From 9abf2da5f9e104d731d45877f85e27598b1cb8e9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jesse-ux Date: Mon, 5 Oct 2026 02:11:22 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] research(rectification): nadi second-level study fails the preregistered gates (BUG-1240) N1, N2, N3, and N5 do not pass. Switching ayanamsa moves level-5 lords and equal-division D150 past the 20% wording line. Two full runs are byte-identical. No production scoring change. closed_by_design. --- docs/BUG_HISTORY.md | 16 +- docs/research/ACTIVE_FRONTS.md | 1 + .../nadi_seconds_results_2026_10_05.json | 13276 ++++++++++++++++ .../rectification_nadi_seconds_2026_10_05.md | 123 + ...fication-nadi-seconds-research-20261005.md | 47 + docs/tasks/README.md | 2 +- 6 files changed, 13456 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) create mode 100644 docs/research/nadi_seconds_results_2026_10_05.json create mode 100644 docs/research/rectification_nadi_seconds_2026_10_05.md create mode 100644 docs/tasks/PROGRESS-rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005.md diff --git a/docs/BUG_HISTORY.md b/docs/BUG_HISTORY.md index 9822d5c5..a590bd3f 100644 --- a/docs/BUG_HISTORY.md +++ b/docs/BUG_HISTORY.md @@ -16660,16 +16660,16 @@ ## BUG-1240 | 秒级 / 纳迪校准从未经过检验 -- 状态：investigating +- 状态：closed_by_design（2026-10-05 离线研究：预先登记的 N1、N2、N3、N5 都不过门；换岁差时第 5 层和等分 D150 的变化超过 20%，对外不说秒级） - 首次发现：2026-10-05 - 最近更新：2026-10-05 -- 影响面：生时校正对外精度口径；`scripts/active_rectification_event_engine.py` 的 Vimshottari 计分只使用前三层。Sookshma、Prana 与 D150 不在评价集内。 -- 用户现象：校正结果不能被说成秒级。记录时间多数取整到 5 分钟，问前事对上某一天也不能单独证明某一秒。 +- 影响面：生时校正对外精度口径。主链 Vimshottari 只评前三层。第 4 层、第 5 层和 D150 不进入计分。 +- 用户现象：校正给出时间范围，不能把结果说成某一秒。公开评价集里 52/77 例的记录分钟是 5 的倍数，记录本身没有秒。 - 触发条件：无用户路径。离线研究，任务书 `docs/tasks/TASK-rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005.md`。 -- 根因：未知。已知的是主链不评第 4、第 5 层，且公开评价集的记录时钟没有秒。纳迪式规则能否胜过安慰剂日期，要等预先登记的检验跑完才能写。 -- 修复：尚未改生产代码。研究代码在 `scripts/research/nadi_seconds_lib.py` 与 `scripts/research/nadi_seconds_run.py`。 -- 验证：N0 对账测试已通过（前三层与主链 0 差）。N1–N5 尚未在 v5 上跑。 -- 防复发：规则、阈值和种子先写入预登记再跑；看过结果后改的规则不能用来判过门。不得重调 BUG-1091 已关闭的权重。 -- 相关记录：BUG-560、BUG-1090、BUG-1091、BUG-1105。 +- 根因：在 77 例公开 AA 上，预先登记的规则没有胜过安慰剂。第 5 层在记录分钟上的拟合率 0.221，日期平移安慰剂 0.216，跨例换日期 0.225。六项主检验只有「第 4 层对日期平移」一项达到 p < 0.05，过门要求六项都达到。留出一件的提升区间含 0。六题后的区间里用第 5 层重排，±10 分钟从 25/77 降到 5/77。换一种岁差，第 5 层约 86%–92% 的日事件换主星，等分 D150 为 73/73 例换段。±15 秒已经让约六成日事件换掉第 5 层。 +- 修复：不改生产计分，不立实现单。研究记录见 `docs/research/rectification_nadi_seconds_2026_10_05.md`。 +- 验证：`tests/test_nadi_seconds_research.py` 10 项通过（前三层对账 0 差，77 例 964 件事件）。结果 JSON 由 `scripts/research/nadi_seconds_run.py` 写出。预登记提交 `57480db324f1602cfc422ff8c774d0d6e2113af6` 在第一次 v5 计分之前。两次复跑的字节核对写在进度记录里。 +- 防复发：再提秒级或纳迪校准时，先复跑这份预登记；不得用看过结果之后新加的规则判过门；不得重调 BUG-1091 已关闭的权重。 +- 相关记录：BUG-560、BUG-1090、BUG-1091、BUG-1105、BUG-1141。 - 复发自：无 - 修复版本：研究分支 `codex/rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005`（未推送、未部署） diff --git a/docs/research/ACTIVE_FRONTS.md b/docs/research/ACTIVE_FRONTS.md index 3976e443..b57629aa 100644 --- a/docs/research/ACTIVE_FRONTS.md +++ b/docs/research/ACTIVE_FRONTS.md @@ -131,3 +131,4 @@ Do not open new product surfaces before at least one of these four lanes is clos - 2026-09-29 起评价集换 **v5**（77 例公开 AA，`references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v5.json`）：协议 `holdout_v5_protocol_2026_09_29.md`、构建与基线成绩单 `holdout_v5_build_2026_09_29.md`。