "probes": 0, + "remaining_count": 5, + "remaining_mode": "capped_to_5", + "true_alive": true, + "replay_top1": false, + "coverage_after_answers": [] + }, + "true_cluster_key": "6,7,9,11,1,10,10,0,2,0", + "true_cluster_size": 3, + "score_range": 4.7905, + "case_id": "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + }, + { + "engine": { + "top1_hit": false, + "coverage": true, + "width": 121, + "tie": false, + "entropy": 5.274039, + "truth_squeezed": false, + "too_narrow": false, + "leader_count": 1, + "public_count": 39, + "true_cluster_rank": 25, + "true_cluster_size": 2, + "window_width": 121 + }, + "replay": { + "entropy": [ + 5.919766, + 2.319717, + 2.320355, + 2.321901, + 2.320302, + 2.32059, + 2.313148 + ], + "asked": 6, + "probes": 8, + "remaining_count": 5, + "remaining_mode": "capped_to_5", + "true_alive": true, + "replay_top1": false, + "coverage_after_answers": [ + true, + true, + true, + true, + true, + true + ] + }, + "true_cluster_key": "4,0,8,1,0,2,9,0,7", + "true_cluster_size": 2, + "score_range": 7.7559, + "case_id": "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + }, + { + "engine": { + "top1_hit": false, + "coverage": true, + "width": 121, + "tie": false, + "entropy": 5.445559, + "truth_squeezed": false, + "too_narrow": false, + "leader_count": 1, + "public_count": 46, + "true_cluster_rank": 20, + "true_cluster_size": 2, + "window_width": 121 + }, + "replay": { + "entropy": [ + 5.853289, + 2.314083, + 2.316083, + 2.31718, + 2.317996, + 2.321826, + 2.319591 + ], + "asked": 6, + "probes": 8, + "remaining_count": 5, + "remaining_mode": "capped_to_5", + "true_alive": true, + "replay_top1": false, + "coverage_after_answers": [ + true, + true, + true, + true, + true, + true + ] + }, + "true_cluster_key": "0,11,1,3,3,2", + "true_cluster_size": 2, + "score_range": 11.7987, + "case_id": "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + }, + { + "engine": { + "top1_hit": true, + "coverage": true, + "width": 121, + "tie": false, + "entropy": 5.190618, + "truth_squeezed": false, + "too_narrow": false, + "leader_count": 1, + "public_count": 37, + "true_cluster_rank": 1, + "true_cluster_size": 3, + "window_width": 121 + }, + "replay": { + "entropy": [ + 5.905306, + 2.318094, + 2.31774, + 2.318687, + 2.319345, + 2.319822, + 2.320178 + ], + "asked": 6, + "probes": 8, + "remaining_count": 5, + "remaining_mode": "capped_to_5", + "true_alive": true, + "replay_top1": true, + "coverage_after_answers": [ + true, + true, + true, + true, + true, + true + ] + }, + "true_cluster_key": "2,0,3,5,9,6,4,6", + "true_cluster_size": 3, + "score_range": 7.0634, + "case_id": "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + }, + { + "engine": { + "top1_hit": false, + "coverage": true, + "width": 121, + "tie": false, + "entropy": 4.953321, + "truth_squeezed": false, + "too_narrow": false, + "leader_count": 1, + "public_count": 32, + "true_cluster_rank": 20, + "true_cluster_size": 1, + "window_width": 121 + }, + "replay": { + "entropy": [ + 5.889288, + 2.312969, + 2.315424, + 2.317095, + 2.31815, + 2.318894, + 2.319438 + ], + "asked": 6, + "probes": 8, + "remaining_count": 5, + 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"true_cluster_size": 3, + "score_range": 3.4936, + "case_id": "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + }, + { + "engine": { + "top1_hit": false, + "coverage": true, + "width": 121, + "tie": false, + "entropy": 4.947623, + "truth_squeezed": false, + "too_narrow": false, + "leader_count": 1, + "public_count": 31, + "true_cluster_rank": 2, + "true_cluster_size": 3, + "window_width": 121 + }, + "replay": { + "entropy": [ + 5.925581, + 2.321182, + 2.319964, + 2.314318, + 2.315672, + 2.299089, + 2.302849 + ], + "asked": 6, + "probes": 8, + "remaining_count": 5, + "remaining_mode": "capped_to_5", + "true_alive": true, + "replay_top1": true, + "coverage_after_answers": [ + true, + true, + true, + true, + true, + true + ] + }, + "true_cluster_key": "3,6,2,5,8,10,1,7", + "true_cluster_size": 3, + "score_range": 7.6437, + "case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + }, + { + "engine": { + "top1_hit": false, + "coverage": true, + "width": 121, + "tie": false, + "entropy": 5.075458, + "truth_squeezed": false, + "too_narrow": false, + "leader_count": 1, + "public_count": 34, + "true_cluster_rank": 6, + "true_cluster_size": 2, + "window_width": 121 + }, + "replay": { + "entropy": [ + 5.91708, + 2.317995, + 2.320269, + 2.321294, + 2.321443, + 2.317718, + 2.313975 + ], + "asked": 6, + "probes": 8, + "remaining_count": 5, + "remaining_mode": "capped_to_5", + "true_alive": true, + "replay_top1": false, + "coverage_after_answers": [ + true, + true, + true, + true, + true, + true + ] + }, + "true_cluster_key": "3,0,2,11,9,2,6,9", + "true_cluster_size": 2, + "score_range": 3.9441, + "case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + }, + { + "engine": { + "top1_hit": false, + "coverage": true, + "width": 121, + "tie": false, + "entropy": 5.309037, + "truth_squeezed": false, + "too_narrow": false, + "leader_count": 1, + "public_count": 40, + "true_cluster_rank": 19, + "true_cluster_size": 3, + "window_width": 121 + }, + 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+ "true_alive": true, + "replay_top1": false, + "coverage_after_answers": [ + true, + true, + true, + true, + true, + true + ] + }, + "true_cluster_key": "5,4,1,5,1,9,5,11,5,1", + "true_cluster_size": 3, + "score_range": 10.8408, + "case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + }, + { + "engine": { + "top1_hit": false, + "coverage": true, + "width": 121, + "tie": false, + "entropy": 4.950833, + "truth_squeezed": false, + "too_narrow": false, + "leader_count": 1, + "public_count": 31, + "true_cluster_rank": 13, + "true_cluster_size": 3, + "window_width": 121 + }, + "replay": { + "entropy": [ + 5.927337, + 2.321444, + 2.321607, + 2.321671, + 2.321718, + 2.321753, + 2.32178 + ], + "asked": 6, + "probes": 8, + "remaining_count": 5, + "remaining_mode": "capped_to_5", + "true_alive": true, + "replay_top1": false, + "coverage_after_answers": [ + true, + true, + true, + true, + true, + true + ] + }, + "true_cluster_key": "4,8,3,8,1,6", + "true_cluster_size": 3, + "score_range": 4.077, + "case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + }, + { + "engine": { + "top1_hit": false, + "coverage": true, + "width": 121, + "tie": false, + "entropy": 5.331488, + "truth_squeezed": false, + "too_narrow": false, + "leader_count": 1, + "public_count": 41, + "true_cluster_rank": 39, + "true_cluster_size": 2, + "window_width": 121 + }, + "replay": { + "entropy": [ + 5.905531, + 2.30179, + 2.314071, + 2.313245, + 2.317485, + 2.319659, + 2.319032 + ], + "asked": 6, + "probes": 8, + "remaining_count": 5, + "remaining_mode": "capped_to_5", + "true_alive": true, + "replay_top1": false, + "coverage_after_answers": [ + true, + true, + true, + true, + true, + true + ] + }, + "true_cluster_key": "8,3,0,5,8,7,2,4,5,6", + "true_cluster_size": 2, + "score_range": 6.9444, + "case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + }, + { + "engine": { + "top1_hit": false, + "coverage": true, + "width": 121, + "tie": false, + "entropy": 5.085466, + "truth_squeezed": false, + "too_narrow": false, + "leader_count": 1, + "public_count": 34, + "true_cluster_rank": 10, + "true_cluster_size": 1, + "window_width": 121 + }, + "replay": { + "entropy": [ + 5.928953, + 2.32169, + 2.321742, + 2.321704, + 2.321744, + 2.32165, + 2.321694 + ], + "asked": 6, + "probes": 8, + "remaining_count": 5, + "remaining_mode": "capped_to_5", + "true_alive": true, + "replay_top1": false, + "coverage_after_answers": [ + true, + true, + true, + true, + true, + true + ] + }, + "true_cluster_key": "3,4,1,4,9,0,7,8,9", + "true_cluster_size": 1, + "score_range": 2.2624, + "case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + }, + { + "engine": { + "top1_hit": false, + "coverage": true, + "width": 121, + "tie": false, + "entropy": 4.126813, + "truth_squeezed": false, + "too_narrow": false, + "leader_count": 1, + "public_count": 18, + "true_cluster_rank": 11, + "true_cluster_size": 1, + "window_width": 121 + }, + "replay": { + "entropy": [ + 5.895347, + 2.320003, + 2.320412, + 2.317173, + 2.310911, + 2.298672, + 2.29034 + ], + "asked": 6, + "probes": 8, + "remaining_count": 5, + "remaining_mode": "capped_to_5", + "true_alive": true, + "replay_top1": false, + "coverage_after_answers": [ + true, + true, + true, + true, + true, + true + ] + }, + "true_cluster_key": "7,7,5,4,5", + "true_cluster_size": 1, + "score_range": 8.3018, + "case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout", + "kp_eligible": true + } + ] + } + } +} diff --git a/docs/research/minute_resolution_2026_09_14.md b/docs/research/minute_resolution_2026_09_14.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..d71b4928 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/minute_resolution_2026_09_14.md @@ -0,0 +1,181 @@ +# 分钟分辨率打分尺度测量（2026-09-14） + +- 口径：ayanamsa `raman`，node mode `mean`。不得与上游 true-node 数字直接对比。 +- 数据：`references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v4.json`，20 例公开 Rodden-AA，每例 ≥7 件事、≥4 个领域。 +- 半径：±10, ±30, ±60，步长 2 分钟。 +- 性质：离线测量。生产 `active_rectification_event_engine.py` / `scoring_service.py` / `candidate_contrast.py` 默认值未改。 +- D1：KP 宫头子主计分方向已拍板；本文件只报告权重收益，不改线上默认。 +- 过门标准（任务书）：命中率与区间覆盖率不降、并列率下降、区间宽度中位数下降。三档半径要一致才算「有收益」。 + +## 结论 + +**没有改法在 ±10 / ±30 / ±60 同时过门，不立实现单。** 线上默认权重保持不动。 + +读数字时先看这件事：三个半径上，所有方案的交付区间宽度中位数都等于整个搜索窗（21 / 61 / 121）。公开簇并集铺满了窗口，所以「去底座 / 加权 / 换签名」几乎改不了用户看到的范围卡宽度。这是本轮最硬的结果。 + +| 改法 | 判定 | 要点 | +| --- | --- | --- | +| **R1 分盘除数** | 不确定 | ±10 头名簇命中 0.35→0.45（`len` / `sqrt`），宽窗上消失。宽度不变。 | +| **R2 去底座** | 无收益 | 三档半径命中和宽度都不动；引擎熵有下降（±10：2.56→2.39），但过门不看熵。 | +| **R3 KP 子主计分** | 无收益 / 不确定 | 20/20 例在 ±10 窗内宫头子主都变了（5–9 次），不是「窗内不变」的假阴性。±10 命中从 0.35 降到 0.20（权重 1.0），权重越大越差。产品方向仍有效，**默认权重不能直接上线**。 | +| **R4 年精度边际** | 无收益 / 不确定 | `lse` 与基线几乎相同。`max` 在 ±10 命中到 0.50，但并列率 0.05→0.50，把峰值摊成平手。 | +| **R5 动态签名层** | 无收益 | 命中下降或持平，熵上升。 | +| 两两组合 | 无收益或不确定 | 没有一组三档半径同时过门。`R1+R2` 只在 ±10 复制了 R1 的命中提升。 | + +基线本身：真分钟从未被挤出交付区间（覆盖率 1.00）；引擎头名簇命中只有 0.35 / 0.15 / 0.10。六题真值方向回放后头名 0.80 / 0.55 / 0.35——会话里「问完仍并列」主要不是 holdout 上的引擎头名问题，而是**范围卡宽度等于整窗**。 + +若下一轮还做，优先查「为什么公开簇并集永远铺满搜索窗」（签名层在 ±10 内是否几乎每分钟一组，或 `cap_clusters_by_adjacent_merge` 把弱簇并回整窗），而不是继续加权重。R3 若要再试，需要单独标定，且不得降低 ±10 命中。 + +### 分方案判定明细 + +| 改法 | 判定 | 说明 | +| --- | --- | --- | +| R1@len | **uncertain** | ±10:benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R1@sqrt | **uncertain** | ±10:benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R1@fixed2 | **uncertain** | ±10:benefit；±30:benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R2 | **no_benefit** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R3@0.5 | **no_benefit** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R3@1.0 | **uncertain** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R3@2.0 | **uncertain** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R4@max | **uncertain** | ±10:uncertain；±30:uncertain；±60:uncertain | +| R4@lse | **no_benefit** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R5 | **no_benefit** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R1+R2 | **uncertain** | ±10:benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R1+R3 | **no_benefit** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R1+R4 | **no_benefit** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R1+R5 | **no_benefit** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R2+R3 | **uncertain** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R2+R4 | **no_benefit** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R2+R5 | **no_benefit** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R3+R4 | **uncertain** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R3+R5 | **uncertain** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:benefit；±60:no_benefit | +| R4+R5 | **no_benefit** | ±10:no_benefit；±30:no_benefit；±60:no_benefit | + +## 基线成绩单 + +| 半径 | N | 真分钟在头名簇 | 真分钟在交付区间 | 区间宽度中位 | 并列率 | 引擎熵 | 真值被挤出 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| ±10 | 20 | 0.35 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.559 | 0 | +| ±30 | 20 | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 4.038 | 0 | +| ±60 | 20 | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.992 | 0 | + +## 分半径指标 + +### ±10 分钟 + +| 方案 | 头名簇命中 | 区间覆盖 | 宽度中位 | 并列率 | 熵0 | 熵6 | 挤出 | 过窄 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| baseline | 0.35 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.559 | 2.141 | 0 | 0 | +| R1@len | 0.45 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.554 | 2.139 | 0 | 0 | +| R1@sqrt | 0.45 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.554 | 2.139 | 0 | 0 | +| R1@fixed2 | 0.4 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.559 | 2.141 | 0 | 0 | +| R2 | 0.35 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.387 | 2.034 | 0 | 0 | +| R3@0.5 | 0.25 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 2.56 | 2.142 | 0 | 0 | +| R3@1.0 | 0.2 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 2.56 | 2.143 | 0 | 0 | +| R3@2.0 | 0.15 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 2.557 | 2.142 | 0 | 0 | +| R4@max | 0.5 | 1 | 21 | 0.5 | 2.56 | 2.143 | 0 | 0 | +| R4@lse | 0.35 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.559 | 2.141 | 0 | 0 | +| R5 | 0.25 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.648 | 2.194 | 0 | 0 | +| R1+R2 | 0.45 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.356 | 2.025 | 0 | 0 | +| R1+R3 | 0.25 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 2.556 | 2.142 | 0 | 0 | +| R1+R4 | 0.35 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.554 | 2.139 | 0 | 0 | +| R1+R5 | 0.35 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.643 | 2.192 | 0 | 0 | +| R2+R3 | 0.2 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 2.485 | 2.088 | 0 | 0 | +| R2+R4 | 0.35 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.386 | 2.035 | 0 | 0 | +| R2+R5 | 0.25 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.47 | 2.104 | 0 | 0 | +| R3+R4 | 0.2 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 2.56 | 2.143 | 0 | 0 | +| R3+R5 | 0.15 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 2.649 | 2.196 | 0 | 0 | +| R4+R5 | 0.25 | 1 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.648 | 2.195 | 0 | 0 | + +### ±30 分钟 + +| 方案 | 头名簇命中 | 区间覆盖 | 宽度中位 | 并列率 | 熵0 | 熵6 | 挤出 | 过窄 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| baseline | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 4.038 | 2.576 | 0 | 0 | +| R1@len | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 4.03 | 2.576 | 0 | 0 | +| R1@sqrt | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 4.03 | 2.576 | 0 | 0 | +| R1@fixed2 | 0.2 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 4.037 | 2.576 | 0 | 0 | +| R2 | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 3.915 | 2.546 | 0 | 0 | +| R3@0.5 | 0.1 | 1 | 61 | 0 | 4.039 | 2.577 | 0 | 0 | +| R3@1.0 | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0 | 4.039 | 2.577 | 0 | 0 | +| R3@2.0 | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0 | 4.036 | 2.577 | 0 | 0 | +| R4@max | 0.2 | 1 | 61 | 0.25 | 4.039 | 2.578 | 0 | 0 | +| R4@lse | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 4.038 | 2.576 | 0 | 0 | +| R5 | 0.1 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 4.096 | 2.576 | 0 | 0 | +| R1+R2 | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 3.874 | 2.541 | 0 | 0 | +| R1+R3 | 0.1 | 1 | 61 | 0 | 4.033 | 2.577 | 0 | 0 | +| R1+R4 | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 4.03 | 2.576 | 0 | 0 | +| R1+R5 | 0.1 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 4.088 | 2.576 | 0 | 0 | +| R2+R3 | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0 | 3.973 | 2.557 | 0 | 0 | +| R2+R4 | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 3.91 | 2.547 | 0 | 0 | +| R2+R5 | 0.1 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 3.97 | 2.546 | 0 | 0 | +| R3+R4 | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0 | 4.039 | 2.578 | 0 | 0 | +| R3+R5 | 0.15 | 1 | 61 | 0 | 4.097 | 2.577 | 0 | 0 | +| R4+R5 | 0.1 | 1 | 61 | 0.05 | 4.096 | 2.576 | 0 | 0 | + +### ±60 分钟 + +| 方案 | 头名簇命中 | 区间覆盖 | 宽度中位 | 并列率 | 熵0 | 熵6 | 挤出 | 过窄 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| baseline | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.992 | 2.678 | 0 | 0 | +| R1@len | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.986 | 2.677 | 0 | 0 | +| R1@sqrt | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.987 | 2.677 | 0 | 0 | +| R1@fixed2 | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.992 | 2.678 | 0 | 0 | +| R2 | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.918 | 2.668 | 0 | 0 | +| R3@0.5 | 0.05 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.995 | 2.678 | 0 | 0 | +| R3@1.0 | 0.05 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.996 | 2.678 | 0 | 0 | +| R3@2.0 | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.995 | 2.678 | 0 | 0 | +| R4@max | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0.2 | 4.993 | 2.678 | 0 | 0 | +| R4@lse | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.992 | 2.678 | 0 | 0 | +| R5 | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 5.033 | 2.677 | 0 | 0 | +| R1+R2 | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.903 | 2.667 | 0 | 0 | +| R1+R3 | 0.05 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.992 | 2.678 | 0 | 0 | +| R1+R4 | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.987 | 2.677 | 0 | 0 | +| R1+R5 | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 5.027 | 2.677 | 0 | 0 | +| R2+R3 | 0.05 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.954 | 2.671 | 0 | 0 | +| R2+R4 | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.919 | 2.669 | 0 | 0 | +| R2+R5 | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.956 | 2.668 | 0 | 0 | +| R3+R4 | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 4.996 | 2.679 | 0 | 0 | +| R3+R5 | 0.05 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 5.037 | 2.678 | 0 | 0 | +| R4+R5 | 0.1 | 1 | 121 | 0 | 5.033 | 2.677 | 0 | 0 | + +## R3 KP 窗内变化 + +只统计 ±10 窗内目标宫宫头子主至少变化一次的例子。 + +| 例子 | 窗内变化次数 | 计入 R3 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | +| barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout | 8 | yes | +| angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout | 8 | yes | +| tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout | 7 | yes | +| elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout | 9 | yes | +| elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout | 7 | yes | +| pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout | 8 | yes | +| sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout | 5 | yes | +| salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout | 7 | yes | +| steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout | 7 | yes | +| albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout | 7 | yes | +| paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout | 8 | yes | +| tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout | 7 | yes | +| andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout | 8 | yes | +| sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout | 6 | yes | +| joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout | 9 | yes | +| kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout | 7 | yes | +| john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout | 8 | yes | +| chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout | 8 | yes | +| bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout | 8 | yes | +| iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout | 7 | yes | + +## 方法 + +1. 每个例子先算生产静态盘（含 KP 观察），再按事件抽样日打生产分。 +2. R1 按 `*_domain_varga` 规则把 `2*len` 换成 `len` / `sqrt(len)` / 固定 2。 +3. R2 在事件级减去当前窗口最小值。 +4. R3 把目标宫 KP 子主/次子主与当时 Vim MD/AD/PD 比对，权重 0.5 / 1.0 / 2.0。 +5. R4 对年精度 12 个月样本取 max 或 log-sum-exp（T=1）。 +6. R5 按本例有证据的领域动态取签名层，去掉同日恒定的 `md`。 +7. 交付区间 = 公开簇成员分钟的并集。并列 = 头名簇分数并列。 +8. 熵曲线用生产探针 + 真值方向最优答，最多 6 题。 + +配对组合用 R1=`len`、R3=1.0、R4=`lse`。 + diff --git a/docs/tasks/PROGRESS-rectification-minute-resolution-research-20260914.md b/docs/tasks/PROGRESS-rectification-minute-resolution-research-20260914.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..547afb3b --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/tasks/PROGRESS-rectification-minute-resolution-research-20260914.md @@ -0,0 +1,44 @@ +# 进度 · 分钟分辨率打分尺度研究（2026-09-14） + +## 范围 + +- 分支：`codex/rectification-minute-resolution-research-20260914`（基于 `origin/staging` @ `9943a05a`） +- 任务单：`docs/tasks/TASK-rectification-minute-resolution-research-20260914.md` +- 结果：`docs/research/minute_resolution_2026_09_14.md` + 同名 `.json` +- v4：`references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v4.json`、`docs/research/holdout_v4_build_2026_09_14.md` +- 脚本：`scripts/research/minute_resolution_sweep.py`（离线，不进 API） +- 未改 `active_rectification_event_engine.py`、`scoring_service.py`、`candidate_contrast.py`、确认门、并列判据 +- 本单不占 BUG 号 + +## 完成 + +- 开工读了对照报告、BUG-325 / 560 / 570。D1 推翻的是 BUG-325「不得把 KP 观察计分」这一条；确认门仍不动。 +- 任务 0：v3 两处错年写入工作日期（Robbins 婚期 1967-03-10，Takamoto 入职迪士尼 1945），`source_audit_status=corrected_known_date_errors`。v4 仍是 20 例公开 AA，每例 ≥7 件事、≥4 个领域，半径 ±10/±30/±60。 +- 任务 1：五个改法单独测 + 两两组合。口径 ayanamsa=`raman`、node mode=`mean`。20/20 例跑完，错误 0。 +- R3：±10 窗内 KP 宫头子主 20/20 都变（5–9 次），没有「窗内不变」的例子被稀释。 + +## 验收数字 + +- 基线（v4，当前线上算法）： + +| 半径 | 头名簇命中 | 区间覆盖 | 宽度中位 | 并列率 | 引擎熵 | 六题回放头名 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| ±10 | 0.35 | 1.00 | 21 | 0.05 | 2.56 | 0.80 | +| ±30 | 0.15 | 1.00 | 61 | 0.05 | 4.04 | 0.55 | +| ±60 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 121 | 0.00 | 4.99 | 0.35 | + +- 所有方案的交付宽度中位数都等于整个搜索窗。真值挤出 = 0，过窄 = 0。 +- R1 `len`/`sqrt`：±10 命中 0.35→0.45，宽窗上无提升。 +- R2：命中/宽度不动，±10 熵 2.56→2.39。 +- R3 权重 1.0：±10 命中 0.35→0.20。 +- R4 `max`：±10 命中 0.50，并列率 0.05→0.50。 +- 判定：**没有改法三档半径同时过门，不立实现单。** +- `python -m pytest tests/test_minute_resolution_research.py`：9 passed（本机 pytest 9.1；仓库 `minversion` 8.0）。 +- 本机无项目 `.venv`，未跑 `run_quality_gate.py --profile quick`。脚本与测试会进门禁路径。 + +## 未做 + +- 未改线上计分 +- 未把研究脚本接到 API +- 未立实现单（过门失败） +- 未做 PyJHora / VedAstro / jyotishganit 同一盘对照 diff --git a/docs/tasks/README.md b/docs/tasks/README.md index 95ef9b96..92d66b1f 100644 --- a/docs/tasks/README.md +++ b/docs/tasks/README.md @@ -184,7 +184,7 @@ | `TASK-rectification-targeted-card-dead-20260913.md` | `PROGRESS-rectification-targeted-card-dead-20260913.md` | **P0**：定向补事卡在快照投影里拿不到 `choice_card`（承接焦点分支不重建 `choice_frame`），卡片看得见点不动、流程停在采集等待态；模型还会把定向题改写成口述题（BUG-669～671）。先于 tie-break 修复单执行 | 待验收 | `codex/rectification-targeted-card-dead-20260913` | -| `TASK-rectification-minute-resolution-research-20260914.md` | `PROGRESS-rectification-minute-resolution-research-20260914.md` | **研究单**：候选分不开的根因是打分尺度——窗口内恒定项 11.5 分 vs 随分钟变化项 2.125 分（≈5:1）。先修封存基准（v3 每例仅 3 件事且被标 invalidated）出 v4，再离线量五个改法：分盘除数、去底座、**KP 宫头子主计分（产品 09-14 拍板，推翻 BUG-325 一条红线）**、年精度事件改边际似然、聚类签名层对齐。有收益才立实现单 | 待执行 | `codex/rectification-minute-resolution-research-20260914` | +| `TASK-rectification-minute-resolution-research-20260914.md` | `PROGRESS-rectification-minute-resolution-research-20260914.md` | **研究单**：候选分不开的根因是打分尺度——窗口内恒定项 11.5 分 vs 随分钟变化项 2.125 分（≈5:1）。先修封存基准（v3 每例仅 3 件事且被标 invalidated）出 v4，再离线量五个改法：分盘除数、去底座、**KP 宫头子主计分（产品 09-14 拍板，推翻 BUG-325 一条红线）**、年精度事件改边际似然、聚类签名层对齐。有收益才立实现单 | 待验收 | `codex/rectification-minute-resolution-research-20260914` | | `TASK-rectification-tiebreak-before-card-20260914.md` | `PROGRESS-rectification-tiebreak-before-card-20260914.md` | **P0**：点「再答两道参考题」服务端 ok 但界面无反应（`requestTieBreak` 的 `loadCaseSnapshot()` 不带合并回调，新 turn 不入对话区）（BUG-685）；产品拍板放宽版 A——出交付卡前只要参考题可用且没用过就先问两道（不看分差），卡上收起按钮（BUG-686）；交付文案列出用户已拒答的线（BUG-687） | 待验收 | `codex/rectification-tiebreak-before-card-20260914` | diff --git a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json index 1805443c..3deae2f3 100644 --- a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json +++ b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json @@ -4,13 +4,16 @@ "description": "Sealed public Rodden-AA minute holdout for the event-specific fact ranker v4.", "truth_hidden_from_ranker": true, "frozen_before_replay": true, - "source_audit_status": "invalidated_after_replay", + "source_audit_status": "corrected_known_date_errors", + "source_audit_note": "2026-09-14: the two known date errors were written into the working date fields. This file is still 3 events per case and is not a release gate. Use minute_rectification_holdout_v4.json for scale measurement.", "source_audit_issues": [ { "event_id": "robbins_marriage_1968", + "status": "corrected", "issue": "The cited public biography gives 1967-03-10, not 1968.", "submitted_date": "1968", "verified_date": "1967-03-10", + "working_date": "1967-03-10", "cited_url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/about/", "cited_url_outcome": "replaced", "cited_url_note": "The original about page has no marriage date.", @@ -18,9 +21,11 @@ }, { "event_id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947", + "status": "corrected", "issue": "Multiple public biographies give 1945, not 1947.", "submitted_date": "1947", "verified_date": "1945", + "working_date": "1945", "cited_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", "cited_url_outcome": "kept", "cited_url_note": "The cited Wikipedia page states hired by Walt Disney Productions in 1945, not 1947." @@ -317,7 +322,7 @@ "source": {"publisher": "Astro-Databank", "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Robbins%2C_John", "rodden_rating": "AA", "record_type": "birth_record"} }, "events": [ - {"id": "robbins_marriage_1968", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1968", "precision": "year", "submitted_date": "1968", "verified_date": "1967-03-10", "source_audit_note": "Blind working date remains submitted 1968. Verified 1967-03-10 from Wikipedia; original johnrobbins.info/about/ has no marriage date.", "description": "Married Deo Robbins.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}, + {"id": "robbins_marriage_1968", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1967-03-10", "precision": "day", "submitted_date": "1968", "verified_date": "1967-03-10", "source_audit_note": "Working date corrected 2026-09-14 to the verified 1967-03-10 Wikipedia biography date.", "description": "Married Deo Robbins.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}, {"id": "robbins_diet_book_1987", "domain": "career", "date": "1987", "precision": "year", "description": "Published Diet for a New America.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}, {"id": "robbins_health_book_1996", "domain": "career", "date": "1996", "precision": "year", "description": "Published Reclaiming Our Health.", "source": {"publisher": "John Robbins", "url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/books/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}} ] @@ -362,7 +367,7 @@ "source": {"publisher": "Astro-Databank", "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Takamoto%2C_Iwao", "rodden_rating": "AA", "record_type": "birth_record"} }, "events": [ - {"id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947", "domain": "career", "date": "1947", "precision": "year", "submitted_date": "1947", "verified_date": "1945", "source_audit_note": "Blind working date remains submitted 1947. Cited Wikipedia states hired by Walt Disney Productions in 1945; URL kept.", "description": "Joined Walt Disney Animation Studios.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}, + {"id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947", "domain": "career", "date": "1945", "precision": "year", "submitted_date": "1947", "verified_date": "1945", "source_audit_note": "Working date corrected 2026-09-14 to the verified 1945 Wikipedia hiring year.", "description": "Joined Walt Disney Animation Studios.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}, {"id": "takamoto_hanna_barbera_1961", "domain": "career", "date": "1961", "precision": "year", "description": "Moved to Hanna-Barbera and began designing its characters.", "source": {"publisher": "Animation Magazine", "url": "https://www.animationmagazine.net/2007/01/animation-legend-iwao-takamoto-dies/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}, {"id": "takamoto_heart_attack_2007", "domain": "health_pressure", "date": "2007-01-08", "precision": "day", "description": "Died following a heart attack.", "source": {"publisher": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/10/arts/10takamoto.html", "independent_of_birth_source": true}} ] diff --git a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v4.json b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v4.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ee3b5be3 --- /dev/null +++ b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v4.json @@ -0,0 +1,2552 @@ +{ + "schema_version": "minute-rectification-holdout-v4", + "benchmark_id": "minute_rectification_scale_holdout_v4", + "description": "Public Rodden-AA minute set with at least 7 dated events and 4 domains per case, scored at \u00b110 / \u00b130 / \u00b160. Open evaluation for scoring-scale research, not a sealed blind release gate.", + "truth_hidden_from_ranker": false, + "frozen_before_replay": false, + "source_audit_status": "public_biography_expansion_2026_09_14", + "ayanamsa": "raman", + "node_mode": "mean", + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "minimum_gate": { + "public_aa_cases": 20, + "events_per_case": 7, + "domains_per_case": 4 + }, + "v3_date_corrections": [ + { + "event_id": "robbins_marriage_1968", + "submitted": "1968", + "working": "1967-03-10" + }, + { + "event_id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947", + "submitted": "1947", + "working": "1945" + } + ], + "parent_dataset": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json", + "cases": [ + { + "case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "Barack Obama", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1961-08-04", + "time": "19:24", + "place": "Honolulu, Hawaii, United States", + "latitude": 21.3069, + "longitude": -157.8583, + "timezone_offset": -10.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/adbvip/adbvip_08_04.htm?lang=r&nho2=161&nhor=1", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "obama_columbia_1983", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1983", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Graduated from Columbia University.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "obama_chicago_1985", + "domain": "relocation", + "date": "1985", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Moved to Chicago as a community organizer.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", + "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Barack-Obama", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "obama_harvard_law_1991", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1991", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Graduated from Harvard Law School.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "obama_wedding_1992_v4", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "1992-10-03", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Married Michelle Robinson.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Obama Foundation", + "url": "https://obama.org/about/administration/chicago-where-it-began/", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "obama_illinois_senate_1996_v4", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1996-11-05", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Elected to the Illinois State Senate.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_Senate_career_of_Barack_Obama", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "obama_malia_1998", + "domain": "family", + "date": "1998-07-04", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Daughter Malia was born.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malia_Obama", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "obama_us_senate_2004", + "domain": "career", + "date": "2004-11-02", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Elected to the United States Senate.