Strengthen finance adjudication promise scoring

docs/research/wealth_adjudicator_second_pass_audit_2026_06_27.md

@@ -0,0 +1,129 @@
+# Wealth Adjudicator Second-Pass Audit (2026-06-27)
+
+> 目标：在第一轮 `public_wealth_status` 护栏落地后，继续修复财富裁决器的两个核心问题：  
+> 1. `wealth promise strength` 没有入分  
+> 2. `income_growth` 与 `public_wealth_status` 仍会互相吞并
+
+---
+
+## 1. 本轮修复点
+
+本轮没有继续扩新标签，而是只做两件事：
+
+1. **把 `wealth_promise_strength` 接入 finance adjudicator 显式计分**
+   - `strong` -> `+20`
+   - `moderate` -> `+10`
+2. **增加 `income_growth` 优先分流**
+   - 当 `gains_convergence` 很强
+   - 且 `wealth/career` 公众财富信号不够强
+   - 则优先落 `income_growth`
+
+这意味着财富裁决器不再只看：
+
+- `wealth_convergence`
+- `gains_convergence`
+- `career_convergence`
+- `dual dasha`
+
+而开始把“本命财富 promise”当成正式入分项。
+
+---
+
+## 2. 新增回归边界
+
+本轮新增并跑通两条主仓回归测试：
+
+1. `Britney-like`  
+   目标：当收益爆发明显高于公众财富身份信号时，应更偏 `income_growth`
+2. `Rihanna-like`  
+   目标：当 `wealth promise strength = strong` 时，允许从第一轮的 under-lift 状态被抬升到更合理的 `public_wealth_status`
+
+---
+
+## 3. Before / After
+
+| case | first-pass outcome | second-pass outcome | change |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| Britney-like breakout income growth | `moderate_probability_window` + `public_wealth_status` | `moderate_probability_window` + `income_growth` | 修复了标签误吸收，收益爆发不再被误说成公众财富身份 |
+| Rihanna-like commercial empire visibility | `weak_window_needs_confirmation` 或依赖外层 workaround | `moderate_probability_window` + `public_wealth_status` | 通过 `wealth_promise_strength` 显式入分，终于能把强财富 promise 兑现到标签层 |
+
+---
+
+## 4. 关键结论
+
+### 4.1 `wealth promise strength` 已经从“解释层概念”进入“裁决层分数”
+
+这是本轮最值钱的变化。
+
+之前：
+
+- `Lakshmi / Dhana / Yogi` 模板更多停留在解释和研究文档里
+- finance adjudicator 不真的把它们当分数
+
+现在：
+
+- `wealth_promise_strength` 已成为显式计分输入
+
+虽然它还不是最终形态，但财富裁决器已经开始真正吸收本仓现成的财富 promise 资产。
+
+### 4.2 `income_growth` 和 `public_wealth_status` 第一次开始分家
+
+第一轮护栏虽然堵住了“弱窗口乱贴公众财富标签”，但 `Britney-like` 仍会被误贴成 `public_wealth_status`。
+
+第二轮后：
+
+- `Britney-like` -> `income_growth`
+- `Rihanna-like` -> `public_wealth_status`
+
+这说明财富 adjudicator 不再把所有“财富变好”都说成同一种事。
+
+### 4.3 `Rihanna-like` 终于从“强样本漏判”进入“可校准命中”
+
+第一轮里最刺眼的问题是：
+
+- `Rihanna` 这种 textbook 级商业财富样本
+- 竟然还抬不起来
+
+现在这条样本第一次被 `wealth promise strength` 正式救活。  
+这说明问题的确不是“标签词库不够”，而是 promise 分没进来。
+
+---
+
+## 5. 当前仍未完成的部分
+
+本轮虽然把骨架往前推了一截，但还没有结束：
+
+1. `wealth_promise_strength` 现在还是一个抽象输入，尚未从完整 `full-reading.modules.yogas_doshas + template hooks` 自动汇总
+2. `Lakshmi / Dhana / Yogi` 还没有全部自动折叠成统一 promise 指标
+3. `liquidity_cashout` 依然没有建立独立 uplift 逻辑
+4. `public_wealth_status` 与 `asset_accumulation` 还没有完全分开
+
+---
+
+## 6. 下一轮最值钱的动作
+
+下一轮不该再泛泛讨论“财富准不准”，而应直接做这三件事：
+
+1. 从 `full-reading.modules.yogas_doshas.dhana_yogas` 自动提取 `wealth_promise_strength`
+2. 把 `lakshmi_dhana_activation_chain` / `yogi_asc_tight_orb_wealth` 接成真实 promise hook，而不是手工传入
+3. 增加 `asset_accumulation` vs `public_wealth_status` 的回归样本
+
+---
+
+## 7. 本轮状态判断
+
+本轮可以诚实宣称：
+
+- 财务裁决器已经不再只是 convergence + dasha 的薄聚合器
+- 本命财富 promise 已开始进入显式计分
+- `income_growth` 与 `public_wealth_status` 已出现第一层真实分流
+
+但还不能宣称：
+
+- 财富 adjudicator 已经完整封顶
+- Lakshmi / Dhana / Yogi 已经全部自动闭环进裁决器
+
+更准确的说法是：
+
+> 财富 adjudicator 已经从“行为护栏阶段”进入“财富 promise 真正入分阶段”，  
+> 并开始具备区分收益爆发与公众财富身份的裁决能力。

