diff --git a/progress.md b/progress.md
index 86df79ff..270529d6 100644
--- a/progress.md
+++ b/progress.md
@@ -1030,3 +1030,11 @@
 - 真实状态来自 `minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json` 与 `minute_rectification_holdout_v3_report.json`（evaluated_on 2026-07-21）：20 个公开 AA 案例已存在；source audit 失败（`invalidated_after_replay`）；`top_1_rate=0.15`、`top_3_rate=0.25`、`mean_absolute_minute_error=6.95` 均未过门；`confirmation_coverage_rate=0.0`。
 - 合同六键已改为 v3 数字，`status` 仍为 `not_ready`。确认门保持关闭：案例数已满，但 status 非 ready 且 confirmation_coverage_rate 为 0。
 - 防复发：holdout 集一旦回放，必须把真实 status / 案例数 / 指标写回 `rectification_sealed_holdout.v1.json`；不得把合同留在上一版的计数上。
+
+## 2026-08-29 - C2: 两例日期审计 + v4 intake + 诊断回放（非盲测）
+
+- `robbins_marriage_1968`：submitted `1968`（year）；verified `1967-03-10`（day）。原 URL `https://www.johnrobbins.info/about/` 无结婚日期，已替换为 `https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)`。v3 盲测 working `date` 仍保留 submitted `1968`。
+- `takamoto_joined_disney_1947`：submitted `1947`（year）；verified `1945`（year）。原 URL `https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto` 已写明 1945 入职 Disney，URL 保留。v3 盲测 working `date` 仍保留 submitted `1947`。未把 year-precision 编造成 day。
+- v3 `source_audit_status` 仍为 `invalidated_after_replay`。未改已发布的 `minute_rectification_holdout_v3_report.json` 数字。
+- v4 intake `day_precision_events_per_case=3` 未放宽：20 例中仅 4 例入列（`barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout`、`paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout`、`sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout`、`kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout`）。其余 16 例在补齐 review safeguards 后仍为 `insufficient_day_precision_events`；Robbins/Takamoto 校正后仍不够 3 个 day 事件。intake 保持 `production_tuning_allowed=false`、`verified_minute_claim_allowed=false`。
+- 诊断回放文件：`minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic.json` / `_report.json`。这是 post-audit diagnostic rerun，不是盲测，不可声称 release gate 通过，不可用于调参。官方 eval runner 因当前树 scoring 文件哈希已偏离 2026-07-21 v3 freeze 而 `implementation_hash_matches=false`、trial_count=0；本任务未改 `frozen_scoring.files`。确认门仍关闭。
diff --git a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json
index 5d4088a0..1805443c 100644
--- a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json
+++ b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json
@@ -8,13 +8,27 @@
   "source_audit_issues": [
     {
       "event_id": "robbins_marriage_1968",
-      "issue": "The cited public biography gives 1967-03-10, not 1968."
+      "issue": "The cited public biography gives 1967-03-10, not 1968.",
+      "submitted_date": "1968",
+      "verified_date": "1967-03-10",
+      "cited_url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/about/",
+      "cited_url_outcome": "replaced",
+      "cited_url_note": "The original about page has no marriage date.",
+      "replacement_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)"
     },
     {
       "event_id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947",
-      "issue": "Multiple public biographies give 1945, not 1947."
+      "issue": "Multiple public biographies give 1945, not 1947.",
+      "submitted_date": "1947",
+      "verified_date": "1945",
+      "cited_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto",
+      "cited_url_outcome": "kept",
+      "cited_url_note": "The cited Wikipedia page states hired by Walt Disney Productions in 1945, not 1947."
     }
   ],
+  "post_audit_diagnostic_dataset": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic.json",
+  "post_audit_diagnostic_report": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic_report.json",
+  "post_audit_diagnostic_note": "The historical blind working date fields below remain the submitted values. Verified dates live on the events as verified_date and in the diagnostic dataset. Do not treat a re-run of this file as a new blind holdout.",
   "minimum_gate": {
     "public_aa_cases": 20,
     "events_per_case": 3,
@@ -303,7 +317,7 @@
         "source": {"publisher": "Astro-Databank", "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Robbins%2C_John", "rodden_rating": "AA", "record_type": "birth_record"}
       },
       "events": [
-        {"id": "robbins_marriage_1968", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1968", "precision": "year", "description": "Married Deo Robbins.", "source": {"publisher": "John Robbins", "url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/about/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
+        {"id": "robbins_marriage_1968", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1968", "precision": "year", "submitted_date": "1968", "verified_date": "1967-03-10", "source_audit_note": "Blind working date remains submitted 1968. Verified 1967-03-10 from Wikipedia; original johnrobbins.info/about/ has no marriage date.", "description": "Married Deo Robbins.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
         {"id": "robbins_diet_book_1987", "domain": "career", "date": "1987", "precision": "year", "description": "Published Diet for a New America.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
         {"id": "robbins_health_book_1996", "domain": "career", "date": "1996", "precision": "year", "description": "Published Reclaiming Our Health.", "source": {"publisher": "John Robbins", "url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/books/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
       ]
@@ -348,7 +362,7 @@
         "source": {"publisher": "Astro-Databank", "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Takamoto%2C_Iwao", "rodden_rating": "AA", "record_type": "birth_record"}
       },
       "events": [
-        {"id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947", "domain": "career", "date": "1947", "precision": "year", "description": "Joined Walt Disney Animation Studios.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
+        {"id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947", "domain": "career", "date": "1947", "precision": "year", "submitted_date": "1947", "verified_date": "1945", "source_audit_note": "Blind working date remains submitted 1947. Cited Wikipedia states hired by Walt Disney Productions in 1945; URL kept.", "description": "Joined Walt Disney Animation Studios.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
         {"id": "takamoto_hanna_barbera_1961", "domain": "career", "date": "1961", "precision": "year", "description": "Moved to Hanna-Barbera and began designing its characters.", "source": {"publisher": "Animation Magazine", "url": "https://www.animationmagazine.net/2007/01/animation-legend-iwao-takamoto-dies/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
         {"id": "takamoto_heart_attack_2007", "domain": "health_pressure", "date": "2007-01-08", "precision": "day", "description": "Died following a heart attack.", "source": {"publisher": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/10/arts/10takamoto.html", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
       ]
diff --git a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic.json b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic.json
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..d1a5ddb7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic.json
@@ -0,0 +1,1462 @@
+{
+  "schema_version": "minute-rectification-holdout-v3",
+  "benchmark_id": "minute_rectification_fact_ranker_v4_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic",
+  "description": "Post-audit diagnostic copy of the v3 public AA set. Verified event dates are the working dates. This is not a new sealed blind holdout.",
+  "truth_hidden_from_ranker": true,
+  "frozen_before_replay": true,
+  "source_audit_status": "invalidated_after_replay",
+  "source_audit_issues": [
+    {
+      "event_id": "robbins_marriage_1968",
+      "issue": "The cited public biography gives 1967-03-10, not 1968.",
+      "submitted_date": "1968",
+      "verified_date": "1967-03-10",
+      "cited_url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/about/",
+      "cited_url_outcome": "replaced",
+      "cited_url_note": "The original about page has no marriage date.",
+      "replacement_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)"
+    },
+    {
+      "event_id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947",
+      "issue": "Multiple public biographies give 1945, not 1947.",
+      "submitted_date": "1947",
+      "verified_date": "1945",
+      "cited_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto",
+      "cited_url_outcome": "kept",
+      "cited_url_note": "The cited Wikipedia page states hired by Walt Disney Productions in 1945, not 1947."
