From 313012ea1a85065bd3ab09b1f2827fd5fe3f4eb0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Jesse_Chen Date: Tue, 29 Sep 2026 19:10:08 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?research(rectification):=20holdout=20v5=20check?= =?UTF-8?q?point=203=20=E2=80=94=2057=20new=20cases,=2077=20total?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017eEAG8HD3mm8gsKXgk8uU8 --- .../holdout_v5_roster.json | 34 +++ .../minute_rectification_holdout_v5.json | 258 +++++++++++++++++- ...inute_rectification_holdout_v5_events.json | 174 ++++++++++++ 3 files changed, 453 insertions(+), 13 deletions(-) diff --git a/references/real_case_calibration/holdout_v5_roster.json b/references/real_case_calibration/holdout_v5_roster.json index dcdbfc51..13614f27 100644 --- a/references/real_case_calibration/holdout_v5_roster.json +++ b/references/real_case_calibration/holdout_v5_roster.json @@ -9,6 +9,40 @@ "privacy": "public figures only; no real users, collaborators or their relatives" }, "cases": [ + { + "case_id": "adriana_lima_1981_aa_v5_holdout", + "subject_label": "Adriana Lima", + "wikipedia_title": "Adriana Lima", + "birth": { + "date": "1981-06-12", + "time": "16:50", + "place": "Salvador, Brazil", + "latitude": -12.9667, + "longitude": -38.5, + "timezone_offset": -3.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Lima,_Adriana", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record", + "collector": "Astrodienst", + "verified_via": { + "publisher": "Astro-Seek famous-people mirror of Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://famouspeople.astro-seek.com/birth-chart/adriana-lima-horoscope", + "note": "astro.com blocked automated access on 2026-09-29; rating and birth data read from the mirror page" + } + } + }, + "checks": { + "timezone_zone": "America/Bahia", + "timezone_zoneinfo_offset": -3.0, + "timezone_mirror_offset": -3.0, + "timezone_rule": "zoneinfo_match", + "timezone_agrees": true, + "place_geocode": "Salvador, Bahia, Região Nordeste, Brasil", + "place_distance_km": 2.7 + } + }, { "case_id": "agatha_christie_1890_aa_v5_holdout", "subject_label": "Agatha Christie", diff --git a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v5.json b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v5.json index 104022a6..8c7e2979 100644 --- a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v5.json +++ b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v5.json @@ -29,21 +29,21 @@ "privacy": "public figures only; no real users, collaborators or their relatives" }, "summary": { - "cases": 76, + "cases": 77, "inherited_from_v4": 20, - "events_total": 953, + "events_total": 966, "events_by_precision": { - "day": 243, - "month": 139, - "year": 571 + "day": 244, + "month": 143, + "year": 579 }, "events_by_domain": { - "career": 317, + "career": 321, "education": 117, - "family": 128, - "finance": 33, + "family": 131, + "finance": 35, "health_pressure": 97, - "relationship": 189, + "relationship": 193, "relocation": 72 }, "decades": { @@ -59,15 +59,15 @@ "1950s": 4, "1960s": 10, "1970s": 8, - "1980s": 8, + "1980s": 9, "1990s": 1 }, "latitude_bands": { "25to45": 44, "gt45": 19, - "lt25": 13 + "lt25": 14 }, - "southern_hemisphere": 11, + "southern_hemisphere": 12, "night_birth_22_to_02": 9, "utc_plus_8": 5, "countries": { @@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ "Australia": 1, "Austrian Empire": 1, "Belgium": 1, - "Brazil": 6, + "Brazil": 7, "England": 2, "France": 7, "Germany": 2, @@ -2766,6 +2766,238 @@ "utc_plus_8": false } }, + { + "case_id": "adriana_lima_1981_aa_v5_holdout", + "subject_label": "Adriana Lima", + "holdout_partition": "open_scale_evaluation", + "excluded_from_tuning": true, + "inherited_from_v4": false, + "candidate_radius_minutes": 10, + "false_minute_offsets": [ + -10, + -5, + -2, + -1, + 1, + 2, + 5, + 10 + ], + "birth": { + "date": "1981-06-12", + "time": "16:50", + "place": "Salvador, Brazil", + "latitude": -12.9667, + "longitude": -38.5, + "timezone_offset": -3.0, + "source": { + "publisher": "Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Lima,_Adriana", + "rodden_rating": "AA", + "record_type": "birth_record", + "collector": "Astrodienst", + "verified_via": { + "publisher": "Astro-Seek famous-people mirror of Astro-Databank", + "url": "https://famouspeople.astro-seek.com/birth-chart/adriana-lima-horoscope", + "note": "astro.com blocked automated access on 2026-09-29; rating and birth data read from the mirror page" + } + } + }, + "checks": { + "timezone_zone": "America/Bahia", + "timezone_zoneinfo_offset": -3.0, + "timezone_mirror_offset": -3.0, + "timezone_rule": "zoneinfo_match", + "timezone_agrees": true, + "place_geocode": "Salvador, Bahia, Região Nordeste, Brasil", + "place_distance_km": 2.7 + }, + "strata": { + "decade": "1980s", + "latitude_band": "lt25", + "hemisphere": "south", + "night_birth_22_to_02": false, + "utc_plus_8": false + }, + "events": [ + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_career_1997_09", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1997-09", + "precision": "month", + "description": "Runway debut at Anna Sui's New York Fashion Week show.