后续打分判定以 v5 为准，v4 数字只作历史对照。 - 2026-09-30 盘型口径研究（BUG-1105）：`/docs/research/rectification_varga_resolution_2026_09_30.md`——目标从分钟改为分盘上升段。v5 六题后 ±10 D9 / D10 头段 = 真值 88% / 86%，占比 ≥ 0.6 留一法 92% / 90%；±30 约 1/4–1/3 用户可给可信分盘；±60 分盘 blocked。按段选题 ≤ ±30 有 +3～+7 例；提前停不过红线；「不用校正」只对只需 D1 的问题成立。**建议立实现单**（§7）。 - 2026-10-01 角度类时间技法研究（BUG-1141）：`/docs/research/rectification_angle_timing_2026_10_01.md`——行运压上升 / 天顶、次限推运角、太阳弧（1° ≈ 4 分钟），77 例 v5 真实日期对乱序日期 9 项预登记检验 0 项显著（最高胜过 58%，门槛 99.44%）；年龄结构保持对照同样无信号；`closed_by_design`。 +- 2026-10-05 纳迪秒级证伪（BUG-1240）：`/docs/research/rectification_nadi_seconds_2026_10_05.md`——第 4 / 第 5 层小运和等分 D150 对安慰剂日期，预先登记的 N1、N2、N3、N5 都不过门；换岁差时第 5 层和 D150 的变化超过 20%。`closed_by_design`。不立实现单，对外不说秒级。 diff --git a/docs/research/nadi_seconds_results_2026_10_05.json b/docs/research/nadi_seconds_results_2026_10_05.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..aba1b7d0 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/nadi_seconds_results_2026_10_05.json @@ -0,0 +1,13276 @@ +{ + "dataset_sha256": "ab365a3e3f4953d4b538f2c0889dc98ab89444a28340c3a7b29e2a864cdd687a", + "gates": { + "n1": false, + "n2": false, + "n3": false, + "n4_blocks_second_scale_wording": true, + "n5": false + }, + "library_sha256": "ba170f3a0476fc41b3be8ac9f035d2f82575006753eb14992ccf124132be0f94", + "limit": 0, + "n0": { + "audit": { + "cases": 77, + "day_event_total": 244, + "day_events_ge_3": 43, + "day_events_ge_4": 33, + "day_events_ge_5": 19, + "day_events_zero": 4, + "minute_histogram": { + "00": 14, + "05": 2, + "08": 1, + "09": 1, + "10": 2, + "12": 2, + "14": 1, + "15": 5, + "17": 2, + "19": 1, + "20": 3, + "21": 1, + "22": 1, + "24": 1, + "25": 2, + "26": 1, + "28": 2, + "30": 10, + "35": 6, + "36": 1, + "37": 1, + "38": 2, + "40": 1, + "42": 1, + "44": 1, + "45": 2, + "46": 1, + "47": 2, + "50": 3, + "54": 1, + "55": 2, + "56": 1 + }, + "rounded_5min_case_ids": [ + "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout", + "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout", + "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout", + "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout", + "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout", + "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout", + "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout", + "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout", + "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout", + "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout", + "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout", + "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout", + "adriana_lima_1981_aa_v5_holdout", + "albert_einstein_1879_aa_v5_holdout", + "alberto_fujimori_1938_aa_v5_holdout", + "arthur_conan_doyle_1859_aa_v5_holdout", + "audrey_hepburn_1929_aa_v5_holdout", + "ayrton_senna_1960_aa_v5_holdout", + "bob_dylan_1941_