+    }
+  ],
+  "post_audit_diagnostic_dataset": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic.json",
+  "post_audit_diagnostic_report": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic_report.json",
+  "post_audit_diagnostic_note": "Working dates on the two audited events are the verified values (Robbins 1967-03-10 day; Takamoto 1945 year). This file is a post-audit diagnostic rerun, not a blind evaluation, and must not be used to claim the release gate passed or to tune scoring.",
+  "minimum_gate": {
+    "public_aa_cases": 20,
+    "events_per_case": 3,
+    "domains_per_case": 2,
+    "independent_event_sources_per_case": 2,
+    "negative_minutes_per_case": 4
+  },
+  "release_metrics": {
+    "top_1_rate_minimum": 0.6,
+    "top_3_rate_minimum": 0.85,
+    "mean_absolute_minute_error_maximum": 2.0,
+    "false_confirmation_rate_maximum": 0.05,
+    "correct_insufficient_evidence_rejection_rate_minimum": 0.9
+  },
+  "frozen_scoring": {
+    "algorithm_version": "birth-time-event-fact-ranker-v4-shadow",
+    "implementation_sha256": "f41c298dd6cdcebe7a93e632f7191954be7987f6012ca2a34cecb6e447fbf196",
+    "files": [
+      "scripts/active_rectification_event_engine.py",
+      "scripts/active_rectification_events.py",
+      "scripts/ashtakavarga.py",
+      "scripts/dasha_analyzer.py",
+      "scripts/divisional_charts_extended.py",
+      "scripts/domain_calculation_service.py",
+      "scripts/jaimini.py",
+      "scripts/minute_rectification_fact_ranker_v4.py",
+      "scripts/minute_rectification_feature_facts_v4.py",
+      "scripts/narayana_dasha.py",
+      "scripts/shadbala.py",
+      "scripts/varga.py"
+    ],
+    "tie_breaker": "sha256(benchmark_id:case_id:candidate_time); published minute is never passed to the ranker"
+  },
+  "cases": [
+    {
+      "case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "subject_label": "Barack Obama",
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1961-08-04",
+        "time": "19:24",
+        "place": "Honolulu, Hawaii, United States",
+        "latitude": 21.3069,
+        "longitude": -157.8583,
+        "timezone_offset": -10.0,
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/adbvip/adbvip_08_04.htm?lang=r&nho2=161&nhor=1",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "record_type": "birth_record"
+        }
+      },
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "id": "obama_wedding_1992_v4",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "date": "1992-10-03",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Married Michelle Robinson.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Obama Foundation",
+            "url": "https://obama.org/about/administration/chicago-where-it-began/",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "obama_illinois_senate_1996_v4",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "1996-11-05",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Elected to the Illinois State Senate.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_Senate_career_of_Barack_Obama",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "obama_presidential_election_2008_v4",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "2008-11-04",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Elected President of the United States.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "White House Archives",
+            "url": "https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/1600/presidents/barackobama/",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "subject_label": "Angelina Jolie",
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1975-06-04",
+        "time": "09:09",
+        "place": "Los Angeles, California, United States",
+        "latitude": 34.0961,
+        "longitude": -118.2944,
+        "timezone_offset": -7.0,
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Jolie%2C_Angelina",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "record_type": "birth_record"
+        }
+      },
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "id": "jolie_oscar_2000",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "2000",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Won the Academy Award for supporting actress.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences",
+            "url": "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2000",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "jolie_mastectomy_2013",
+          "domain": "health_pressure",
+          "date": "2013",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Underwent preventive double mastectomy treatment.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "The New York Times",
+            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/14/opinion/my-medical-choice.html",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "jolie_marriage_2014",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "date": "2014-08-23",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Married Brad Pitt.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica",
+            "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Angelina-Jolie",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "case_id": "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "subject_label": "Tiger Woods",
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1975-12-30",
+        "time": "22:50",
+        "place": "Long Beach, California, United States",
+        "latitude": 33.7667,
+        "longitude": -118.1833,
+        "timezone_offset": -8.0,
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Woods%2C_Tiger",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "record_type": "birth_record"
+        }
+      },
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "id": "woods_turned_professional_1996",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "1996",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Turned professional as a golfer.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "PGA Tour",
+            "url": "https://www.pgatour.com/player/08793/tiger-woods/bio",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "woods_marriage_2004",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "date": "2004-10-05",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Married Elin Nordegren.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica",
+            "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tiger-Woods",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "woods_car_crash_2021",
+          "domain": "health_pressure",
+          "date": "2021-02-23",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Sustained serious injuries in a motor-vehicle crash.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_Woods",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "case_id": "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "subject_label": "Elizabeth Taylor",
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1932-02-27",
+        "time": "02:30",
+        "place": "London, England",
+        "latitude": 51.5,
+        "longitude": -0.1667,
+        "timezone_offset": 0.0,
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Taylor%2C_Elizabeth",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "record_type": "birth_record"
+        }
+      },
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "id": "taylor_first_marriage_1950",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "date": "1950-05-06",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Married Conrad Hilton Jr.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica",
+            "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Elizabeth-Taylor-American-actress",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "taylor_oscar_1961",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "1961",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Won the Academy Award for Butterfield 8.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences",
+            "url": "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/1961",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "taylor_brain_surgery_1997",
+          "domain": "health_pressure",
+          "date": "1997",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Underwent surgery for a benign brain tumor.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica",
+            "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Elizabeth-Taylor-American-actress/Final-films-and-HIV-AIDS-activism",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "subject_label": "Elizabeth Montgomery",
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1933-04-15",
+        "time": "16:38",
+        "place": "Los Angeles, California, United States",
+        "latitude": 34.05,
+        "longitude": -118.25,
+        "timezone_offset": -8.0,
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Montgomery%2C_Elizabeth",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "record_type": "birth_record"
+        }
+      },
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "id": "montgomery_marriage_asher_1963",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "date": "1963",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Married producer William Asher.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Montgomery",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "montgomery_bewitched_1964",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "1964-09-17",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Bewitched premiered on television.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bewitched",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "montgomery_cancer_1995",
+          "domain": "health_pressure",
+          "date": "1995",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Was diagnosed with colorectal cancer and died later that year.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "The New York Times",
+            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/1995/05/19/obituaries/elizabeth-montgomery-62-star-of-the-tv-comedy-bewitched.html",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        }
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+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1967-02-20",
