feat: sync astrology provenance gates

2026-07-19 08:59:33 +08:00
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+# Real-case timing optimization audit — 2026-07-19
+
+## Current verified layer
+
+Positive-event replay is healthy:
+
+| Manifest | Cases | Ready | Boundary |
+|---|---:|---:|---|
+| `references/real_case_calibration/replay_manifest.json` | 10 | 10 | known positive events only |
+| `references/real_case_calibration/replay_manifest_holdout_v2.json` | 10 | 10 | blind positive holdout; not specificity proof |
+| `references/real_case_calibration/replay_manifest_probe3_v2.json` | 3 | 3 | probe batch only |
+
+This verifies technical recall around known dated events. It does not verify day/month predictive specificity.
+
+## Current blocked layer
+
+Day-level negative holdout remains empty:
+
+- `references/real_case_calibration/day_level_holdout_v3_preregistration.json`
+- `annotation_count = 0`
+- `negative_count = 0`
+- `positive_count = 0`
+- `production_tuning_allowed = false`
+- `status = awaiting_independent_labels`
+
+Existing 40 control dates remain diagnostic only because they were already observed before preregistration and are not independent human-reviewed labels.
+
+Pilot source queue exists at `references/real_case_calibration/day_level_holdout_v3_pilot_source_queue_2026_07_19.json`.
+
+Boundary: the queue contains public-source candidates for Steve Jobs, Barack Obama, and Albert Einstein. It is not a holdout manifest and must not be used for timing evaluation until independent adjudication converts rows into frozen annotations.
+
+## Optimization needed
+
+1. Collect independent human-labeled non-event intervals for the same subjects/domains.
+2. Freeze labels before scoring.
+3. Run candidate day/month ranking over positive and negative windows together.
+4. Promote timing claims only if positive windows rank above negative windows under frozen rules.
+
+Until then, precise day/month output must stay:
+
+- `timing_precision = candidate_day_window`
+- `claim_status = exploratory_unvalidated`
+- `production_tuning_allowed = false`
+
+Allowed UX: ranked candidate windows w/ evidence and confidence caps.
+
+Forbidden UX: packaging candidate dates as verified event promises.
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+# Shadbala / AV component provenance report — 2026-07-19
+
+Source registry: `references/oracle/shadbala_av_component_provenance_registry_2026_07_19.json`
+
+Status: `classified_unresolved`
+
+Truth policy: `method_variant_not_majority_vote`
+
+Production tuning: `false`
+
+## Component families
+
+| Category | Rows | Component family | Allowed claim |
+|---|---:|---|---|
+| `shadbala_formula_variant` | 35 | Shadbala six-force components | `component_method_variant` |
+| `derived_total_from_component_variants` | 7 | Shadbala total | `derived_total_blocked_until_components_close` |
+| `ashtakavarga_table_or_contributor_variant` | 8 | Ashtakavarga tables | `table_variant` |
+| `endpoint_or_varga_semantics` | 10 | Varga endpoint semantics | `current_target_observation_only` |
+
+## Unit / source obligations
+
+- Sthana, Dig, Kala, Chesta, Naisargika, and Drik Bala each require formula source, unit, cap/floor, and worked example.
+- Total Rupa/Virupa cannot be arbitrated until component units close.
+- Ashtakavarga BAV/SAV requires contributor table, shodhana state, Lagna inclusion, and row/column schema.
+- VedAstro varga endpoint rows require explicit endpoint/method semantics before truth arbitration.
+
+## Current claim boundary
+
+Allowed:
+
+- current target observations;
+- named method variants;
+- component-level unresolved status;
+- user-safe confidence caps.
+
+Forbidden:
+
+- global Shadbala/AV truth;
+- production tuning;
+- majority-vote truth;
+- copying raw research debt into runtime.
+
+## Next source-evidence queue
+
+1. Map 35 Shadbala component rows to `sthana/dig/kala/chesta/naisargika/drik`.
+2. Attach VP Jain / Xalen / jyotishganit / PyJHora observation source per component.
+3. Mark each component as `source_explicit`, `method_variant`, or `insufficient_evidence`.
+4. Recompute totals only after component status closes.