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_Senate_election_in_Illinois", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "obama_presidential_election_2008_v4", + "domain": "career", + "date": "2008-11-04", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Elected President of the United States.", + "source": { + "publisher": "White House Archives", + "url": "https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/1600/presidents/barackobama/", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "19:24", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results." + }, + { + "case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "Angelina Jolie", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1975-06-04", + "time": "09:09", + "place": "Los Angeles, California, United States", + "latitude": 34.0961, + "longitude": -118.2944, + "timezone_offset": -7.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Jolie%2C_Angelina", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "jolie_gia_1998", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1998", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Starred in the television film Gia.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angelina_Jolie", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "jolie_oscar_2000", + "domain": "career", + "date": "2000-03-26", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Won the Academy Award for supporting actress.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences", + "url": "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2000", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "jolie_thornton_2000", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2000-05-05", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Married Billy Bob Thornton.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", + "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Angelina-Jolie", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "jolie_maddox_2002", + "domain": "family", + "date": "2002-03-10", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Adopted Maddox from Cambodia.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angelina_Jolie", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "jolie_shiloh_2006", + "domain": "family", + "date": "2006-05-27", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Daughter Shiloh was born.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shiloh_Jolie", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "jolie_mastectomy_2013", + "domain": "health_pressure", + "date": "2013", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Underwent preventive double mastectomy treatment.", + "source": { + "publisher": "The New York Times", + "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/14/opinion/my-medical-choice.html", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "jolie_marriage_2014", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2014-08-23", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Married Brad Pitt.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", + "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Angelina-Jolie", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "jolie_divorce_filed_2016", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2016-09-19", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Filed for divorce from Brad Pitt.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angelina_Jolie", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "09:09", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results." + }, + { + "case_id": "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "Tiger Woods", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1975-12-30", + "time": "22:50", + "place": "Long Beach, California, United States", + "latitude": 33.7667, + "longitude": -118.1833, + "timezone_offset": -8.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Woods%2C_Tiger", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "woods_stanford_1994", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1994", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Enrolled at Stanford University.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_Woods", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "woods_turned_professional_1996", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1996", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Turned professional as a golfer.", + "source": { + "publisher": "PGA Tour", + "url": "https://www.pgatour.com/player/08793/tiger-woods/bio", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "woods_masters_1997", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1997-04-13", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Won the Masters Tournament.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Masters_Tournament", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "woods_marriage_2004", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2004-10-05", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Married Elin Nordegren.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", + "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tiger-Woods", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "woods_sam_2007", + "domain": "family", + "date": "2007-06-18", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Daughter Sam was born.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_Woods", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "woods_divorce_2010", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2010-08-23", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Divorce from Elin Nordegren was finalized.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_Woods", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "woods_car_crash_2021", + "domain": "health_pressure", + "date": "2021-02-23", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Sustained serious injuries in a motor-vehicle crash.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_Woods", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "22:50", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; 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recorded in the sweep results." + }, + { + "case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "Elizabeth Montgomery", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1933-04-15", + "time": "16:38", + "place": "Los Angeles, California, United States", + "latitude": 34.05, + "longitude": -118.25, + "timezone_offset": -8.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Montgomery%2C_Elizabeth", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "montgomery_academy_1951", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1951", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Studied at the American Academy of Dramatic Arts.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Montgomery", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "montgomery_first_marriage_1954", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "1954", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Married Frederick Gallatin Cammann.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Montgomery", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "montgomery_marriage_asher_1963", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "1963", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Married producer William Asher.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Montgomery", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "montgomery_bewitched_1964", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1964-09-17", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Bewitched premiered on television.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bewitched", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "montgomery_william_jr_1964", + "domain": "family", + "date": "1964-07-24", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Son William Asher Jr. was born.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Montgomery", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "montgomery_moved_into_series_fame_1964b", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1966", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Won a Golden Globe for Bewitched.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Montgomery", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "montgomery_cancer_1995", + "domain": "health_pressure", + "date": "1995", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Was diagnosed with colorectal cancer and died later that year.", + "source": { + "publisher": "The New York Times", + "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/1995/05/19/obituaries/elizabeth-montgomery-62-star-of-the-tv-comedy-bewitched.html", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "16:38", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results." + }, + { + "case_id": "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "Pablo Picasso", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1881-10-25", + "time": "23:15", + "place": "Malaga, Spain", + "latitude": 36.7167, + "longitude": -4.4167, + "timezone_offset": -0.29444, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Picasso%2C_Pablo", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "picasso_llotja_1895", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1895", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Entered the School of Fine Arts in Barcelona.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", + "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Pablo-Picasso", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "picasso_moved_paris_1904", + "domain": "relocation", + "date": "1904", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Settled permanently in Paris.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", + "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Pablo-Picasso/Blue-Period", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "picasso_demoiselles_1907", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1907", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Painted Les Demoiselles d'Avignon.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Museum of Modern Art", + "url": "https://www.moma.org/collection/works/79766", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "picasso_marriage_1918", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "1918-07-12", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Married Olga Khokhlova.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pablo_Picasso", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "picasso_paulo_1921", + "domain": "family", + "date": "1921-02-04", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Son Paulo was born.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paulo_Picasso", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "picasso_guernica_1937", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1937", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Created and exhibited Guernica.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Museum of Modern Art", + "url": "https://www.moma.org/collection/works/79018", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "picasso_jacqueline_1961", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "1961-03-02", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Married Jacqueline Roque.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pablo_Picasso", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "23:15", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; 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recorded in the sweep results." + }, + { + "case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1960-02-19", + "time": "15:30", + "place": "London, England", + "latitude": 51.5, + "longitude": -0.1667, + "timezone_offset": 0.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Andrew%2C_Prince", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "andrew_gordonstoun_1970s", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1979", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Completed schooling at Gordonstoun.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", + "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Prince-Andrew-duke-of-York", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "andrew_royal_navy_1979", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1979", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Entered the Royal Navy as an officer trainee.", + "source": { + "publisher": "The Royal Family", + "url": "https://www.royal.uk/the-duke-of-york", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "andrew_falklands_1982", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1982", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Served in the Falklands War as a helicopter pilot.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Andrew,_Duke_of_York", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "andrew_marriage_1986", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "1986-07-23", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Married Sarah Ferguson.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", + "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Prince-Andrew-duke-of-York", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "andrew_beatrice_1988", + "domain": "family", + "date": "1988-08-08", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Daughter Beatrice was born.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_Beatrice", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "andrew_eugenie_1990", + "domain": "family", + "date": "1990-03-23", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Daughter Eugenie was born.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_Eugenie", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "andrew_divorce_1996", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "1996-05-30", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Divorce from Sarah Ferguson became final.", + "source": { + "publisher": "The Royal Family", + "url": "https://www.royal.uk/duke-york", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "15:30", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results." + }, + { + "case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "Sean Lennon", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1975-10-09", + "time": "02:00", + "place": "Manhattan, New York, United States", + "latitude": 40.7667, + "longitude": -73.9833, + "timezone_offset": -4.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Lennon%2C_Sean", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "lennon_father_death_1980", + "domain": "family", + "date": "1980-12-08", + "precision": "day", + "description": "His father John Lennon was murdered.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", + "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Lennon", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "lennon_rosey_1980s", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1986", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Attended Institut Le Rosey in Switzerland.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Lennon", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "lennon_columbia_1990s", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1995", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Attended Columbia University.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Lennon", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "lennon_into_sun_1998", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1998-05-19", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Released his debut album Into the Sun.", + "source": { + "publisher": "AllMusic", + "url": "https://www.allmusic.com/album/into-the-sun-mw0000036772", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "lennon_friendly_fire_2006", + "domain": "career", + "date": "2006-09-26", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Released the album Friendly Fire.