+        "time": "19:38",
+        "place": "Aberdeen, Washington, United States",
+        "latitude": 46.9833,
+        "longitude": -123.8167,
+        "timezone_offset": -8.0,
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Cobain%2C_Kurt",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "record_type": "birth_record"
+        }
+      },
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "id": "cobain_nevermind_1991",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "1991-09-24",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Nirvana released Nevermind.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Rock and Roll Hall of Fame",
+            "url": "https://www.rockhall.com/inductees/nirvana",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "cobain_marriage_1992",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "date": "1992-02-24",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Married Courtney Love.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica",
+            "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Kurt-Cobain",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "cobain_overdose_1994",
+          "domain": "health_pressure",
+          "date": "1994-03-04",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Was hospitalized after an overdose in Rome.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "The Seattle Times",
+            "url": "https://www.seattletimes.com/entertainment/music/kurt-cobain-a-timeline-of-his-life/",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "subject_label": "John Robbins",
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1947-10-26",
+        "time": "02:56",
+        "place": "Glendale, California, United States",
+        "latitude": 34.15,
+        "longitude": -118.25,
+        "timezone_offset": -8.0,
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Robbins%2C_John",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "record_type": "birth_record"
+        }
+      },
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "id": "robbins_marriage_1968",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "date": "1967-03-10",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "submitted_date": "1968",
+          "verified_date": "1967-03-10",
+          "source_audit_note": "Blind working date remains submitted 1968. Verified 1967-03-10 from Wikipedia; original johnrobbins.info/about/ has no marriage date.",
+          "description": "Married Deo Robbins.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "robbins_diet_book_1987",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "1987",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Published Diet for a New America.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "robbins_health_book_1996",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "1996",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Published Reclaiming Our Health.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "John Robbins",
+            "url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/books/",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "subject_label": "Chad Everett",
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1937-06-11",
+        "time": "22:20",
+        "place": "South Bend, Indiana, United States",
+        "latitude": 41.6833,
+        "longitude": -86.25,
+        "timezone_offset": -5.0,
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Everett%2C_Chad",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "record_type": "birth_record"
+        }
+      },
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "id": "everett_marriage_1966",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "date": "1966-05-22",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Married actress Shelby Grant.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Everett",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "everett_medical_center_1969",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "1969",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Began starring in Medical Center.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_Center_(TV_series)",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "everett_lung_cancer_2012",
+          "domain": "health_pressure",
+          "date": "2012",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Died after a battle with lung cancer.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "The New York Times",
+            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/arts/television/chad-everett-medical-center-star-dies-at-75.html",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "subject_label": "Bernd Eichinger",
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1949-04-11",
+        "time": "13:15",
+        "place": "Neuburg an der Donau, Germany",
+        "latitude": 48.7333,
+        "longitude": 11.1833,
+        "timezone_offset": 2.0,
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Eichinger%2C_Bernd",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "record_type": "birth_record"
+        }
+      },
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "id": "eichinger_constantin_1979",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "1979",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Bought a stake in Neue Constantin Film and became executive director.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constantin_Film",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "eichinger_summit_1991",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "1991",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Co-founded Summit Entertainment.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summit_Entertainment",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "eichinger_marriage_2006",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "date": "2006",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Married Katja Hofmann.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Reuters",
+            "url": "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-berndeichinger/film-producer-bernd-eichinger-dies-at-61-idUSTRE70O6BJ20110125",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "subject_label": "Iwao Takamoto",
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1925-04-29",
+        "time": "20:00",
+        "place": "Los Angeles, California, United States",
+        "latitude": 34.05,
+        "longitude": -118.25,
+        "timezone_offset": -8.0,
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Takamoto%2C_Iwao",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "record_type": "birth_record"
+        }
+      },
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "1945",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "submitted_date": "1947",
+          "verified_date": "1945",
+          "source_audit_note": "Blind working date remains submitted 1947. Cited Wikipedia states hired by Walt Disney Productions in 1945; URL kept.",
+          "description": "Joined Walt Disney Animation Studios.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "takamoto_hanna_barbera_1961",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "date": "1961",
+          "precision": "year",
+          "description": "Moved to Hanna-Barbera and began designing its characters.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "Animation Magazine",
+            "url": "https://www.animationmagazine.net/2007/01/animation-legend-iwao-takamoto-dies/",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "id": "takamoto_heart_attack_2007",
+          "domain": "health_pressure",
+          "date": "2007-01-08",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "description": "Died following a heart attack.",
+          "source": {
+            "publisher": "The New York Times",
+            "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/10/arts/10takamoto.html",
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true
+          }
+        }
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "boundary": "This sealed set was invalidated by post-replay source-content audit and may only be used as development evidence. A future release replay requires a new scorer version and a fresh source-audited sealed evaluation set.",
+  "evaluation_kind": "post_audit_diagnostic_rerun",
+  "is_blind_evaluation": false,
+  "must_not_claim_release_gate_passed": true,
+  "must_not_use_for_tuning": true,
+  "verified_minute_claim_allowed": false,
+  "implementation_hash_note": "Keeps the v3 frozen implementation_sha256. Official eval will report implementation_hash_matches=false because current staging scoring files drifted after the 2026-07-21 replay. This diagnostic does not retune or rewrite that freeze.",
+  "historical_blind_dataset": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json",
+  "historical_blind_report": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_report.json"
+}
diff --git a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic_report.json b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic_report.json
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..39046e97
--- /dev/null
+++ b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic_report.json
@@ -0,0 +1,1534 @@
+{
+  "scope": "minute_rectification_fact_ranker_v4_post_audit_diagnostic_rerun",
+  "benchmark_id": "minute_rectification_fact_ranker_v4_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic",
+  "status": "blocked",
+  "validation": {
+    "scope": "minute_rectification_holdout_validation",
+    "benchmark_id": "minute_rectification_fact_ranker_v4_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic",
+    "status": "blocked_awaiting_public_aa_cases",
+    "valid_public_aa_cases": 20,
+    "minimum_public_aa_cases": 20,
+    "manifest_errors": [
+      "source_content_audit_not_passed_before_freeze"
+    ],
+    "invalid_cases": [],
+    "invalid_case_details": [],
+    "verified_minute_claim_allowed": false,
+    "boundary": "This sealed set was invalidated by post-replay source-content audit and may only be used as development evidence. A future release replay requires a new scorer version and a fresh source-audited sealed evaluation set."
