From 8cd5daab0434364c008831fef3572b693024d5a2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: 732642856 <732642856@qq.com>
Date: Sat, 27 Jun 2026 21:49:09 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] Add first-pass wealth adjudicator audit

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+# Wealth Adjudicator First-Pass Audit (2026-06-27)
+
+> 目标：给财富事件裁决器建立第一批可回归标靶，避免“发财”成为模糊大词。  
+> 本轮先冻结女性样本，重点观察 `income_growth / public_wealth_status` 两类事件。
+
+---
+
+## 1. 审计方法
+
+本轮按 `event_judgment_wealth.md` 的四层框架看财富事件：
+
+1. `wealth promise`
+2. `wealth activation`
+3. `wealth manifestation`
+4. `payout label`
+
+并同时观察以下结构信号：
+
+- `wealth_family`
+- `gains_wishes`
+- `career_status`
+- `Vimshottari + Narayana`
+- `Shadbala strong planets`
+- `template hooks`（Lakshmi / Yogi）
+
+---
+
+## 2. 第一批标靶集
+
+| case | real-world event type | payout label | promise verdict | activation verdict | manifestation verdict | payout-label verdict | final adjudicator verdict | miss type | suspected missing features |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| Oprah Winfrey - The Oprah Winfrey Show launch (1986-09-08) | media breakout / wealth path opening | public_wealth_status | medium | weak (`wealth_family L1`) | medium | weak | under-lifted | activation weak | public wealth status should combine career + gains + wealth instead of waiting for pure wealth-family hit |
+| Britney Spears - ...Baby One More Time release (1998-10-23) | breakout income growth | income_growth | medium | strong (`gains_wishes L3`) | medium | medium | moderate window | manifestation split | income growth vs public status vs career visibility need cleaner separation |
+| Priyanka Chopra - Quantico breakout (2015-09-27) | global visibility / commercial expansion | public_wealth_status | medium | weak (`career_status L1`) | medium | weak | under-lifted | payout-label weak | public wealth status not lifted from career-only signal |
+| Princess Diana - Royal wedding visibility event (1981-07-29) | status elevation with wealth visibility implications | public_wealth_status | medium | strong (`career_status L4`) | medium | medium | moderate but not wealth-specific | manifestation split | separate status visibility from actual wealth accumulation |
+
+---
+
+## 3. 关键发现
+
+### 3.1 财富线目前对 `public_wealth_status` 的识别不够敏锐
+
+当前系统更容易识别：
+
+- `career_status`
+- `gains_wishes`
+
+但对以下更复杂标签仍然偏弱：
+
+- `public_wealth_status`
+- `liquidity_cashout`
+
+这说明财富聚合器还更像“事业/收益聚合器”，还不是完整的财富事件标签器。
+
+### 3.2 `income_growth` 比 `public_wealth_status` 更容易被点亮
+
+在女性样本里：
+
+- `Britney Spears` 的音乐爆发，对 `gains_wishes` 是明显强信号（`L3`）
+- 但 `Oprah / Priyanka / Diana` 这类偏“身份与商业可见度跃迁”的事件，并没有被同样稳定地抬升
+
+这说明目前的财富线更偏向：
+
+- 收益/流量/事业势能
+
+而不是：
+
+- 公众财富身份
+- 商业帝国型财富地位
+
+### 3.3 财富线已经出现婚恋线的同构缺陷
+
+财富线也出现了和婚恋线类似的第四类缺陷：
+
+## `payout-label failure`
+
+定义：
+
+- 旧体系或现实世界事件明确成立
+- 新聚合器有部分支持信号
+- 但没有把事件抬成正确的财富标签
+
+当前疑似样本：
+
+- `Oprah Winfrey`
+- `Priyanka Chopra`
+
+---
+
+## 4. 初步缺陷类型学
+
+1. `promise weak`
+2. `activation/convergence weak`
+3. `manifestation split`
+4. `payout-label failure`
+
+目前这批女性样本里，最主要的是：
+
+- `activation/convergence weak`
+- `manifestation split`
+- `payout-label failure`
+
+---
+
+## 5. 下一轮修复重点
+
+1. 让 `public_wealth_status` 不只依赖 `wealth_family`，而要允许 `career_status + gains_wishes + wealth promise` 联合抬升
+2. 区分：
+   - `income growth`
+   - `asset accumulation`
+   - `liquidity/cash-out`
+   - `public wealth visibility`
+3. 增加女性财富样本：
+   - `Rihanna`
+   - `Oprah`
+   - `Britney`
+   - `Taylor Swift` / `Beyonce`（若仓内已有稳定数据）
+
+---
+
+## 6. 版本备注
+
+- 这是第一轮财富审计，不是最终 benchmark
+- 本轮目标是先把财富事件标签拆开，而不是直接宣称“财富 timing 已经精准”