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_Fire_(Sean_Lennon_album)", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "lennon_ghost_2012", + "domain": "career", + "date": "2012", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Formed the duo The Ghost of a Saber Tooth Tiger.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Lennon", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "lennon_kemp_muhl", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2007", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Began a long-term relationship with Charlotte Kemp Muhl.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Lennon", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "02:00", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results." + }, + { + "case_id": "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "Joseph Kennedy III", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1980-10-04", + "time": "21:42", + "place": "Boston, Massachusetts, United States", + "latitude": 42.3667, + "longitude": -71.0667, + "timezone_offset": -4.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Kennedy%2C_Joseph_Patrick_III", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "kennedy_stanford_2003", + "domain": "education", + "date": "2003", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Graduated from Stanford University.", + "source": { + "publisher": "United States Congress", + "url": "https://bioguide.congress.gov/search/bio/K000379", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "kennedy_peace_corps_2004", + "domain": "relocation", + "date": "2004", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Joined the Peace Corps in the Dominican Republic.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "kennedy_harvard_law_2009", + "domain": "education", + "date": "2009", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Graduated from Harvard Law School.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "kennedy_elected_house_2012", + "domain": "career", + "date": "2012-11-06", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Was elected to the United States House of Representatives.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Massachusetts", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "kennedy_marriage_2012", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2012-12-01", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Married Lauren Birchfield.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "kennedy_daughter_2015", + "domain": "family", + "date": "2015", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Their first child was born.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "kennedy_senate_primary_2020", + "domain": "career", + "date": "2020-09-01", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Lost the Democratic Senate primary in Massachusetts.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Massachusetts", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "21:42", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results." + }, + { + "case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "Kurt Cobain", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1967-02-20", + "time": "19:38", + "place": "Aberdeen, Washington, United States", + "latitude": 46.9833, + "longitude": -123.8167, + "timezone_offset": -8.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Cobain%2C_Kurt", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "cobain_left_school_1985", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1985", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Dropped out of high school shortly before graduation.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Cobain", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "cobain_olympia_1987", + "domain": "relocation", + "date": "1987", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Moved to Olympia, Washington.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Cobain", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "cobain_bleach_1989", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1989-06-15", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Nirvana released Bleach.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bleach_(Nirvana_album)", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "cobain_nevermind_1991", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1991-09-24", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Nirvana released Nevermind.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Rock and Roll Hall of Fame", + "url": "https://www.rockhall.com/inductees/nirvana", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "cobain_marriage_1992", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "1992-02-24", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Married Courtney Love.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", + "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Kurt-Cobain", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "cobain_frances_1992", + "domain": "family", + "date": "1992-08-18", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Daughter Frances Bean was born.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frances_Bean_Cobain", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "cobain_overdose_1994", + "domain": "health_pressure", + "date": "1994-03-04", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Was hospitalized after an overdose in Rome.", + "source": { + "publisher": "The Seattle Times", + "url": "https://www.seattletimes.com/entertainment/music/kurt-cobain-a-timeline-of-his-life/", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "19:38", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results." + }, + { + "case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "John Robbins", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1947-10-26", + "time": "02:56", + "place": "Glendale, California, United States", + "latitude": 34.15, + "longitude": -118.25, + "timezone_offset": -8.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Robbins%2C_John", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "robbins_marriage_1968", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "1967-03-10", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Married Deo Robbins.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "robbins_berkeley_1969", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1969", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Graduated from the University of California, Berkeley.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "robbins_antioch_1976", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1976", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Received a master's degree from Antioch College.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "robbins_diet_book_1987", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1987", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Published Diet for a New America.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "robbins_earthsave_1988", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1988", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Founded the organization EarthSave.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "robbins_health_book_1996", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1996", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Published Reclaiming Our Health.", + "source": { + "publisher": "John Robbins", + "url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/books/", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "robbins_death_2025", + "domain": "health_pressure", + "date": "2025-06-11", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Died in Soquel, California.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "02:56", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results." + }, + { + "case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "Chad Everett", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1937-06-11", + "time": "22:20", + "place": "South Bend, Indiana, United States", + "latitude": 41.6833, + "longitude": -86.25, + "timezone_offset": -5.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Everett%2C_Chad", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "everett_wayne_state_1950s", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1957", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Attended Wayne State University.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Everett", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "everett_moved_hollywood_1960", + "domain": "relocation", + "date": "1960", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Moved to Hollywood under a studio contract.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Everett", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "everett_marriage_1966", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "1966-05-22", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Married actress Shelby Grant.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Everett", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "everett_katherine_1967", + "domain": "family", + "date": "1967", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Daughter Katherine was born.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Everett", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "everett_medical_center_1969", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1969", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Began starring in Medical Center.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_Center_(TV_series)", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "everett_airplane_ii_1982", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1982", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Appeared in Airplane II: The Sequel.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Everett", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "everett_lung_cancer_2012", + "domain": "health_pressure", + "date": "2012", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Died after a battle with lung cancer.", + "source": { + "publisher": "The New York Times", + "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/arts/television/chad-everett-medical-center-star-dies-at-75.html", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "22:20", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results." + }, + { + "case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "Bernd Eichinger", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1949-04-11", + "time": "13:15", + "place": "Neuburg an der Donau, Germany", + "latitude": 48.7333, + "longitude": 11.1833, + "timezone_offset": 2.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Eichinger%2C_Bernd", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "eichinger_hff_1970s", + "domain": "education", + "date": "1973", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Studied at the University of Television and Film Munich.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernd_Eichinger", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "eichinger_constantin_1979", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1979", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Bought a stake in Neue Constantin Film and became executive director.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constantin_Film", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "eichinger_name_of_rose_1986", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1986", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Produced The Name of the Rose.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Name_of_the_Rose_(film)", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "eichinger_summit_1991", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1991", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Co-founded Summit Entertainment.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summit_Entertainment", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "eichinger_nina_1994", + "domain": "family", + "date": "1994", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Daughter Nina was born.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernd_Eichinger", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "eichinger_marriage_2006", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2006", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Married Katja Hofmann.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Reuters", + "url": "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-berndeichinger/film-producer-bernd-eichinger-dies-at-61-idUSTRE70O6BJ20110125", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "eichinger_heart_2011", + "domain": "health_pressure", + "date": "2011-01-24", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Died of a heart attack in Los Angeles.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernd_Eichinger", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "13:15", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results." + }, + { + "case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout", + "subject_label": "Iwao Takamoto", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1925-04-29", + "time": "20:00", + "place": "Los Angeles, California, United States", + "latitude": 34.05, + "longitude": -118.25, + "timezone_offset": -8.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Takamoto%2C_Iwao", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record" + } + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "takamoto_manzanar_1942", + "domain": "relocation", + "date": "1942", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Was sent with his family to the Manzanar internment camp.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1945", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Joined Walt Disney Animation Studios.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "takamoto_cinderella_1950", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1950", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Worked as a character artist on Cinderella.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "takamoto_marriage_shattuck_1957", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "1957", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Married Jane M. Shattuck.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "takamoto_hanna_barbera_1961", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1961", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Moved to Hanna-Barbera and began designing its characters.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Animation Magazine", + "url": "https://www.animationmagazine.net/2007/01/animation-legend-iwao-takamoto-dies/", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "takamoto_marriage_farber_1964", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "1964", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Married Barbara Farber.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "takamoto_scooby_1969", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1969", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Scooby-Doo, Where Are You! premiered with his character design.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scooby-Doo,_Where_Are_You!", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "takamoto_heart_attack_2007", + "domain": "health_pressure", + "date": "2007-01-08", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Died following a heart attack.", + "source": { + "publisher": "The New York Times", + "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/10/arts/10takamoto.html", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "20:00", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results." + } + ], + "boundary": "Not a sealed blind holdout. Events are public biographies. Do not mix these numbers with upstream true-node runs." +} diff --git a/scripts/research/holdout_v4_build.py b/scripts/research/holdout_v4_build.