+  },
+  "frozen_scoring": {
+    "algorithm_matches": true,
+    "implementation_hash_matches": false,
+    "expected_sha256": "f41c298dd6cdcebe7a93e632f7191954be7987f6012ca2a34cecb6e447fbf196",
+    "actual_sha256": "99730c84c6434f52669a05e4d9a4a87df0a218e3237b5436b933252f2028384e"
+  },
+  "trial_count": 0,
+  "trials": [],
+  "metrics": {
+    "top_1_rate": null,
+    "top_3_rate": null,
+    "mean_absolute_minute_error": null,
+    "false_confirmation_rate": null,
+    "correct_insufficient_evidence_rejection_rate": null,
+    "confirmation_coverage_rate": null
+  },
+  "metric_gates_passed": false,
+  "verified_minute_claim_allowed": false,
+  "boundary": "This is a post-audit diagnostic rerun, not a blind evaluation. Results have been seen. Must not be used to claim the release gate passed. Must not be used for tuning.",
+  "evaluation_kind": "post_audit_diagnostic_rerun",
+  "is_blind_evaluation": false,
+  "must_not_claim_release_gate_passed": true,
+  "must_not_use_for_tuning": true,
+  "historical_blind_dataset": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json",
+  "historical_blind_report": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_report.json",
+  "trials_skipped_reason": "Official eval runner skipped trials because implementation_sha256 does not match the v3 freeze. This worktree did not modify frozen_scoring.files. Current staging scorer drifted after the 2026-07-21 v3 replay.",
+  "current_tree_unfrozen_diagnostic": {
+    "note": "Sidecar trials used the current worktree scorer. They are not the v3 frozen identity, not blind, not a release gate, and not for tuning.",
+    "implementation_hash_matches": false,
+    "expected_v3_sha256": "f41c298dd6cdcebe7a93e632f7191954be7987f6012ca2a34cecb6e447fbf196",
+    "actual_sha256": "99730c84c6434f52669a05e4d9a4a87df0a218e3237b5436b933252f2028384e",
+    "trial_count": 20,
+    "trials": [
+      {
+        "case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "19:14",
+        "true_rank": 5,
+        "minute_error": 10,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "19:14",
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 1,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 5,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 5,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "obama_wedding_1992_v4",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "19:17",
+                "end_time": "19:29",
+                "representative_time": "19:23",
+                "width_minutes": 13
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "obama_illinois_senate_1996_v4",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "19:17",
+                "end_time": "19:19",
+                "representative_time": "19:18",
+                "width_minutes": 3
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "obama_presidential_election_2008_v4",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "19:14",
+                "end_time": "19:14",
+                "representative_time": "19:14",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": true
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "09:12",
+        "true_rank": 2,
+        "minute_error": 3,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "09:12",
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "pass",
+              "lead_points": 17.5,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "unique_minute_leads_neighbor_candidates"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "pass",
+              "lead_points": 17.5,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 4,
+              "reason": "unique_minute_leads_neighbor_candidates"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 5,
+              "status": "pass",
+              "lead_points": 17.5,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 10,
+              "reason": "unique_minute_leads_neighbor_candidates"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": true,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "jolie_oscar_2000",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "09:12",
+                "end_time": "09:12",
+                "representative_time": "09:12",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": true
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "jolie_mastectomy_2013",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "09:06",
+                "end_time": "09:12",
+                "representative_time": "09:09",
+                "width_minutes": 7
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "jolie_marriage_2014",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "09:12",
+                "end_time": "09:19",
+                "representative_time": "09:15",
+                "width_minutes": 8
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "22:41",
+        "true_rank": 1,
+        "minute_error": 9,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "22:50",
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 4,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 5,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 10,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "woods_turned_professional_1996",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "22:40",
+                "end_time": "23:00",
+                "representative_time": "22:50",
+                "width_minutes": 21
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "woods_marriage_2004",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "22:40",
+                "end_time": "23:00",
+                "representative_time": "22:50",
+                "width_minutes": 21
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "woods_car_crash_2021",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "22:40",
+                "end_time": "23:00",
+                "representative_time": "22:50",
+                "width_minutes": 21
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "02:30",
+        "true_rank": 1,
+        "minute_error": 0,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
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+          "representative_time": "02:30",
+          "neighborhoods": [
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+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "pass",
+              "lead_points": 17.5,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "unique_minute_leads_neighbor_candidates"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "pass",
+              "lead_points": 17.5,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 4,
+              "reason": "unique_minute_leads_neighbor_candidates"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "pass",
+              "lead_points": 17.5,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 10,
+              "reason": "unique_minute_leads_neighbor_candidates"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": true,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "taylor_first_marriage_1950",
+              "winning_segment": {
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+                "end_time": "02:40",
+                "representative_time": "02:35",
+                "width_minutes": 11
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "taylor_oscar_1961",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "02:30",
+                "end_time": "02:30",
+                "representative_time": "02:30",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": true
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "taylor_brain_surgery_1997",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "02:26",
+                "end_time": "02:30",
+                "representative_time": "02:28",
+                "width_minutes": 5
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "16:41",
+        "true_rank": 1,
+        "minute_error": 3,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
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+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "fail",
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+              "compared_candidate_count": 4,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 10,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
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+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "montgomery_marriage_asher_1963",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "16:37",
+                "end_time": "16:46",
+                "representative_time": "16:41",
+                "width_minutes": 10
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "montgomery_bewitched_1964",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "16:28",
+                "end_time": "16:28",
+                "representative_time": "16:28",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "montgomery_cancer_1995",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "16:28",
+                "end_time": "16:28",
+                "representative_time": "16:28",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "23:09",
+        "true_rank": 7,
+        "minute_error": 6,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "23:08",
+          "neighborhoods": [
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+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
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+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "fail",