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "Lima made her runway debut at Anna Sui's New York Fashion Week show in September 1997.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_career_1999", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1999", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Victoria's Secret Fashion Show debut.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "She was a Victoria's Secret Angel from 2000 to 2018, having made her Victoria's Secret Fashion Show debut in 1999, making her the longest-running Victoria's Secret Angel and model.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_career_2008_02", + "domain": "career", + "date": "2008-02", + "precision": "month", + "description": "Chosen as the face of Liverpool department stores.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "In February 2008, she was chosen to be the face of Mexico's Liverpool department store chain and launched the partnership with a press conference, runway show, and a summer campaign.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_career_2009", + "domain": "career", + "date": "2009", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Returned to the high fashion runway for Givenchy.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "Lima returned to the high fashion runway in 2009, walking for Givenchy.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_relationship_2009", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2009", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Married Marko Jarić on Valentine's Day.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "On Valentine's Day 2009, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Lima married Serbian NBA player Marko Jarić.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_family_2012", + "domain": "family", + "date": "2012", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Gave birth to her second child.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "In 2012, she opened the show for the 5th time less than two months after giving birth to her second child.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_finance_2012", + "domain": "finance", + "date": "2012", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Ranked 4th on the Forbes top-earning models list.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "Lima is currently ranked by models.com as one of the \"Legends.\" In 2012, she came in 4th place on the Forbes top-earning models list, estimated to have earned $7.3 million in one year.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_family_2015", + "domain": "family", + "date": "2015", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Father died.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "Despite this, Lima has expressed appreciation for her time spent with her father before his death in 2015.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_finance_2015", + "domain": "finance", + "date": "2015", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Ranked 2nd on the Forbes list with earnings of $9 million.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "In 2015, she came in 2nd place with earnings of $9 million.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_relationship_2016_03", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2016-03", + "precision": "month", + "description": "Divorced Marko Jarić.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "They were divorced in March 2016.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_relationship_2019", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2019", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Relationship with Emir Uyar.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "In 2019 Lima was in relationship with Emir Uyar, a Turkish businessman.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_family_2022_08", + "domain": "family", + "date": "2022-08", + "precision": "month", + "description": "Gave birth to a son.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "In August 2022, Lima gave birth to their son.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_relationship_2024_12_17", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2024-12-17", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Announced marriage to Lemmers.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "On 17 December 2024, Lima announced on Instagram that she married Lemmers, writing: \"oficcially [sic] Mrs Lima Lemmers.\" As of 2025, Lima resides in Los Angeles.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ], + "candidate_radii_minutes": [ + 10, + 30, + 60 + ], + "true_minute": "16:50", + "true_cluster_note": "Cluster membership depends on the scoring variant and radius; recorded in the sweep results." + }, { "case_id": "agatha_christie_1890_aa_v5_holdout", "subject_label": "Agatha Christie", diff --git a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v5_events.json b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v5_events.json index 7ea43639..a3d8ab37 100644 --- a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v5_events.json +++ b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v5_events.json @@ -1,4 +1,178 @@ { + "adriana_lima_1981_aa_v5_holdout": { + "wikipedia_title": "Adriana Lima", + "events": [ + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_career_1997_09", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1997-09", + "precision": "month", + "description": "Runway debut at Anna Sui's New York Fashion Week show.