mcp_server.py

@@ -149,12 +149,15 @@ def _derive_event_judgement(route: str, present: Dict[str, Any], missing: List[s
 
     if route == "finance":
         score = 0
+        wealth_promise = present.get("wealth_promise_strength")
+        wealth_promise_level = wealth_promise.get("level") if isinstance(wealth_promise, dict) else None
         score += 15 if present.get("d2_hora") else 0
         score += 10 if present.get("d10_dasamsa") else 0
         score += 10 if present.get("shadbala") else 0
         score += 10 if present.get("ashtakavarga_house_scores") else 0
         score += 10 if present.get("vimshottari_current") else 0
         score += 10 if present.get("narayana_current") else 0
+        score += 20 if wealth_promise_level == "strong" else 10 if wealth_promise_level == "moderate" else 0
         score += max(
             _convergence_score(present.get("wealth_convergence")),
             _convergence_score(present.get("gains_convergence")),
@@ -186,7 +189,12 @@ def _derive_event_judgement(route: str, present: Dict[str, Any], missing: List[s
         else:
             verdict = "insufficient_evidence"
         payout_label = None
-        if public_wealth_lift and score >= 60:
+        gains_score = _convergence_score(present.get("gains_convergence"))
+        wealth_score = _convergence_score(present.get("wealth_convergence"))
+        career_score = _convergence_score(present.get("career_convergence"))
+        if gains_score >= 60 and wealth_score < 40 and career_score < 40:
+            payout_label = "income_growth"
+        elif public_wealth_lift and score >= 60:
             payout_label = "public_wealth_status"
         return {
             "event_family": "finance",

tests/test_mcp_strict_workflow_finance.py

@@ -42,3 +42,41 @@ def test_finance_public_wealth_label_can_lift_visible_wealth_cases() -> None:
     assert judgement["score"] == 60
     assert judgement["verdict"] == "moderate_probability_window"
     assert judgement["payout_label"] == "public_wealth_status"
+
+
+def test_finance_prefers_income_growth_when_gains_outrun_public_status_signals() -> None:
+    judgement = _derive_event_judgement(
+        "finance",
+        {
+            "wealth_convergence": {"convergence_level": "L1", "probability": "+15-20%"},
+            "gains_convergence": {"convergence_level": "L3", "probability": "50-65%"},
+            "vimshottari_current": {"mahadasha": "Venus", "antardasha": "Moon"},
+            "narayana_current": {"sign": "Gemini", "lord": "Mercury"},
+        },
+        [],
+    )
+
+    assert judgement["event_family"] == "finance"
+    assert judgement["score"] == 80
+    assert judgement["verdict"] == "moderate_probability_window"
+    assert judgement["payout_label"] == "income_growth"
+
+
+def test_finance_strong_wealth_promise_can_unlock_public_wealth_status() -> None:
+    judgement = _derive_event_judgement(
+        "finance",
+        {
+            "wealth_convergence": {"convergence_level": "L1", "probability": "+15-20%"},
+            "gains_convergence": {"convergence_level": "L1", "probability": "+15-20%"},
+            "career_convergence": {"convergence_level": "L1", "probability": "+15-20%"},
+            "vimshottari_current": {"mahadasha": "Venus", "antardasha": "Mercury"},
+            "narayana_current": {"sign": "Taurus", "lord": "Venus"},
+            "wealth_promise_strength": {"level": "strong", "source": "dhana_yogas"},
+        },
+        [],
+    )
+
+    assert judgement["event_family"] == "finance"
+    assert judgement["score"] == 60
+    assert judgement["verdict"] == "moderate_probability_window"
+    assert judgement["payout_label"] == "public_wealth_status"