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+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "blocked",
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+              "compared_candidate_count": 8,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "picasso_moved_paris_1904",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "23:08",
+                "end_time": "23:09",
+                "representative_time": "23:08",
+                "width_minutes": 2
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "picasso_marriage_1918",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "23:05",
+                "end_time": "23:09",
+                "representative_time": "23:07",
+                "width_minutes": 5
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "picasso_guernica_1937",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "23:20",
+                "end_time": "23:20",
+                "representative_time": "23:20",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "18:40",
+        "true_rank": 5,
+        "minute_error": 10,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "18:38",
+          "neighborhoods": [
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+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "fail",
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+              "compared_candidate_count": 4,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 7,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "freud_marriage_1886",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "18:37",
+                "end_time": "18:40",
+                "representative_time": "18:38",
+                "width_minutes": 4
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "freud_dreams_publication_1899",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "18:28",
+                "end_time": "18:31",
+                "representative_time": "18:29",
+                "width_minutes": 4
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "freud_moved_london_1938",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "18:37",
+                "end_time": "18:40",
+                "representative_time": "18:38",
+                "width_minutes": 4
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "06:30",
+        "true_rank": 5,
+        "minute_error": 10,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "06:30",
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 1,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "blocked",
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+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 5,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "hayek_moved_los_angeles_1991",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "06:30",
+                "end_time": "06:30",
+                "representative_time": "06:30",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": true
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "hayek_frida_2002",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "06:30",
+                "end_time": "06:30",
+                "representative_time": "06:30",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": true
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "hayek_marriage_2009",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "06:44",
+                "end_time": "06:46",
+                "representative_time": "06:45",
+                "width_minutes": 3
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "18:22",
+        "true_rank": 1,
+        "minute_error": 1,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "18:22",
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 4,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 5,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 10,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "reich_cornell_degree_1957",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "18:19",
+                "end_time": "18:26",
+                "representative_time": "18:22",
+                "width_minutes": 8
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "reich_moved_california_1963",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "18:19",
+                "end_time": "18:26",
+                "representative_time": "18:22",
+                "width_minutes": 8
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "reich_music_18_premiere_1976",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "18:11",
+                "end_time": "18:31",
+                "representative_time": "18:21",
+                "width_minutes": 21
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "02:59",
+        "true_rank": 1,
+        "minute_error": 1,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
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+          "representative_time": "02:59",
+          "neighborhoods": [
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+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "fail",
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+              "compared_candidate_count": 4,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "fail",
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+              "compared_candidate_count": 10,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "brooks_real_life_1979",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "02:55",
+                "end_time": "03:03",
+                "representative_time": "02:59",
+                "width_minutes": 9
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "brooks_oscar_nomination_1988",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "02:55",
+                "end_time": "03:03",
+                "representative_time": "02:59",
+                "width_minutes": 9
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "brooks_marriage_1997",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "02:51",
+                "end_time": "03:03",
+                "representative_time": "02:57",
+                "width_minutes": 13
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "02:43",
+        "true_rank": 6,
+        "minute_error": 6,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
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+          "representative_time": "02:41",
+          "neighborhoods": [
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+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "fail",
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+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "fail",
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+              "compared_candidate_count": 4,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "fail",
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+              "compared_candidate_count": 10,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "ryan_elected_house_1998",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "02:39",
+                "end_time": "02:45",
+                "representative_time": "02:42",
+                "width_minutes": 7
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "ryan_marriage_2000",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "02:39",
+                "end_time": "02:43",
+                "representative_time": "02:41",
+                "width_minutes": 5
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "ryan_speaker_2015",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "02:27",
+                "end_time": "02:43",
+                "representative_time": "02:35",
+                "width_minutes": 17
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "17:30",
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+        "minute_error": 5,
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+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "17:27",
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+              "status": "fail",
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+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "fail",
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+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
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+              "status": "fail",
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+              "compared_candidate_count": 10,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "kennedy_marriage_1952",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "17:24",
+                "end_time": "17:35",
+                "representative_time": "17:29",
+                "width_minutes": 12
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "kennedy_big_game_1958",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "17:24",
+                "end_time": "17:31",
+                "representative_time": "17:27",
+                "width_minutes": 8
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "kennedy_name_that_tune_1974",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "17:24",
+                "end_time": "17:31",
+                "representative_time": "17:27",
+                "width_minutes": 8
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "15:21",
+        "true_rank": 5,
+        "minute_error": 9,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": null,