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "Lima made her runway debut at Anna Sui's New York Fashion Week show in September 1997.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_career_1999", + "domain": "career", + "date": "1999", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Victoria's Secret Fashion Show debut.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "She was a Victoria's Secret Angel from 2000 to 2018, having made her Victoria's Secret Fashion Show debut in 1999, making her the longest-running Victoria's Secret Angel and model.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_career_2008_02", + "domain": "career", + "date": "2008-02", + "precision": "month", + "description": "Chosen as the face of Liverpool department stores.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "In February 2008, she was chosen to be the face of Mexico's Liverpool department store chain and launched the partnership with a press conference, runway show, and a summer campaign.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_relationship_2009", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2009", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Married Marko Jarić on Valentine's Day.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "On Valentine's Day 2009, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Lima married Serbian NBA player Marko Jarić.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_career_2009", + "domain": "career", + "date": "2009", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Returned to the high fashion runway for Givenchy.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "Lima returned to the high fashion runway in 2009, walking for Givenchy.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_family_2012", + "domain": "family", + "date": "2012", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Gave birth to her second child.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "In 2012, she opened the show for the 5th time less than two months after giving birth to her second child.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_family_2015", + "domain": "family", + "date": "2015", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Father died.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "Despite this, Lima has expressed appreciation for her time spent with her father before his death in 2015.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_relationship_2016_03", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2016-03", + "precision": "month", + "description": "Divorced Marko Jarić.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "They were divorced in March 2016.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_relationship_2019", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2019", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Relationship with Emir Uyar.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "In 2019 Lima was in relationship with Emir Uyar, a Turkish businessman.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_family_2022_08", + "domain": "family", + "date": "2022-08", + "precision": "month", + "description": "Gave birth to a son.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "In August 2022, Lima gave birth to their son.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_relationship_2024_12_17", + "domain": "relationship", + "date": "2024-12-17", + "precision": "day", + "description": "Announced marriage to Lemmers.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "On 17 December 2024, Lima announced on Instagram that she married Lemmers, writing: \"oficcially [sic] Mrs Lima Lemmers.\" As of 2025, Lima resides in Los Angeles.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_finance_2012", + "domain": "finance", + "date": "2012", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Ranked 4th on the Forbes top-earning models list.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "Lima is currently ranked by models.com as one of the \"Legends.\" In 2012, she came in 4th place on the Forbes top-earning models list, estimated to have earned $7.3 million in one year.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + }, + { + "id": "adriana_lima_1981_finance_2015", + "domain": "finance", + "date": "2015", + "precision": "year", + "description": "Ranked 2nd on the Forbes list with earnings of $9 million.", + "source": { + "publisher": "Wikipedia", + "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adriana_Lima", + "quote": "In 2015, she came in 2nd place with earnings of $9 million.", + "independent_of_birth_source": true + } + } + ] + }, "agatha_christie_1890_aa_v5_holdout": { "wikipedia_title": "Agatha Christie", "events": [