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ced4d215 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/research/holdout_v4_build.py @@ -0,0 +1,305 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""Build minute_rectification_holdout_v4 from the corrected v3 public AA set. + +Adds dated public events so each case has at least 7 events and 4 domains. +Does not use private user data. Working dates for the two v3 audit errors +are the verified public dates. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +import sys +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2] +V3_PATH = ROOT / "references" / "real_case_calibration" / "minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json" +V4_PATH = ROOT / "references" / "real_case_calibration" / "minute_rectification_holdout_v4.json" + +RADII = (10, 30, 60) +MIN_EVENTS = 7 +MIN_DOMAINS = 4 + + +def event( + event_id: str, + domain: str, + date: str, + precision: str, + description: str, + publisher: str, + url: str, +) -> dict[str, Any]: + return { + "id": event_id, + "domain": domain, + "date": date, + "precision": precision, + "description": description, + "source": { + "publisher": publisher, + "url": url, + "independent_of_birth_source": True, + }, + } + + +WIKI = "Wikipedia" +BRIT = "Encyclopaedia Britannica" +OSCARS = "Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences" + +# Full event lists replace the 3-event v3 rows. Birth records stay from v3. +EVENTS: dict[str, list[dict[str, Any]]] = { + "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("obama_columbia_1983", "education", "1983", "year", "Graduated from Columbia University.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama"), + event("obama_chicago_1985", "relocation", "1985", "year", "Moved to Chicago as a community organizer.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Barack-Obama"), + event("obama_harvard_law_1991", "education", "1991", "year", "Graduated from Harvard Law School.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama"), + event("obama_wedding_1992_v4", "relationship", "1992-10-03", "day", "Married Michelle Robinson.", "Obama Foundation", "https://obama.org/about/administration/chicago-where-it-began/"), + event("obama_illinois_senate_1996_v4", "career", "1996-11-05", "day", "Elected to the Illinois State Senate.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_Senate_career_of_Barack_Obama"), + event("obama_malia_1998", "family", "1998-07-04", "day", "Daughter Malia was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malia_Obama"), + event("obama_us_senate_2004", "career", "2004-11-02", "day", "Elected to the United States Senate.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_Senate_election_in_Illinois"), + event("obama_presidential_election_2008_v4", "career", "2008-11-04", "day", "Elected President of the United States.", "White House Archives", "https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/1600/presidents/barackobama/"), + ], + "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("jolie_gia_1998", "career", "1998", "year", "Starred in the television film Gia.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angelina_Jolie"), + event("jolie_oscar_2000", "career", "2000-03-26", "day", "Won the Academy Award for supporting actress.", OSCARS, "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2000"), + event("jolie_thornton_2000", "relationship", "2000-05-05", "day", "Married Billy Bob Thornton.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Angelina-Jolie"), + event("jolie_maddox_2002", "family", "2002-03-10", "day", "Adopted Maddox from Cambodia.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angelina_Jolie"), + event("jolie_shiloh_2006", "family", "2006-05-27", "day", "Daughter Shiloh was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shiloh_Jolie"), + event("jolie_mastectomy_2013", "health_pressure", "2013", "year", "Underwent preventive double mastectomy treatment.", "The New York Times", "https://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/14/opinion/my-medical-choice.html"), + event("jolie_marriage_2014", "relationship", "2014-08-23", "day", "Married Brad Pitt.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Angelina-Jolie"), + event("jolie_divorce_filed_2016", "relationship", "2016-09-19", "day", "Filed for divorce from Brad Pitt.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angelina_Jolie"), + ], + "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("woods_stanford_1994", "education", "1994", "year", "Enrolled at Stanford University.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_Woods"), + event("woods_turned_professional_1996", "career", "1996", "year", "Turned professional as a golfer.", "PGA Tour", "https://www.pgatour.com/player/08793/tiger-woods/bio"), + event("woods_masters_1997", "career", "1997-04-13", "day", "Won the Masters Tournament.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Masters_Tournament"), + event("woods_marriage_2004", "relationship", "2004-10-05", "day", "Married Elin Nordegren.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tiger-Woods"), + event("woods_sam_2007", "family", "2007-06-18", "day", "Daughter Sam was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_Woods"), + event("woods_divorce_2010", "relationship", "2010-08-23", "day", "Divorce from Elin Nordegren was finalized.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_Woods"), + event("woods_car_crash_2021", "health_pressure", "2021-02-23", "day", "Sustained serious injuries in a motor-vehicle crash.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_Woods"), + ], + "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("taylor_moved_us_1939", "relocation", "1939", "year", "The family moved from London to the United States.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Elizabeth-Taylor-American-actress"), + event("taylor_national_velvet_1944", "career", "1944", "year", "Starred in National Velvet.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Taylor"), + event("taylor_first_marriage_1950", "relationship", "1950-05-06", "day", "Married Conrad Hilton Jr.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Elizabeth-Taylor-American-actress"), + event("taylor_first_child_1953", "family", "1953-01-06", "day", "Her first child was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Taylor"), + event("taylor_oscar_1961", "career", "1961-04-17", "day", "Won the Academy Award for Butterfield 8.", OSCARS, "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/1961"), + event("taylor_burton_marriage_1964", "relationship", "1964-03-15", "day", "Married Richard Burton.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Taylor"), + event("taylor_brain_surgery_1997", "health_pressure", "1997", "year", "Underwent surgery for a benign brain tumor.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Elizabeth-Taylor-American-actress/Final-films-and-HIV-AIDS-activism"), + ], + "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("montgomery_academy_1951", "education", "1951", "year", "Studied at the American Academy of Dramatic Arts.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Montgomery"), + event("montgomery_first_marriage_1954", "relationship", "1954", "year", "Married Frederick Gallatin Cammann.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Montgomery"), + event("montgomery_marriage_asher_1963", "relationship", "1963", "year", "Married producer William Asher.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Montgomery"), + event("montgomery_bewitched_1964", "career", "1964-09-17", "day", "Bewitched premiered on television.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bewitched"), + event("montgomery_william_jr_1964", "family", "1964-07-24", "day", "Son William Asher Jr. was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Montgomery"), + event("montgomery_moved_into_series_fame_1964b", "career", "1966", "year", "Won a Golden Globe for Bewitched.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Montgomery"), + event("montgomery_cancer_1995", "health_pressure", "1995", "year", "Was diagnosed with colorectal cancer and died later that year.", "The New York Times", "https://www.nytimes.com/1995/05/19/obituaries/elizabeth-montgomery-62-star-of-the-tv-comedy-bewitched.html"), + ], + "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("picasso_llotja_1895", "education", "1895", "year", "Entered the School of Fine Arts in Barcelona.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Pablo-Picasso"), + event("picasso_moved_paris_1904", "relocation", "1904", "year", "Settled permanently in Paris.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Pablo-Picasso/Blue-Period"), + event("picasso_demoiselles_1907", "career", "1907", "year", "Painted Les Demoiselles d'Avignon.", "Museum of Modern Art", "https://www.moma.org/collection/works/79766"), + event("picasso_marriage_1918", "relationship", "1918-07-12", "day", "Married Olga Khokhlova.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pablo_Picasso"), + event("picasso_paulo_1921", "family", "1921-02-04", "day", "Son Paulo was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paulo_Picasso"), + event("picasso_guernica_1937", "career", "1937", "year", "Created and exhibited Guernica.", "Museum of Modern Art", "https://www.moma.org/collection/works/79018"), + event("picasso_jacqueline_1961", "relationship", "1961-03-02", "day", "Married Jacqueline Roque.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pablo_Picasso"), + ], + "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("freud_vienna_md_1881", "education", "1881", "year", "Received his medical degree from the University of Vienna.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Sigmund-Freud"), + event("freud_marriage_1886", "relationship", "1886-09-14", "day", "Married Martha Bernays.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmund_Freud"), + event("freud_anna_1895", "family", "1895-12-03", "day", "Daughter Anna Freud was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Freud"), + event("freud_dreams_publication_1899", "career", "1899", "year", "Published The Interpretation of Dreams.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Sigmund-Freud/Psychoanalytic-theory"), + event("freud_clark_1909", "career", "1909", "year", "Lectured at Clark University in the United States.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmund_Freud"), + event("freud_cancer_1923", "health_pressure", "1923", "year", "Was diagnosed with cancer of the jaw.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Sigmund-Freud"), + event("freud_moved_london_1938", "relocation", "1938", "year", "Fled Nazi-occupied Vienna and settled in London.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freud_Museum"), + ], + "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("hayek_iberoamericana_1980s", "education", "1989", "year", "Left Universidad Iberoamericana to act full time.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salma_Hayek"), + event("hayek_moved_los_angeles_1991", "relocation", "1991", "year", "Moved to Los Angeles to pursue acting in Hollywood.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Salma-Hayek"), + event("hayek_desperado_1995", "career", "1995", "year", "Starred in Desperado.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salma_Hayek"), + event("hayek_frida_2002", "career", "2002", "year", "Produced and starred in Frida.", OSCARS, "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2003"), + event("hayek_valentina_2007", "family", "2007-09-21", "day", "Daughter Valentina was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salma_Hayek"), + event("hayek_marriage_2009", "relationship", "2009-02-14", "day", "Married Francois-Henri Pinault.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Salma-Hayek/Personal-life"), + event("hayek_oscar_nomination_2003", "career", "2003-03-23", "day", "Received an Academy Award nomination for Frida.", OSCARS, "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2003"), + ], + "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("reich_cornell_degree_1957", "education", "1957", "year", "Graduated from Cornell University.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Steve-Reich"), + event("reich_juilliard_1961", "education", "1961", "year", "Completed studies at the Juilliard School.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Reich"), + event("reich_moved_california_1963", "relocation", "1963", "year", "Moved to the San Francisco Bay Area.", "Boosey and Hawkes", "https://www.boosey.com/composer/Steve+Reich"), + event("reich_return_ny_1965", "relocation", "1965", "year", "Returned to New York.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Reich"), + event("reich_music_18_premiere_1976", "career", "1976-04-24", "day", "Music for 18 Musicians received its world premiere.", "Pulitzer Prizes", "https://www.pulitzer.org/winners/steve-reich"), + event("reich_korot_1976", "relationship", "1976", "year", "Married video artist Beryl Korot.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Reich"), + event("reich_pulitzer_2009", "career", "2009-04-20", "day", "Won the Pulitzer Prize for Music.", "Pulitzer Prizes", "https://www.pulitzer.org/winners/steve-reich"), + ], + "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("brooks_cmu_1960s", "education", "1966", "year", "Attended Carnegie Mellon University.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Brooks"), + event("brooks_real_life_1979", "career", "1979", "year", "Made his feature directing debut with Real Life.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Brooks"), + event("brooks_lost_in_america_1985", "career", "1985", "year", "Wrote and directed Lost in America.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_in_America"), + event("brooks_oscar_nomination_1988", "career", "1988-04-11", "day", "Received an Academy Award nomination for Broadcast News.", OSCARS, "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/1988"), + event("brooks_marriage_1997", "relationship", "1997", "year", "Married Kimberly Shlain.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimberly_Brooks_(artist)"), + event("brooks_jacob_1998", "family", "1998", "year", "Son Jacob was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Brooks"), + event("brooks_finding_nemo_2003", "career", "2003", "year", "Voiced Marlin in Finding Nemo.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Brooks"), + ], + "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("ryan_miami_1992", "education", "1992", "year", "Graduated from Miami University.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Paul-Ryan"), + event("ryan_elected_house_1998", "career", "1998-11-03", "day", "Was elected to the United States House of Representatives.", "United States House of Representatives", "https://history.house.gov/People/Detail/20147"), + event("ryan_marriage_2000", "relationship", "2000-12-02", "day", "Married Janna Little.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Paul-Ryan"), + event("ryan_liza_2004", "family", "2004", "year", "Daughter Liza was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan"), + event("ryan_vp_nominee_2012", "career", "2012-08-11", "day", "Was named the Republican vice-presidential nominee.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan"), + event("ryan_speaker_2015", "career", "2015-10-29", "day", "Was elected Speaker of the House.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2015_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election"), + event("ryan_retire_2018", "career", "2018-04-11", "day", "Announced he would not seek re-election.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan"), + ], + "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("kennedy_missouri_1940s", "education", "1947", "year", "Attended the University of Missouri.