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 0,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 0,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 5,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 0,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "andrew_royal_navy_1979",
+              "winning_segment": null,
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "andrew_marriage_1986",
+              "winning_segment": null,
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "andrew_divorce_1996",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "15:20",
+                "end_time": "15:34",
+                "representative_time": "15:27",
+                "width_minutes": 15
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "02:10",
+        "true_rank": 17,
+        "minute_error": 10,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "02:10",
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 1,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 5,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 5,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "lennon_father_death_1980",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "02:04",
+                "end_time": "02:10",
+                "representative_time": "02:07",
+                "width_minutes": 7
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "lennon_into_sun_1998",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "02:10",
+                "end_time": "02:10",
+                "representative_time": "02:10",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": true
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "lennon_friendly_fire_2006",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "02:10",
+                "end_time": "02:10",
+                "representative_time": "02:10",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": true
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "21:39",
+        "true_rank": 1,
+        "minute_error": 3,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "21:37",
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 4,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 5,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 10,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "kennedy_stanford_2003",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "21:32",
+                "end_time": "21:42",
+                "representative_time": "21:37",
+                "width_minutes": 11
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "kennedy_elected_house_2012",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "21:46",
+                "end_time": "21:52",
+                "representative_time": "21:49",
+                "width_minutes": 7
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "kennedy_marriage_2012",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "21:32",
+                "end_time": "21:42",
+                "representative_time": "21:37",
+                "width_minutes": 11
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "19:29",
+        "true_rank": 12,
+        "minute_error": 9,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "19:29",
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 3,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 5,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 6,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "cobain_nevermind_1991",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "19:28",
+                "end_time": "19:30",
+                "representative_time": "19:29",
+                "width_minutes": 3
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "cobain_marriage_1992",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "19:28",
+                "end_time": "19:30",
+                "representative_time": "19:29",
+                "width_minutes": 3
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "cobain_overdose_1994",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "19:28",
+                "end_time": "19:30",
+                "representative_time": "19:29",
+                "width_minutes": 3
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "02:46",
+        "true_rank": 6,
+        "minute_error": 10,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "02:48",
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 4,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 5,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 7,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "robbins_marriage_1968",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "03:06",
+                "end_time": "03:06",
+                "representative_time": "03:06",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "robbins_diet_book_1987",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "02:46",
+                "end_time": "02:57",
+                "representative_time": "02:51",
+                "width_minutes": 12
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "robbins_health_book_1996",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "03:06",
+                "end_time": "03:06",
+                "representative_time": "03:06",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "22:10",
+        "true_rank": 11,
+        "minute_error": 10,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "22:10",
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 1,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 5,
+              "status": "blocked",
+              "lead_points": null,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 5,
+              "reason": "candidate_range_does_not_cover_both_sides_of_neighborhood"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "everett_marriage_1966",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "22:23",
+                "end_time": "22:29",
+                "representative_time": "22:26",
+                "width_minutes": 7
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "everett_medical_center_1969",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "22:10",
+                "end_time": "22:10",
+                "representative_time": "22:10",
+                "width_minutes": 1
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": true
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "everett_lung_cancer_2012",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "22:23",
+                "end_time": "22:29",
+                "representative_time": "22:26",
+                "width_minutes": 7
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "13:15",
+        "true_rank": 1,
+        "minute_error": 0,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "13:17",
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 4,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 5,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 10,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "eichinger_constantin_1979",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "13:14",
+                "end_time": "13:25",
+                "representative_time": "13:19",
+                "width_minutes": 12
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "eichinger_summit_1991",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "13:14",
+                "end_time": "13:20",
+                "representative_time": "13:17",
+                "width_minutes": 7
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "eichinger_marriage_2006",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "13:05",
+                "end_time": "13:20",
+                "representative_time": "13:12",
+                "width_minutes": 16
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      },
+      {
+        "case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout",
+        "candidate_count": 21,
+        "predicted_time": "19:59",
+        "true_rank": 1,
+        "minute_error": 1,
+        "would_confirm": false,
+        "false_confirmation": false,
+        "insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
+        "neighbor_stability": {
+          "scope": "candidate_neighbor_stability",
+          "representative_time": "20:00",
+          "neighborhoods": [
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 1,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 2,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 2,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 4,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            },
+            {
+              "radius_minutes": 5,
+              "status": "fail",
+              "lead_points": 0.0,
+              "compared_candidate_count": 10,
+              "reason": "minute_not_uniquely_separated_from_neighbors"
+            }
+          ],
+          "all_required_passed": false,
+          "boundary": "Neighbor separation is a diagnostic only until thresholds are frozen before public holdout replay."
+        },
+        "leave_one_event_out": {
+          "status": "fail",
+          "runs": [
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "19:50",
+                "end_time": "20:10",
+                "representative_time": "20:00",
+                "width_minutes": 21
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "takamoto_hanna_barbera_1961",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "19:50",
+                "end_time": "20:10",
+                "representative_time": "20:00",
+                "width_minutes": 21
