fix(rectification): bind quality cards to the followup probe

Graduation no longer gets the college-experience question, and identical D24 splits only ask once.

Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com>

frontend/src/lib/rectification-agentic/v9/choice-card.ts

@@ -100,6 +100,7 @@ export type ChoiceCardFollowup = Readonly<{
   choice_kind?: EventProbeChoiceKind;
   style_options?: readonly EventProbeStyleOption[];
   semantic_key?: string;
+  probe_id?: string;
 }>;
 
 export type ChoiceCardEvidence = Readonly<{
@@ -230,12 +231,28 @@ function followupDomain(followup: ChoiceCardFollowup): string | null {
   return THEME_DOMAIN[followup.ask_theme] ?? null;
 }
 
+function probeMatchesId(item: DiscriminatingEventProbe, probeId: string): boolean {
+  return item.semantic_key === probeId;
+}
+
 function pickProbe(
   probes: readonly DiscriminatingEventProbe[] | undefined,
   domain: string | null,
   followup?: ChoiceCardFollowup,
 ): DiscriminatingEventProbe | null {
   if (!probes?.length) return null;
+  const probeId = followup?.probe_id?.trim() ?? "";
+  const semanticKey = followup?.semantic_key?.trim() ?? "";
+  const hasKey = Boolean(probeId || semanticKey);
+  if (probeId) {
+    const byId = probes.find((item) => probeMatchesId(item, probeId));
+    if (byId) return byId;
+  }
+  if (semanticKey) {
+    const keyed = probes.find((item) => item.semantic_key === semanticKey);
+    if (keyed) return keyed;
+  }
+  if (hasKey) return null;
   const inDomain = domain ? probes.filter((item) => item.domain === domain) : [...probes];
   const pool = inDomain.length > 0 ? inDomain : probes;
   if (followup?.choice_kind === "event_quality") {
@@ -244,10 +261,6 @@ function pickProbe(
     );
     if (quality) return quality;
   }
-  if (followup?.semantic_key) {
-    const keyed = pool.find((item) => item.semantic_key === followup.semantic_key);
-    if (keyed) return keyed;
-  }
   return pool[0] ?? probes[0] ?? null;
 }
 
@@ -386,8 +399,10 @@ export function buildChoiceFrame(
   const skipQuestion = skipThisProbe
     || followup.intent === "out_of_sample_check"
     || followup.source === "oos_blind";
+  const probeKey = followup.semantic_key?.trim() || followup.probe_id?.trim() || "";
+  const questionBase = `${followup.method_id}:${followup.ask_theme}:${scoring ? "score" : "holdout"}`;
   return {
-    question_id: `${followup.method_id}:${followup.ask_theme}:${scoring ? "score" : "holdout"}`,
+    question_id: probeKey ? `${questionBase}:${probeKey}` : questionBase,
     method_id: followup.method_id,
     period: periodFor(input.evidence, domain, input.probes, input.birthDate, followup),
     prompt: hypothesis.prompt,