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Kennedy_(television_host)"), + event("kennedy_moved_la_1950s", "relocation", "1950", "year", "Moved into network television in Los Angeles.", "The Hollywood Reporter", "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/tom-kennedy-dead-game-show-host-name-that-tune-was-93-4074025/"), + event("kennedy_marriage_1952", "relationship", "1952", "year", "Married Betty Gevedon.", "The Hollywood Reporter", "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/tom-kennedy-dead-game-show-host-name-that-tune-was-93-4074025/"), + event("kennedy_big_game_1958", "career", "1958", "year", "Began hosting his first national game show, The Big Game.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Kennedy_(television_host)"), + event("kennedy_you_dont_say_1963", "career", "1963", "year", "Began hosting You Don't Say!", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/You_Don%27t_Say!"), + event("kennedy_name_that_tune_1974", "career", "1974", "year", "Began hosting the syndicated Name That Tune.", "The Hollywood Reporter", "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/tom-kennedy-dead-game-show-host-name-that-tune-was-93-4074025/"), + event("kennedy_death_2020", "health_pressure", "2020-10-07", "day", "Died in a care facility in Oxnard, California.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Kennedy_(television_host)"), + ], + "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("andrew_gordonstoun_1970s", "education", "1979", "year", "Completed schooling at Gordonstoun.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Prince-Andrew-duke-of-York"), + event("andrew_royal_navy_1979", "career", "1979", "year", "Entered the Royal Navy as an officer trainee.", "The Royal Family", "https://www.royal.uk/the-duke-of-york"), + event("andrew_falklands_1982", "career", "1982", "year", "Served in the Falklands War as a helicopter pilot.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Andrew,_Duke_of_York"), + event("andrew_marriage_1986", "relationship", "1986-07-23", "day", "Married Sarah Ferguson.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Prince-Andrew-duke-of-York"), + event("andrew_beatrice_1988", "family", "1988-08-08", "day", "Daughter Beatrice was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_Beatrice"), + event("andrew_eugenie_1990", "family", "1990-03-23", "day", "Daughter Eugenie was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_Eugenie"), + event("andrew_divorce_1996", "relationship", "1996-05-30", "day", "Divorce from Sarah Ferguson became final.", "The Royal Family", "https://www.royal.uk/duke-york"), + ], + "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("lennon_father_death_1980", "family", "1980-12-08", "day", "His father John Lennon was murdered.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Lennon"), + event("lennon_rosey_1980s", "education", "1986", "year", "Attended Institut Le Rosey in Switzerland.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Lennon"), + event("lennon_columbia_1990s", "education", "1995", "year", "Attended Columbia University.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Lennon"), + event("lennon_into_sun_1998", "career", "1998-05-19", "day", "Released his debut album Into the Sun.", "AllMusic", "https://www.allmusic.com/album/into-the-sun-mw0000036772"), + event("lennon_friendly_fire_2006", "career", "2006-09-26", "day", "Released the album Friendly Fire.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_Fire_(Sean_Lennon_album)"), + event("lennon_ghost_2012", "career", "2012", "year", "Formed the duo The Ghost of a Saber Tooth Tiger.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Lennon"), + event("lennon_kemp_muhl", "relationship", "2007", "year", "Began a long-term relationship with Charlotte Kemp Muhl.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Lennon"), + ], + "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("kennedy_stanford_2003", "education", "2003", "year", "Graduated from Stanford University.", "United States Congress", "https://bioguide.congress.gov/search/bio/K000379"), + event("kennedy_peace_corps_2004", "relocation", "2004", "year", "Joined the Peace Corps in the Dominican Republic.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III"), + event("kennedy_harvard_law_2009", "education", "2009", "year", "Graduated from Harvard Law School.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III"), + event("kennedy_elected_house_2012", "career", "2012-11-06", "day", "Was elected to the United States House of Representatives.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Massachusetts"), + event("kennedy_marriage_2012", "relationship", "2012-12-01", "day", "Married Lauren Birchfield.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III"), + event("kennedy_daughter_2015", "family", "2015", "year", "Their first child was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III"), + event("kennedy_senate_primary_2020", "career", "2020-09-01", "day", "Lost the Democratic Senate primary in Massachusetts.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Massachusetts"), + ], + "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("cobain_left_school_1985", "education", "1985", "year", "Dropped out of high school shortly before graduation.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Cobain"), + event("cobain_olympia_1987", "relocation", "1987", "year", "Moved to Olympia, Washington.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Cobain"), + event("cobain_bleach_1989", "career", "1989-06-15", "day", "Nirvana released Bleach.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bleach_(Nirvana_album)"), + event("cobain_nevermind_1991", "career", "1991-09-24", "day", "Nirvana released Nevermind.", "Rock and Roll Hall of Fame", "https://www.rockhall.com/inductees/nirvana"), + event("cobain_marriage_1992", "relationship", "1992-02-24", "day", "Married Courtney Love.", BRIT, "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Kurt-Cobain"), + event("cobain_frances_1992", "family", "1992-08-18", "day", "Daughter Frances Bean was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frances_Bean_Cobain"), + event("cobain_overdose_1994", "health_pressure", "1994-03-04", "day", "Was hospitalized after an overdose in Rome.", "The Seattle Times", "https://www.seattletimes.com/entertainment/music/kurt-cobain-a-timeline-of-his-life/"), + ], + "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("robbins_marriage_1968", "relationship", "1967-03-10", "day", "Married Deo Robbins.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)"), + event("robbins_berkeley_1969", "education", "1969", "year", "Graduated from the University of California, Berkeley.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)"), + event("robbins_antioch_1976", "education", "1976", "year", "Received a master's degree from Antioch College.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)"), + event("robbins_diet_book_1987", "career", "1987", "year", "Published Diet for a New America.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)"), + event("robbins_earthsave_1988", "career", "1988", "year", "Founded the organization EarthSave.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)"), + event("robbins_health_book_1996", "career", "1996", "year", "Published Reclaiming Our Health.", "John Robbins", "https://www.johnrobbins.info/books/"), + event("robbins_death_2025", "health_pressure", "2025-06-11", "day", "Died in Soquel, California.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)"), + ], + "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("everett_wayne_state_1950s", "education", "1957", "year", "Attended Wayne State University.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Everett"), + event("everett_moved_hollywood_1960", "relocation", "1960", "year", "Moved to Hollywood under a studio contract.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Everett"), + event("everett_marriage_1966", "relationship", "1966-05-22", "day", "Married actress Shelby Grant.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Everett"), + event("everett_katherine_1967", "family", "1967", "year", "Daughter Katherine was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Everett"), + event("everett_medical_center_1969", "career", "1969", "year", "Began starring in Medical Center.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_Center_(TV_series)"), + event("everett_airplane_ii_1982", "career", "1982", "year", "Appeared in Airplane II: The Sequel.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Everett"), + event("everett_lung_cancer_2012", "health_pressure", "2012", "year", "Died after a battle with lung cancer.", "The New York Times", "https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/arts/television/chad-everett-medical-center-star-dies-at-75.html"), + ], + "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("eichinger_hff_1970s", "education", "1973", "year", "Studied at the University of Television and Film Munich.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernd_Eichinger"), + event("eichinger_constantin_1979", "career", "1979", "year", "Bought a stake in Neue Constantin Film and became executive director.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constantin_Film"), + event("eichinger_name_of_rose_1986", "career", "1986", "year", "Produced The Name of the Rose.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Name_of_the_Rose_(film)"), + event("eichinger_summit_1991", "career", "1991", "year", "Co-founded Summit Entertainment.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summit_Entertainment"), + event("eichinger_nina_1994", "family", "1994", "year", "Daughter Nina was born.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernd_Eichinger"), + event("eichinger_marriage_2006", "relationship", "2006", "year", "Married Katja Hofmann.", "Reuters", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-berndeichinger/film-producer-bernd-eichinger-dies-at-61-idUSTRE70O6BJ20110125"), + event("eichinger_heart_2011", "health_pressure", "2011-01-24", "day", "Died of a heart attack in Los Angeles.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernd_Eichinger"), + ], + "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout": [ + event("takamoto_manzanar_1942", "relocation", "1942", "year", "Was sent with his family to the Manzanar internment camp.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto"), + event("takamoto_joined_disney_1947", "career", "1945", "year", "Joined Walt Disney Animation Studios.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto"), + event("takamoto_cinderella_1950", "career", "1950", "year", "Worked as a character artist on Cinderella.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto"), + event("takamoto_marriage_shattuck_1957", "relationship", "1957", "year", "Married Jane M. Shattuck.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto"), + event("takamoto_hanna_barbera_1961", "career", "1961", "year", "Moved to Hanna-Barbera and began designing its characters.", "Animation Magazine", "https://www.animationmagazine.net/2007/01/animation-legend-iwao-takamoto-dies/"), + event("takamoto_marriage_farber_1964", "relationship", "1964", "year", "Married Barbara Farber.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto"), + event("takamoto_scooby_1969", "career", "1969", "year", "Scooby-Doo, Where Are You! premiered with his character design.", WIKI, "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scooby-Doo,_Where_Are_You!"), + event("takamoto_heart_attack_2007", "health_pressure", "2007-01-08", "day", "Died following a heart attack.", "The New York Times", "https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/10/arts/10takamoto.html"), + ], +} + + +def _validate(case: dict[str, Any]) -> None: + events = case["events"] + domains = {str(item["domain"]) for item in events} + if len(events) < MIN_EVENTS: + raise SystemExit(f"{case['case_id']}: {len(events)} events < {MIN_EVENTS}") + if len(domains) < MIN_DOMAINS: + raise SystemExit(f"{case['case_id']}: {sorted(domains)} domains < {MIN_DOMAINS}") + rating = ((case.get("birth") or {}).get("source") or {}).get("rodden_rating") + if rating != "AA": + raise SystemExit(f"{case['case_id']}: rodden_rating {rating!r} is not AA") + + +def build() -> dict[str, Any]: + v3 = json.loads(V3_PATH.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) + cases = [] + for row in v3["cases"]: + case_id = str(row["case_id"]) + extra = EVENTS.get(case_id) + if extra is None: + raise SystemExit(f"missing v4 events for {case_id}") + case = { + **row, + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": True, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "candidate_radii_minutes": list(RADII), + "true_minute": str(row["birth"]["time"])[:5], + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results.", + "events": extra, + } + _validate(case) + cases.append(case) + return { + "schema_version": "minute-rectification-holdout-v4", + "benchmark_id": "minute_rectification_scale_holdout_v4", + "description": "Public Rodden-AA minute set with at least 7 dated events and 4 domains per case, scored at ±10 / ±30 / ±60. Open evaluation for scoring-scale research, not a sealed blind release gate.", + "truth_hidden_from_ranker": False, + "frozen_before_replay": False, + "source_audit_status": "public_biography_expansion_2026_09_14", + "ayanamsa": "raman", + "node_mode": "mean", + "candidate_radii_minutes": list(RADII), + "minimum_gate": { + "public_aa_cases": len(cases), + "events_per_case": MIN_EVENTS, + "domains_per_case": MIN_DOMAINS, + }, + "v3_date_corrections": [ + {"event_id": "robbins_marriage_1968", "submitted": "1968", "working": "1967-03-10"}, + {"event_id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947", "submitted": "1947", "working": "1945"}, + ], + "parent_dataset": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json", + "cases": cases, + "boundary": "Not a sealed blind holdout. Events are public biographies. Do not mix these numbers with upstream true-node runs.", + } + + +def main() -> int: + payload = build() + V4_PATH.write_text(json.dumps(payload, ensure_ascii=True, indent=2) + "\n", encoding="utf-8") + print(f"wrote {V4_PATH} cases={len(payload['cases'])}") + return 0 + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + sys.exit(main()) diff --git a/scripts/research/minute_resolution_lib.py b/scripts/research/minute_resolution_lib.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..94f08211 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/research/minute_resolution_lib.py @@ -0,0 +1,346 @@ +"""Pure helpers for the minute-resolution scoring sweep. No production defaults.""