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            },
+            {
+              "removed_event_id": "takamoto_heart_attack_2007",
+              "winning_segment": {
+                "start_time": "19:50",
+                "end_time": "20:10",
+                "representative_time": "20:00",
+                "width_minutes": 21
+              },
+              "original_unique_leader_retained": false
+            }
+          ]
+        }
+      }
+    ],
+    "metrics": {
+      "top_1_rate": 0.45,
+      "top_3_rate": 0.5,
+      "mean_absolute_minute_error": 5.8,
+      "false_confirmation_rate": 0.0,
+      "correct_insufficient_evidence_rejection_rate": 1.0,
+      "confirmation_coverage_rate": 0.0
+    },
+    "metric_gates_passed": false,
+    "verified_minute_claim_allowed": false
+  }
+}
diff --git a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v4_intake.json b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v4_intake.json
index 0de46d91..e02c3cc0 100644
--- a/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v4_intake.json
+++ b/references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v4_intake.json
@@ -1,16 +1,449 @@
 {
-  "schema_version": "minute-rectification-holdout-v4-intake",
-  "status": "collecting_independently_reviewed_cases",
+  "boundary": "This intake queue is not a frozen holdout. Promotion requires a new version, a passed source audit and a scoring identity frozen before blind replay.",
+  "cases": [
+    {
+      "adjudicator": "v3_sealed_set_post_audit_migration",
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1961-08-04",
+        "latitude": 21.3069,
+        "longitude": -157.8583,
+        "place": "Honolulu, Hawaii, United States",
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "record_type": "birth_record",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/adbvip/adbvip_08_04.htm?lang=r&nho2=161&nhor=1"
+        },
+        "time": "19:24",
+        "timezone_offset": -10.0
+      },
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "date": "1992-10-03",
+          "description": "Married Michelle Robinson.",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "id": "obama_wedding_1992_v4",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Obama Foundation",
+            "url": "https://obama.org/about/administration/chicago-where-it-began/"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "1996-11-05",
+          "description": "Elected to the Illinois State Senate.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "obama_illinois_senate_1996_v4",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_Senate_career_of_Barack_Obama"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "2008-11-04",
+          "description": "Elected President of the United States.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "obama_presidential_election_2008_v4",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "White House Archives",
+            "url": "https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/1600/presidents/barackobama/"
+          }
+        }
+      ],
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "false_minute_commitments": [
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "557feee24f6fdfc80f64082695026f9f8b69c44d84ca77b0ba380a27a19f8db0",
+          "offset_minutes": -10
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "22a3140ec461b71aad9a02ca07a642293908be11066b125feeeed00e9d336fee",
+          "offset_minutes": -5
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "e6a63445423e4f20e25aff4422a6c2e2171e8b5b1f817b7c942a6d45ac93ad42",
+          "offset_minutes": -2
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "2ca091c950d96413e45c35524031356dd2387b85a3444386c5b1c9562c884d6e",
+          "offset_minutes": -1
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "0d4cf78bcd4d3b9e7ba2385d1c13978ab1a634b299711bd4c0b899cad18a4067",
+          "offset_minutes": 1
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "30242701a0c8d92f807da66e7fb53ca894dea6e36e354f406c74f444d8fbecb8",
+          "offset_minutes": 2
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "7267b8aaf5c73b49953b946fba31ca1fb5ea707720e65ca030ba4327eda3c4fe",
+          "offset_minutes": 5
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "b1d28e8285438f26532f5bfd2447df34eddbe24e26d53d7d4069b87d1420704c",
+          "offset_minutes": 10
+        }
+      ],
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "frozen_before_scoring": true,
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "independent_human_reviewed": true,
+      "ingested_at": "2026-08-28T16:29:41.362489Z",
+      "review_attestation": "Attests the v3 sealed-set review already recorded for this public AA case; not a new biography audit.",
+      "subject_label": "Barack Obama"
+    },
+    {
+      "adjudicator": "v3_sealed_set_post_audit_migration",
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1970-01-29",
+        "latitude": 42.6833,
+        "longitude": -89.0167,
+        "place": "Janesville, Wisconsin, United States",
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "record_type": "birth_record",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Ryan%2C_Paul"
+        },
+        "time": "02:37",
+        "timezone_offset": -6.0
+      },
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "case_id": "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "date": "1998-11-03",
+          "description": "Was elected to the United States House of Representatives.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "ryan_elected_house_1998",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "United States House of Representatives",
+            "url": "https://history.house.gov/People/Detail/20147"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "2000-12-02",
+          "description": "Married Janna Little.",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "id": "ryan_marriage_2000",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica",
+            "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Paul-Ryan"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "2015-10-29",
+          "description": "Was elected Speaker of the House.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "ryan_speaker_2015",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2015_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election"
+          }
+        }
+      ],
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "false_minute_commitments": [
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "557feee24f6fdfc80f64082695026f9f8b69c44d84ca77b0ba380a27a19f8db0",
+          "offset_minutes": -10
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "22a3140ec461b71aad9a02ca07a642293908be11066b125feeeed00e9d336fee",
+          "offset_minutes": -5
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "e6a63445423e4f20e25aff4422a6c2e2171e8b5b1f817b7c942a6d45ac93ad42",
+          "offset_minutes": -2
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "2ca091c950d96413e45c35524031356dd2387b85a3444386c5b1c9562c884d6e",
+          "offset_minutes": -1
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "0d4cf78bcd4d3b9e7ba2385d1c13978ab1a634b299711bd4c0b899cad18a4067",
+          "offset_minutes": 1
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "30242701a0c8d92f807da66e7fb53ca894dea6e36e354f406c74f444d8fbecb8",
+          "offset_minutes": 2
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "7267b8aaf5c73b49953b946fba31ca1fb5ea707720e65ca030ba4327eda3c4fe",
+          "offset_minutes": 5
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "b1d28e8285438f26532f5bfd2447df34eddbe24e26d53d7d4069b87d1420704c",
+          "offset_minutes": 10
+        }
+      ],
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "frozen_before_scoring": true,
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "independent_human_reviewed": true,
+      "ingested_at": "2026-08-28T16:29:41.658178Z",
+      "review_attestation": "Attests the v3 sealed-set review already recorded for this public AA case; not a new biography audit.",
+      "subject_label": "Paul Ryan"
+    },
+    {
+      "adjudicator": "v3_sealed_set_post_audit_migration",
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1975-10-09",
+        "latitude": 40.7667,
+        "longitude": -73.9833,
+        "place": "Manhattan, New York, United States",
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "record_type": "birth_record",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Lennon%2C_Sean"
+        },
+        "time": "02:00",
+        "timezone_offset": -4.0
+      },
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "date": "1980-12-08",
+          "description": "His father John Lennon was murdered.",
+          "domain": "health_pressure",
+          "id": "lennon_father_death_1980",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica",
+            "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Lennon"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "1998-05-19",
+          "description": "Released his debut album Into the Sun.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "lennon_into_sun_1998",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "AllMusic",
+            "url": "https://www.allmusic.com/album/into-the-sun-mw0000036772"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "2006-09-26",
+          "description": "Released the album Friendly Fire.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "lennon_friendly_fire_2006",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_Fire_(Sean_Lennon_album)"
+          }
+        }
+      ],
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "false_minute_commitments": [
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "557feee24f6fdfc80f64082695026f9f8b69c44d84ca77b0ba380a27a19f8db0",
+          "offset_minutes": -10
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "22a3140ec461b71aad9a02ca07a642293908be11066b125feeeed00e9d336fee",
+          "offset_minutes": -5
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "e6a63445423e4f20e25aff4422a6c2e2171e8b5b1f817b7c942a6d45ac93ad42",
+          "offset_minutes": -2
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "2ca091c950d96413e45c35524031356dd2387b85a3444386c5b1c9562c884d6e",
+          "offset_minutes": -1
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "0d4cf78bcd4d3b9e7ba2385d1c13978ab1a634b299711bd4c0b899cad18a4067",
+          "offset_minutes": 1
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "30242701a0c8d92f807da66e7fb53ca894dea6e36e354f406c74f444d8fbecb8",
+          "offset_minutes": 2
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "7267b8aaf5c73b49953b946fba31ca1fb5ea707720e65ca030ba4327eda3c4fe",
+          "offset_minutes": 5
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "b1d28e8285438f26532f5bfd2447df34eddbe24e26d53d7d4069b87d1420704c",
+          "offset_minutes": 10
+        }
+      ],
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "frozen_before_scoring": true,
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "independent_human_reviewed": true,
+      "ingested_at": "2026-08-28T16:29:41.829087Z",
+      "review_attestation": "Attests the v3 sealed-set review already recorded for this public AA case; not a new biography audit.",
+      "subject_label": "Sean Lennon"
+    },
+    {
+      "adjudicator": "v3_sealed_set_post_audit_migration",
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1967-02-20",
+        "latitude": 46.9833,
+        "longitude": -123.8167,
+        "place": "Aberdeen, Washington, United States",
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "record_type": "birth_record",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Cobain%2C_Kurt"
+        },
+        "time": "19:38",
+        "timezone_offset": -8.0
+      },
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "date": "1991-09-24",
+          "description": "Nirvana released Nevermind.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "cobain_nevermind_1991",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Rock and Roll Hall of Fame",
+            "url": "https://www.rockhall.com/inductees/nirvana"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "1992-02-24",
+          "description": "Married Courtney Love.",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "id": "cobain_marriage_1992",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica",
+            "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Kurt-Cobain"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "1994-03-04",
+          "description": "Was hospitalized after an overdose in Rome.",
+          "domain": "health_pressure",
+          "id": "cobain_overdose_1994",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "The Seattle Times",
+            "url": "https://www.seattletimes.com/entertainment/music/kurt-cobain-a-timeline-of-his-life/"
+          }
+        }
+      ],
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
+      "false_minute_commitments": [
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "557feee24f6fdfc80f64082695026f9f8b69c44d84ca77b0ba380a27a19f8db0",
+          "offset_minutes": -10
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "22a3140ec461b71aad9a02ca07a642293908be11066b125feeeed00e9d336fee",
+          "offset_minutes": -5
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "e6a63445423e4f20e25aff4422a6c2e2171e8b5b1f817b7c942a6d45ac93ad42",
+          "offset_minutes": -2
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "2ca091c950d96413e45c35524031356dd2387b85a3444386c5b1c9562c884d6e",
+          "offset_minutes": -1
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "0d4cf78bcd4d3b9e7ba2385d1c13978ab1a634b299711bd4c0b899cad18a4067",
+          "offset_minutes": 1
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "30242701a0c8d92f807da66e7fb53ca894dea6e36e354f406c74f444d8fbecb8",
+          "offset_minutes": 2
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "7267b8aaf5c73b49953b946fba31ca1fb5ea707720e65ca030ba4327eda3c4fe",
+          "offset_minutes": 5
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "b1d28e8285438f26532f5bfd2447df34eddbe24e26d53d7d4069b87d1420704c",
+          "offset_minutes": 10
+        }
+      ],
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "frozen_before_scoring": true,
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "independent_human_reviewed": true,
+      "ingested_at": "2026-08-28T16:29:41.971107Z",
+      "review_attestation": "Attests the v3 sealed-set review already recorded for this public AA case; not a new biography audit.",
+      "subject_label": "Kurt Cobain"
+    }
+  ],
   "minimum_gate": {
-    "public_aa_cases": 20,
-    "events_per_case": 3,
+    "day_precision_events_per_case": 3,
     "domains_per_case": 2,
+    "events_per_case": 3,
     "independent_event_sources_per_case": 2,
     "negative_minutes_per_case": 4,
-    "day_precision_events_per_case": 3
+    "public_aa_cases": 20
   },
-  "cases": [],
   "production_tuning_allowed": false,
-  "verified_minute_claim_allowed": false,
-  "boundary": "This intake queue is not a frozen holdout. Promotion requires a new version, a passed source audit and a scoring identity frozen before blind replay."
+  "schema_version": "minute-rectification-holdout-v4-intake",
+  "status": "collecting_independently_reviewed_cases",
+  "verified_minute_claim_allowed": false
 }
diff --git a/tests/test_minute_rectification_holdout_intake.py b/tests/test_minute_rectification_holdout_intake.py
index 1003753a..4ed4abe0 100644
--- a/tests/test_minute_rectification_holdout_intake.py
+++ b/tests/test_minute_rectification_holdout_intake.py
@@ -4,7 +4,15 @@ from copy import deepcopy
 from pathlib import Path
 
 from scripts.minute_rectification_holdout_intake import DEFAULT_INTAKE, append_case
-from scripts.minute_rectification_holdout_validator import DEFAULT_MANIFEST
+from scripts.minute_rectification_holdout_validator import DEFAULT_MANIFEST, case_errors
+
+V3_HOLDOUT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] / "references" / "real_case_calibration" / "minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json"
+EXPECTED_V4_INTAKE_CASE_IDS = {
+    "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
+    "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout",
+    "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
+    "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout",
+}
 
 
 def _reviewed_case() -> dict:
@@ -65,9 +73,40 @@ def test_intake_rejects_missing_review_and_commitments(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
     assert "false_minute_commitments_do_not_match_offsets" in report["errors"]
 
 
-def test_default_intake_is_non_production_and_empty() -> None:
+def test_default_intake_is_non_production_and_contains_day_precision_v3_cases() -> None:
     data = json.loads(DEFAULT_INTAKE.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
 
-    assert data["cases"] == []
+    assert {case["case_id"] for case in data["cases"]} == EXPECTED_V4_INTAKE_CASE_IDS
+    assert len(data["cases"]) == 4
     assert data["production_tuning_allowed"] is False
     assert data["verified_minute_claim_allowed"] is False
+
+
+def test_year_precision_v3_cases_are_rejected_for_insufficient_day_precision() -> None:
+    v3 = json.loads(V3_HOLDOUT.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+    gate = json.loads(DEFAULT_INTAKE.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))["minimum_gate"]
+    rejected: dict[str, list[str]] = {}
+    for case in v3["cases"]:
+        payload = deepcopy(case)
+        payload.update({
+            "adjudicator": "v3_sealed_set_post_audit_migration",
+            "independent_human_reviewed": True,
+            "frozen_before_scoring": True,
+            "false_minute_commitments": [
+                {
+                    "offset_minutes": offset,
+                    "commitment_hash": hashlib.sha256(f"control:{offset}".encode()).hexdigest(),
+                }
+                for offset in case["false_minute_offsets"]
+            ],
+        })
+        errors = case_errors(payload, gate, require_review_safeguards=True)
+        if errors:
+            rejected[str(case["case_id"])] = errors
+
+    assert "insufficient_day_precision_events" in rejected["john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout"]
+    assert "insufficient_day_precision_events" in rejected["iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout"]
+    assert "insufficient_day_precision_events" in rejected["angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout"]
+    for case_id in EXPECTED_V4_INTAKE_CASE_IDS:
+        assert case_id not in rejected
+    assert all("insufficient_day_precision_events" in errors for errors in rejected.values())