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import math +from collections.abc import Iterable, Sequence +from typing import Any + +from scripts.active_rectification_event_engine import DOMAIN_CONFIG +from scripts.rectification.candidate_contrast import ( + SIGNATURE_LAYERS, + cluster_contexts_by_signature, + context_time, + layer_value, + select_signature_representatives, +) +from scripts.rectification.scoring_service import PRECISION_WEIGHTS, _event_kind_factor + +VARGA_RULE_WEIGHT = { + "vim_md_domain_varga": 2.0, + "vim_ad_domain_varga": 1.5, + "vim_pd_domain_varga": 0.75, +} + +KP_MATCH = { + "md": (0.50, 0.25), + "ad": (0.35, 0.15), + "pd": (0.20, 0.10), +} + +DOMAIN_SIGNATURE_LAYERS = { + "education": ("d24", "d5"), + "relocation": ("d4",), + "relationship": ("d9",), + "career": ("d10",), + "occupation": ("d10",), + "finance": ("d2", "d11"), + "health_pressure": ("d30",), + "family": ("d12", "d7", "d3"), +} + +EXTRA_LAYER_VARGA = { + "d2": "D2", + "d3": "D3", + "d5": "D5", + "d7": "D7", + "d11": "D11", + "d30": "D30", +} + +NARROW_WIDTH = 5 + + +def clock(value: str) -> int: + stamp = str(value)[:5] + return int(stamp[:2]) * 60 + int(stamp[3:5]) + + +def hhmm_from_minutes(value: int) -> str: + wrapped = value % 1440 + return f"{wrapped // 60:02d}:{wrapped % 60:02d}" + + +def shift_clock(value: str, delta: int) -> str: + return hhmm_from_minutes(clock(value) + delta) + + +def range_width(times: Sequence[str]) -> int | None: + clocks = sorted(clock(item) for item in times if str(item)[:5]) + if not clocks: + return None + return clocks[-1] - clocks[0] + 1 + + +def varga_divisor(count: int, mode: str) -> float: + n = max(int(count), 1) + if mode == "len": + return float(n) + if mode == "sqrt": + return math.sqrt(n) + if mode == "fixed2": + return 2.0 + return 2.0 * n + + +def rescale_varga_points( + points: float, + rule_ids: Sequence[str], + domain: str, + event_kind: str, + precision: str, + mode: str, +) -> float: + if mode == "2len": + return float(points) + prefixes, _houses = DOMAIN_CONFIG[domain] + n = max(len(prefixes), 1) + old_div = varga_divisor(n, "2len") + new_div = varga_divisor(n, mode) + if abs(old_div - new_div) < 1e-12: + return float(points) + delta_inner = 0.0 + for rule in rule_ids: + weight = VARGA_RULE_WEIGHT.get(str(rule)) + if weight is None: + continue + delta_inner += weight * (1.0 / new_div - 1.0 / old_div) + precision_w = PRECISION_WEIGHTS.get(precision, 1.0) + kind = _event_kind_factor(event_kind, rule_ids) + return round(float(points) + delta_inner * kind * (precision_w ** 2), 4) + + +def aggregate_samples(samples: Sequence[float], mode: str, temperature: float = 1.0) -> float: + values = [float(item) for item in samples] + if not values: + return 0.0 + if mode == "max": + return round(max(values), 4) + if mode == "lse": + temp = max(float(temperature), 1e-6) + peak = max(values) + mean_exp = sum(math.exp((item - peak) / temp) for item in values) / len(values) + return round(temp * math.log(mean_exp) + peak, 4) + return round(sum(values) / len(values), 4) + + +def subtract_event_floor(by_time: dict[str, float]) -> dict[str, float]: + if not by_time: + return {} + floor = min(by_time.values()) + return {time: round(score - floor, 4) for time, score in by_time.items()} + + +def shannon_entropy(weights: Iterable[float]) -> float: + values = [max(float(item), 0.0) for item in weights] + total = sum(values) + if total <= 0: + return 0.0 + entropy = 0.0 + for value in values: + if value <= 0: + continue + share = value / total + entropy -= share * math.log(share, 2) + return round(entropy, 6) + + +def kp_event_points( + context: dict[str, Any], + domain: str, + vim_lords: tuple[str, str, str], + weight: float, +) -> float: + feature = context.get("feature") if isinstance(context.get("feature"), dict) else {} + snapshot = feature.get("kp_cusps") if isinstance(feature.get("kp_cusps"), dict) else {} + if snapshot.get("status") != "executed": + return 0.0 + houses = snapshot.get("houses") if isinstance(snapshot.get("houses"), dict) else {} + _prefixes, target_houses = DOMAIN_CONFIG[domain] + points = 0.0 + md, ad, pd = vim_lords + for house in target_houses: + row = houses.get(str(house)) + if not isinstance(row, dict): + continue + sub = str(row.get("sub_lord") or "") + sub_sub = str(row.get("sub_sub_lord") or "") + for lord, (sub_w, sub_sub_w) in ( + (md, KP_MATCH["md"]), + (ad, KP_MATCH["ad"]), + (pd, KP_MATCH["pd"]), + ): + if lord and lord == sub: + points += sub_w + if lord and lord == sub_sub: + points += sub_sub_w + return round(points * float(weight), 4) + + +def kp_sub_lord_key(context: dict[str, Any], houses: Sequence[int]) -> tuple[str, ...]: + feature = context.get("feature") if isinstance(context.get("feature"), dict) else {} + snapshot = feature.get("kp_cusps") if isinstance(feature.get("kp_cusps"), dict) else {} + table = snapshot.get("houses") if isinstance(snapshot.get("houses"), dict) else {} + keys = [] + for house in houses: + row = table.get(str(house)) if isinstance(table.get(str(house)), dict) else {} + keys.append(str(row.get("sub_lord") or "")) + return tuple(keys) + + +def kp_changes_in_window(contexts: Sequence[dict[str, Any]], domain: str) -> int: + _prefixes, houses = DOMAIN_CONFIG[domain] + seen: list[tuple[str, ...]] = [] + for context in contexts: + key = kp_sub_lord_key(context, houses) + if not seen or seen[-1] != key: + seen.append(key) + return max(len(seen) - 1, 0) + + +def dynamic_signature_layers(domains: Sequence[str]) -> tuple[str, ...]: + layers = ["d1"] + for domain in domains: + for layer in DOMAIN_SIGNATURE_LAYERS.get(domain, ()): + if layer not in layers: + layers.append(layer) + return tuple(layers) + + +def layer_value_extended(context: dict[str, Any], layer: str) -> int | None: + if layer in SIGNATURE_LAYERS or layer == "md" or layer == "d1": + return layer_value(context, layer) + name = EXTRA_LAYER_VARGA.get(layer) + if not name: + return None + feature = context.get("feature") if isinstance(context.get("feature"), dict) else {} + vargas = feature.get("varga_ascendants") if isinstance(feature.get("varga_ascendants"), dict) else {} + raw = vargas.get(name) + return raw if isinstance(raw, int) else None + + +def cluster_contexts( + contexts: Sequence[dict[str, Any]], + layers: Sequence[str] | None = None, +) -> list[dict[str, Any]]: + if not layers or tuple(layers) == SIGNATURE_LAYERS: + return cluster_contexts_by_signature(contexts) + buckets: dict[tuple[int | None, ...], list[dict[str, Any]]] = {} + for context in contexts: + if not isinstance(context, dict): + continue + time = context_time(context) + if not time: + continue + signature = tuple(layer_value_extended(context, layer) for layer in layers) + buckets.setdefault(signature, []).append(context) + clusters: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] + for signature, members in buckets.items(): + ordered = sorted(members, key=lambda item: clock(str(context_time(item)))) + times = [str(context_time(item)) for item in ordered] + clusters.append({ + "signature": signature, + "signature_key": ",".join("x" if value is None else str(value) for value in signature), + "contexts": ordered, + "times": times, + "representative_time": times[len(times) // 2], + "representative": ordered[len(ordered) // 2], + }) + clusters.sort(key=lambda item: clock(item["representative_time"])) + return clusters + + +def public_rows( + rows: Sequence[dict[str, Any]], + contexts: Sequence[dict[str, Any]], + layers: Sequence[str] | None = None, +) -> list[dict[str, Any]]: + if not layers or tuple(layers) == SIGNATURE_LAYERS: + return select_signature_representatives(rows, contexts) + by_time = {str(row.get("time"))[:5]: row for row in rows if str(row.get("time"))} + clusters = cluster_contexts(contexts, layers) + from scripts.rectification.candidate_contrast import cap_clusters_by_adjacent_merge + clusters = cap_clusters_by_adjacent_merge(clusters, by_time) + representatives: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] + for cluster in clusters: + members = [by_time[time] for time in cluster["times"] if time in by_time] + if not members: + continue + best = max(members, key=lambda row: (float(row.get("score") or 0), str(row.get("time")))) + representatives.append({ + **best, + "cluster_times": [time for time in cluster["times"] if time in by_time], + }) + representatives.sort(key=lambda row: (-float(row.get("score") or 0), str(row.get("time")))) + return representatives or list(rows)[:1] + + +def cluster_of(true_time: str, clusters: Sequence[dict[str, Any]]) -> dict[str, Any] | None: + stamp = str(true_time)[:5] + for cluster in clusters: + times = [str(item)[:5] for item in cluster.get("times") or []] + if stamp in times: + return cluster + return None + + +def metrics_from_public( + public: Sequence[dict[str, Any]], + true_time: str, + window_times: Sequence[str], +) -> dict[str, Any]: + if not public: + return { + "top1_hit": False, + "coverage": False, + "width": None, + "tie": False, + "entropy": 0.0, + "truth_squeezed": True, + "too_narrow": False, + "leader_count": 0, + "public_count": 0, + "true_cluster_rank": None, + "true_cluster_size": 0, + } + scores = [float(row.get("score") or 0) for row in public] + best = max(scores) + leaders = [row for row in public if abs(float(row.get("score") or 0) - best) <= 1e-9] + delivered = [] + seen: set[str] = set() + for row in public: + for time in row.get("cluster_times") or [str(row.get("time"))[:5]]: + stamp = str(time)[:5] + if stamp not in seen: + seen.add(stamp) + delivered.append(stamp) + true = str(true_time)[:5] + true_in_leaders = any(true in (row.get("cluster_times") or [str(row.get("time"))[:5]]) for row in leaders) + if not true_in_leaders: + true_in_leaders = any(str(row.get("time"))[:5] == true for row in leaders) + rank = None + size = 0 + ordered = sorted(public, key=lambda row: (-float(row.get("score") or 0), str(row.get("time")))) + for index, row in enumerate(ordered, start=1): + members = [str(item)[:5] for item in (row.get("cluster_times") or [str(row.get("time"))[:5]])] + if true in members: + rank = index + size = len(members) + break + width = range_width(delivered) + second = sorted({round(float(row.get("score") or 0), 4) for row in public}, reverse=True) + tied = len(leaders) >= 2 or (len(second) >= 2 and abs(second[0] - second[1]) <= 1e-9) + return { + "top1_hit": true_in_leaders, + "coverage": true in seen, + "width": width, + "tie": tied, + "entropy": shannon_entropy(max(score, 0.0) for score in scores), + "truth_squeezed": true not in seen, + "too_narrow": width is not None and width <= NARROW_WIDTH and true in seen, + "leader_count": len(leaders), + "public_count": len(public), + "true_cluster_rank": rank, + "true_cluster_size": size, + "window_width": range_width(list(window_times)), + } diff --git a/scripts/research/minute_resolution_sweep.py b/scripts/research/minute_resolution_sweep.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3814505a --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/research/minute_resolution_sweep.py @@ -0,0 +1,599 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""Offline sweep of minute-resolution scoring changes. + +Reads production scoring modules. Does not change their defaults. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import json +import statistics +import sys +import traceback +from collections import defaultdict +from dataclasses import dataclass +from datetime import date, datetime +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any, Sequence + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2] +if str(ROOT) not in sys.path: + sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT)) + +from scripts.active_rectification_event_engine import ( # noqa: E402 + AYANAMSA, + DOMAIN_CONFIG, + NODE_MODE, + _active_vimshottari, + compute_candidate_static_contexts, + compute_event_candidate_rows, +) +from scripts.rectification.event_probes import discriminating_event_probes # noqa: E402 +from scripts.rectification.refinement_packet import window_scan # noqa: E402 +from scripts.rectification.scoring_service import ( # noqa: E402 + _kind_adjusted_evidence, + _legacy_request, + sample_event_dates, + score_from_matrix, + scoreable_request, +) +from scripts.research.minute_resolution_lib import ( # noqa: E402 + SIGNATURE_LAYERS, + aggregate_samples, + cluster_contexts, + cluster_of, + dynamic_signature_layers, + kp_changes_in_window, + kp_event_points, + metrics_from_public, + public_rows, + rescale_varga_points, + shannon_entropy, + subtract_event_floor, +) +from scripts.research.probe_supply_after_six import ( # noqa: E402 + ASK_COUNT, + apply_answer, + optimal_answer, + remaining_after_six, + request_from_case, + top1_hit, +) + +HOLDOUT = ROOT / "references" / "real_case_calibration" / "minute_rectification_holdout_v4.json" +REPORT_MD = ROOT / "docs" / "research" / "minute_resolution_2026_09_14.md" +REPORT_JSON = ROOT / "docs" / "research" / "minute_resolution_2026_09_14.json" +TODAY = date(2026, 9, 14) +RADII = (10, 30, 60) +MINUTE_STEP = 2 +ASK = ASK_COUNT + + +@dataclass(frozen=True) +class Variant: + name: str + r1: str = "2len" + r2: bool = False + r3: float | None = None + r4: str = "mean" + r5: bool = False + + @property + def uses_r3(self) -> bool: + return self.r3 is not None + + +def all_variants() -> list[Variant]: + rows = [ + Variant("baseline"), + Variant("R1@len", r1="len"), + Variant("R1@sqrt", r1="sqrt"), + Variant("R1@fixed2", r1="fixed2"), + Variant("R2", r2=True), + Variant("R3@0.5", r3=0.5), + Variant("R3@1.0", r3=1.0), + Variant("R3@2.0", r3=2.0), + Variant("R4@max", r4="max"), + Variant("R4@lse", r4="lse"), + Variant("R5", r5=True), + ] + keys = ("R1", "R2", "R3", "R4", "R5") + for i, left in enumerate(keys): + for right in keys[i + 1:]: + pair = {left, right} + rows.append(Variant( + f"{left}+{right}", + r1="len" if "R1" in pair else "2len", + r2="R2" in pair, + r3=(1.0 if "R3" in pair else None), + r4="lse" if "R4" in pair else "mean", + r5="R5" in pair, + )) + return rows + + +def scoring_request_for(case: dict[str, Any], radius: int) -> dict[str, Any]: + previous = case.get("candidate_radius_minutes") + case["candidate_radius_minutes"] = radius + try: + request = request_from_case(case) + finally: + if previous is None: + case.pop("candidate_radius_minutes", None) + else: + case["candidate_radius_minutes"] = previous + request["minute_step"] = MINUTE_STEP + request["ayanamsa"] = AYANAMSA + request["node_mode"] = NODE_MODE + return scoreable_request(request) + + +def event_at(sample: str) -> datetime: + return datetime.strptime(f"{sample} 12:00:00", "%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S") + + +def collect_samples( + request: dict[str, Any], + static_contexts: Sequence[dict[str, Any]], +) -> dict[str, Any]: + times = [ + item["feature"]["time"] if isinstance(item.get("feature"), dict) else item["candidate_at"].strftime("%H:%M") + for item in static_contexts + ] + events = list(request["events"]) + payload: dict[str, dict[str, list[dict[str, Any]]]] = {event["id"]: {time: [] for time in times} for event in events} + kp_by_event: dict[str, dict[str, list[float]]] = {event["id"]: {time: [] for time in times} for event in events} + domains = [str(event["domain"]) for event in events] + for event in events: + samples = sample_event_dates(event) + for sampled in samples: + rows = list(compute_event_candidate_rows( + _legacy_request(request, event, sampled), + static_contexts=static_contexts, + )) + by_time = {str(row["time"])[:5]: row for row in rows} + event_dt = event_at(sampled) + for context in static_contexts: + time = str(context["feature"]["time"])[:5] + row = by_time.get(time) + if row is None or not row.get("evidence"): + continue + adjusted = _kind_adjusted_evidence(event, row["evidence"][0]) + payload[event["id"]][time].append({ + "points": float(adjusted["points"]), + "rule_ids": list(adjusted["rule_ids"]), + }) + moon = context["planet_longitudes"]["Moon"] + try: + vim = _active_vimshottari(request["birth_date"], float(moon), event_dt) + except (KeyError, TypeError, ValueError): + vim = ("", "", "") + kp_by_event[event["id"]][time].append( + kp_event_points(context, event["domain"], vim, 1.0), + ) + return { + "times": times, + "events": events, + "domains": domains, + "samples": payload, + "kp_samples": kp_by_event, + "static_contexts": list(static_contexts), + } + + +def apply_variant(bundle: dict[str, Any], variant: Variant) -> dict[str, dict[str, dict[str, Any]]]: + matrix: dict[str, dict[str, dict[str, Any]]] = {} + for event in bundle["events"]: + event_id = event["id"] + domain = event["domain"] + kind = event["event_kind"] + precision = event["precision"] + by_time: dict[str, float] = {} + rules_by_time: dict[str, list[str]] = {} + for time, samples in bundle["samples"][event_id].items(): + if not samples: + continue + scaled = [ + rescale_varga_points(item["points"], item["rule_ids"], domain, kind, precision, variant.r1) + for item in samples + ] + kp_scaled = [ + round(value * float(variant.r3), 4) + for value in bundle["kp_samples"][event_id].get(time, []) + ] if variant.r3 is not None else [0.0] * len(scaled) + combined = [left + right for left, right in zip(scaled, kp_scaled)] or scaled + by_time[time] = aggregate_samples(combined, variant.r4) + rules_by_time[time] = sorted({rule for item in samples for rule in item["rule_ids"]}) + if variant.r2: + by_time = subtract_event_floor(by_time) + matrix[event_id] = { + time: {"points": score, "rule_ids": rules_by_time.get(time, [])} + for time, score in by_time.items() + } + return matrix + + +def built_payload(bundle: dict[str, Any], matrix: dict[str, dict[str, dict[str, Any]]]) -> dict[str, Any]: + return { + "candidate_times": list(bundle["times"]), + "matrix": matrix, + "date_sensitivity": [], + "missing_layers": [], + "static_contexts": bundle["static_contexts"], + } + + +def entropy_curve( + *, + request: dict[str, Any], + built: dict[str, Any], + prior: dict[str, float], + true_time: str, + clusters: Sequence[dict[str, Any]], +) -> dict[str, Any]: + times = list(prior) + initial = discriminating_event_probes( + {**request, "refresh_probes": False}, + built, + scan=window_scan(built), + candidate_times=times, + representative_time=true_time, + today=TODAY, + ) + asked = initial[:ASK] + scores = dict(prior) + conflicts = {time: 0 for time in times} + eliminated: set[str] = set() + curve = [shannon_entropy(max(scores[time], 0.0) for time in times if time not in eliminated)] + coverage_curve = [] + width_curve = [] + for probe in asked: + answer = optimal_answer(probe, true_time) + if answer is None: + curve.append(curve[-1] if curve else 0.0) + continue + scores, conflicts, eliminated = apply_answer( + scores, conflicts, eliminated, probe, answer, times, + ) + remaining, _mode, true_alive = remaining_after_six( + all_times=times, + scores=scores, + eliminated=eliminated, + clusters=clusters, + true_time=true_time, + ) + active_scores = [max(scores.get(time, 0.0), 0.0) for time in remaining] + curve.append(shannon_entropy(active_scores)) + coverage_curve.append(true_alive) + width_curve.append( + None if not remaining else (max(len(remaining), 0)), + ) + remaining, remaining_mode, true_alive = remaining_after_six( + all_times=times, + scores=scores, + eliminated=eliminated, + clusters=clusters, + true_time=true_time, + ) + return { + "entropy": curve, + "asked": len(asked), + "probes": len(initial), + "remaining_count": len(remaining), + "remaining_mode": remaining_mode, + "true_alive": true_alive, + "replay_top1": top1_hit(scores, remaining, true_time, clusters), + "coverage_after_answers": coverage_curve, + } + + +def score_variant( + *, + request: dict[str, Any], + bundle: dict[str, Any], + variant: Variant, + true_time: str, +) -> dict[str, Any]: + matrix = apply_variant(bundle, variant) + built = built_payload(bundle, matrix) + rows = score_from_matrix(request, built) + layers = dynamic_signature_layers(bundle["domains"]) if variant.r5 else SIGNATURE_LAYERS + clusters = cluster_contexts(bundle["static_contexts"], layers) + public = public_rows(rows, bundle["static_contexts"], layers) + prior = {str(row["time"])[:5]: float(row["score"]) for row in rows} + engine = metrics_from_public(public, true_time, bundle["times"]) + replay = entropy_curve( + request=request, + built=built, + prior=prior, + true_time=true_time, + clusters=clusters, + ) + true_cluster = cluster_of(true_time, clusters) + return { + "engine": engine, + "replay": replay, + "true_cluster_key": None if true_cluster is None else true_cluster.get("signature_key"), + "true_cluster_size": 0 if true_cluster is None else len(true_cluster.get("times") or []), + "score_range": round( + max(prior.values()) - min(prior.values()), + 4, + ) if prior else 0.0, + } + + +def kp_window_changes(bundle: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, int]: + changes = {} + for domain in sorted(set(bundle["domains"])): + changes[domain] = kp_changes_in_window(bundle["static_contexts"], domain) + changes["any"] = max(changes.values()) if changes else 0 + return changes + + +def summarize(rows: Sequence[dict[str, Any]], *, r3_only: bool = False) -> dict[str, Any]: + usable = [row for row in rows if (not r3_only or row.get("kp_eligible"))] + if not usable: + return { + "n": 0, + "top1": None, + "coverage": None, + "width_median": None, + "tie": None, + "entropy0": None, + "entropy6": None, + "squeezed": None, + "too_narrow": None, + "replay_top1": None, + } + widths = [row["engine"]["width"] for row in usable if row["engine"]["width"] is not None] + entropy0 = [row["engine"]["entropy"] for row in usable] + entropy6 = [ + (row["replay"]["entropy"][-1] if row["replay"]["entropy"] else None) + for row in usable + ] + entropy6 = [item for item in entropy6 if item is not None] + return { + "n": len(usable), + "top1": round(sum(1 for row in usable if row["engine"]["top1_hit"]) / len(usable), 4), + "coverage": round(sum(1 for row in usable if row["engine"]["coverage"]) / len(usable), 4), + "width_median": statistics.median(widths) if widths else None, + "tie": round(sum(1 for row in usable if row["engine"]["tie"]) / len(usable), 4), + "entropy0": round(sum(entropy0) / len(entropy0), 4) if entropy0 else None, + "entropy6": round(sum(entropy6) / len(entropy6), 4) if entropy6 else None, + "squeezed": sum(1 for row in usable if row["engine"]["truth_squeezed"]), + "too_narrow": sum(1 for row in usable if row["engine"]["too_narrow"]), + "replay_top1": round(sum(1 for row in usable if row["replay"]["replay_top1"]) / len(usable), 4), + } + + +def verdict(baseline: dict[str, Any], candidate: dict[str, Any]) -> str: + if baseline["n"] == 0 or candidate["n"] == 0: + return "uncertain" + if any(candidate[key] is None or baseline[key] is None for key in ("top1", "coverage", "tie", "width_median")): + return "uncertain" + hit_ok = candidate["top1"] + 1e-9 >= baseline["top1"] + cover_ok = candidate["coverage"] + 1e-9 >= baseline["coverage"] + tie_down = candidate["tie"] <= baseline["tie"] + 1e-9 + width_down = candidate["width_median"] <= baseline["width_median"] + 1e-9 + squeezed_ok = candidate["squeezed"] <= baseline["squeezed"] + if hit_ok and cover_ok and tie_down and width_down and squeezed_ok: + if ( + candidate["top1"] > baseline["top1"] + 1e-9 + or candidate["tie"] < baseline["tie"] - 1e-9 + or candidate["width_median"] < baseline["width_median"] - 1e-9 + ): + return "benefit" + return "no_benefit" + if not hit_ok or not cover_ok or candidate["squeezed"] > baseline["squeezed"]: + return "no_benefit" + return "uncertain" + + +def md_table(headers: Sequence[str], rows: Sequence[Sequence[Any]]) -> str: + def cell(value: Any) -> str: + if value is None: + return "—" + if isinstance(value, float): + return f"{value:.3f}".rstrip("0").rstrip(".") + return str(value) + + line = "| " + " | ".join(headers) + " |" + sep = "| " + " | ".join("---" if index == 0 else "---:" for index in range(len(headers))) + " |" + body = ["| " + " | ".join(cell(item) for item in row) + " |" for row in rows] + return "\n".join([line, sep, *body]) + + +def write_report(payload: dict[str, Any]) -> None: + lines = [ + "# 分钟分辨率打分尺度测量（2026-09-14）", + "", + f"- 口径：ayanamsa `{payload['ayanamsa']}`，node mode `{payload['node_mode']}`。不得与上游 true-node 数字直接对比。", + f"- 数据：`{payload['holdout']}`，{payload['case_count']} 例公开 Rodden-AA，每例 ≥7 件事、≥4 个领域。", + f"- 半径：{', '.join(f'±{item}' for item in payload['radii'])}，步长 {MINUTE_STEP} 分钟。", + "- 性质：离线测量。生产 `active_rectification_event_engine.py` / `scoring_service.py` / `candidate_contrast.py` 默认值未改。", + "- D1：KP 宫头子主计分方向已拍板；本文件只报告权重收益，不改线上默认。", + "", + "## 结论", + "", + ] + overall = payload["verdicts"] + lines.append("| 改法 | 判定 | 说明 |") + lines.append("| --- | --- | --- |") + for name, row in overall.items(): + lines.append(f"| {name} | **{row['verdict']}** | {row['note']} |") + lines.extend(["", "## 基线成绩单", ""]) + base_rows = [] + for radius, summary in payload["baseline"].items(): + base_rows.append([ + f"±{radius}", + summary["n"], + summary["top1"], + summary["coverage"], + summary["width_median"], + summary["tie"], + summary["entropy0"], + summary["squeezed"], + ]) + lines.append(md_table( + ["半径", "N", "真分钟在头名簇", "真分钟在交付区间", "区间宽度中位", "并列率", "引擎熵", "真值被挤出"], + base_rows, + )) + lines.extend(["", "## 分半径指标", ""]) + for radius, variants in payload["by_radius"].items(): + lines.append(f"### ±{radius} 分钟") + lines.append("") + table = [] + for name, summary in variants.items(): + table.append([ + name, + summary["top1"], + summary["coverage"], + summary["width_median"], + summary["tie"], + summary["entropy0"], + summary["entropy6"], + summary["squeezed"], + summary["too_narrow"], + ]) + lines.append(md_table( + ["方案", "头名簇命中", "区间覆盖", "宽度中位", "并列率", "熵0", "熵6", "挤出", "过窄"], + table, + )) + lines.append("") + lines.extend([ + "## R3 KP 窗内变化", + "", + "只统计 ±10 窗内目标宫宫头子主至少变化一次的例子。", + "", + ]) + kp = payload["kp"] + lines.append(md_table( + ["例子", "窗内变化次数", "计入 R3"], + [[row["case_id"], row["changes"], "yes" if row["eligible"] else "no"] for row in kp], + )) + lines.extend([ + "", + "## 方法", + "", + "1. 每个例子先算生产静态盘（含 KP 观察），再按事件抽样日打生产分。", + "2. R1 按 `*_domain_varga` 规则把 `2*len` 换成 `len` / `sqrt(len)` / 固定 2。", + "3. R2 在事件级减去当前窗口最小值。", + "4. R3 把目标宫 KP 子主/次子主与当时 Vim MD/AD/PD 比对，权重 0.5 / 1.0 / 2.0。", + "5. R4 对年精度 12 个月样本取 max 或 log-sum-exp（T=1）。", + "6. R5 按本例有证据的领域动态取签名层，去掉同日恒定的 `md`。", + "7. 交付区间 = 公开簇成员分钟的并集。并列 = 头名簇分数并列。", + "8. 熵曲线用生产探针 + 真值方向最优答，最多 6 题。", + "", + "配对组合用 R1=`len`、R3=1.0、R4=`lse`。", + "", + ]) + REPORT_MD.write_text("\n".join(lines) + "\n", encoding="utf-8") + REPORT_JSON.write_text(json.dumps(payload, ensure_ascii=True, indent=2) + "\n", encoding="utf-8") + + +def run(args: argparse.Namespace) -> dict[str, Any]: + holdout = json.loads(HOLDOUT.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) + cases = list(holdout["cases"]) + if args.limit: + cases = cases[: args.limit] + radii = tuple(int(item) for item in args.radii) + variants = all_variants() + if args.quick: + variants = [item for item in variants if item.name in {"baseline", "R1@len", "R2", "R3@1.0", "R4@lse", "R5"}] + results: dict[str, dict[str, list[dict[str, Any]]]] = { + str(radius): {variant.name: [] for variant in variants} for radius in radii + } + kp_rows = [] + errors = [] + for case in cases: + case_id = case["case_id"] + true_time = str(case["birth"]["time"])[:5] + print(f"case {case_id}", flush=True) + try: + for radius in radii: + request = scoring_request_for(case, radius) + contexts = compute_candidate_static_contexts(request) + bundle = collect_samples(request, contexts) + changes = kp_window_changes(bundle) + eligible = changes["any"] > 0 + if radius == 10: + kp_rows.append({ + "case_id": case_id, + "changes": changes["any"], + "by_domain": changes, + "eligible": eligible, + }) + print(f" radius ±{radius} candidates={len(bundle['times'])}", flush=True) + for variant in variants: + scored = score_variant( + request=request, + bundle=bundle, + variant=variant, + true_time=true_time, + ) + scored["case_id"] = case_id + scored["kp_eligible"] = eligible + results[str(radius)][variant.name].append(scored) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 + errors.append({"case_id": case_id, "error": f"{type(exc).__name__}: {exc}", "trace": traceback.format_exc()}) + print(f" FAIL {case_id}: {exc}", flush=True) + by_radius = {} + baseline = {} + verdicts: dict[str, dict[str, str]] = {} + for radius in radii: + variant_summaries = {} + for variant in variants: + rows = results[str(radius)][variant.name] + variant_summaries[variant.name] = summarize(rows, r3_only=variant.uses_r3) + by_radius[str(radius)] = variant_summaries + baseline[str(radius)] = variant_summaries["baseline"] + names = [variant.name for variant in variants if variant.name != "baseline"] + for name in names: + notes = [] + labels = [] + for radius in radii: + base = by_radius[str(radius)]["baseline"] + cand = by_radius[str(radius)][name] + label = verdict(base, cand) + labels.append(label) + notes.append(f"±{radius}:{label}") + if all(item == "benefit" for item in labels): + final = "benefit" + elif all(item == "no_benefit" for item in labels): + final = "no_benefit" + else: + final = "uncertain" + verdicts[name] = {"verdict": final, "note": "；".join(notes)} + payload = { + "generated_at": TODAY.isoformat(), + "ayanamsa": AYANAMSA, + "node_mode": NODE_MODE, + "holdout": str(HOLDOUT.relative_to(ROOT)).replace("\\", "/"), + "case_count": len(cases), + "radii": list(radii), + "minute_step": MINUTE_STEP, + "baseline": baseline, + "by_radius": by_radius, + "verdicts": verdicts, + "kp": kp_rows, + "errors": errors, + "results": results, + } + write_report(payload) + return payload + + +def main() -> int: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--limit", type=int, default=0) + parser.add_argument("--radii", nargs="+", default=[str(item) for item in RADII]) + parser.add_argument("--quick", action="store_true") + args = parser.parse_args() + payload = run(args) + print(f"wrote {REPORT_MD} cases={payload['case_count']} errors={len(payload['errors'])}") + return 0 if not payload["errors"] else 1 + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + sys.exit(main()) diff --git a/tests/test_minute_resolution_research.py b/tests/test_minute_resolution_research.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..12eb597f --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_minute_resolution_research.py @@ -0,0 +1,97 @@ +from __future__ import annotations + +from scripts.research.holdout_v4_build import MIN_DOMAINS, MIN_EVENTS, build +from scripts.research.minute_resolution_lib import ( + aggregate_samples, + dynamic_signature_layers, + rescale_varga_points, + shannon_entropy, + subtract_event_floor, + varga_divisor, +) +from scripts.research.minute_resolution_sweep import all_variants, verdict + + +def test_v4_cases_meet_event_and_domain_floors() -> None: + payload = build() + assert payload["ayanamsa"] == "raman" + assert payload["node_mode"] == "mean" + assert len(payload["cases"]) >= 8 + for case in payload["cases"]: + domains = {item["domain"] for item in case["events"]} + assert len(case["events"]) >= MIN_EVENTS, case["case_id"] + assert len(domains) >= MIN_DOMAINS, case["case_id"] + assert case["birth"]["source"]["rodden_rating"] == "AA" + assert str(case["birth"]["time"])[:5] == case["true_minute"] + + +def test_varga_divisor_modes() -> None: + assert varga_divisor(1, "2len") == 2.0 + assert varga_divisor(3, "2len") == 6.0 + assert varga_divisor(3, "len") == 3.0 + assert abs(varga_divisor(4, "sqrt") - 2.0) < 1e-9 + assert varga_divisor(3, "fixed2") == 2.0 + + +def test_year_aggregation_keeps_peak() -> None: + samples = [1.0, 1.0, 12.0] + assert aggregate_samples(samples, "mean") == 4.6667 + assert aggregate_samples(samples, "max") == 12.0 + lse = aggregate_samples(samples, "lse", 1.0) + assert lse > aggregate_samples(samples, "mean") + assert lse < 12.0 + + +def test_subtract_event_floor_zeroes_the_min() -> None: + out = subtract_event_floor({"04:50": 11.0, "04:51": 13.5, "04:52": 11.0}) + assert out["04:50"] == 0.0 + assert out["04:51"] == 2.5 + + +def test_entropy_is_zero_for_a_spike() -> None: + assert shannon_entropy([0, 0, 5]) == 0.0 + assert shannon_entropy([1, 1]) > 0.9 + + +def test_varga_rescale_doubles_single_chart_hit() -> None: + points = rescale_varga_points( + 1.0, + ["vim_md_domain_varga", "event_kind:career_change"], + "career", + "career_change", + "day", + "len", + ) + assert points > 1.0 + + +def test_dynamic_layers_drop_md_and_follow_domains() -> None: + layers = dynamic_signature_layers(["career", "health_pressure"]) + assert layers[0] == "d1" + assert "d10" in layers + assert "d30" in layers + assert "md" not in layers + + +def test_variant_grid_covers_pairs() -> None: + names = {item.name for item in all_variants()} + assert "baseline" in names + assert "R1@len" in names + assert "R3@1.0" in names + assert "R1+R3" in names + pair = next(item for item in all_variants() if item.name == "R1+R3") + assert pair.r1 == "len" + assert pair.r3 == 1.0 + + +def test_verdict_requires_hit_and_coverage() -> None: + baseline = { + "n": 10, "top1": 0.2, "coverage": 0.9, "width_median": 21, "tie": 0.8, + "squeezed": 1, "entropy0": 3.0, "entropy6": 2.0, "too_narrow": 0, "replay_top1": 0.5, + } + better = { + **baseline, "top1": 0.4, "tie": 0.4, "width_median": 12, "squeezed": 0, + } + worse = {**baseline, "top1": 0.1, "coverage": 0.7, "squeezed": 3} + assert verdict(baseline, better) == "benefit" + assert verdict(baseline, worse) == "no_benefit"