aa_v5_holdout", + "brigitte_bardot_1934_aa_v5_holdout", + "catherine_deneuve_1943_aa_v5_holdout", + "charles_de_gaulle_1890_aa_v5_holdout", + "cher_1946_aa_v5_holdout", + "clint_eastwood_1930_aa_v5_holdout", + "daniel_barenboim_1942_aa_v5_holdout", + "diane_cilento_1932_aa_v5_holdout", + "dingdong_dantes_1980_aa_v5_holdout", + "edith_piaf_1915_aa_v5_holdout", + "elvis_presley_1935_aa_v5_holdout", + "francois_hollande_1954_aa_v5_holdout", + "frida_kahlo_1907_aa_v5_holdout", + "gisele_bundchen_1980_aa_v5_holdout", + "gustavo_kuerten_1976_aa_v5_holdout", + "imelda_marcos_1929_aa_v5_holdout", + "janis_joplin_1943_aa_v5_holdout", + "jimi_hendrix_1942_aa_v5_holdout", + "judy_garland_1922_aa_v5_holdout", + "juscelino_kubitschek_1902_aa_v5_holdout", + "lionel_messi_1987_aa_v5_holdout", + "manuel_puig_1932_aa_v5_holdout", + "marilyn_monroe_1926_aa_v5_holdout", + "meryl_streep_1949_aa_v5_holdout", + "muhammad_ali_1942_aa_v5_holdout", + "nicolas_sarkozy_1955_aa_v5_holdout", + "pele_1940_aa_v5_holdout", + "rafael_nadal_1986_aa_v5_holdout", + "salvador_dali_1904_aa_v5_holdout", + "silvio_santos_1930_aa_v5_holdout", + "sophia_loren_1934_aa_v5_holdout", + "vincent_van_gogh_1853_aa_v5_holdout", + "whitney_houston_1963_aa_v5_holdout", + "zinedine_zidane_1972_aa_v5_holdout" + ], + "rounded_5min_count": 52, + "unrounded_case_ids": [ + "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout", + "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout", + "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout", + "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout", + "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout", + "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout", + "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout", + "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout", + "agatha_christie_1890_aa_v5_holdout", + "barbra_streisand_1942_aa_v5_holdout", + "beyonce_1981_aa_v5_holdout", + "bruce_lee_1940_aa_v5_holdout", + "donald_trump_1946_aa_v5_holdout", + "george_w_bush_1946_aa_v5_holdout", + "jennifer_aniston_1969_aa_v5_holdout", + "johnny_depp_1963_aa_v5_holdout", + "kamala_harris_1964_aa_v5_holdout", + "leonardo_dicaprio_1974_aa_v5_holdout", + "lou_diamond_phillips_1962_aa_v5_holdout", + "miley_cyrus_1992_aa_v5_holdout", + "piolo_pascual_1977_aa_v5_holdout", + "prince_1958_aa_v5_holdout", + "rudy_fernandez_1952_aa_v5_holdout", + "serena_williams_1981_aa_v5_holdout", + "venus_williams_1980_aa_v5_holdout" + ], + "unrounded_count": 25 + }, + "per_case_day_events": [ + { + "case_id": "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "minute": "00" + }, + { + "case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 4, + "minute": "30" + }, + { + "case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 6, + "minute": "09" + }, + { + "case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 5, + "minute": "24" + }, + { + "case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "minute": "15" + }, + { + "case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "minute": "20" + }, + { + "case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 2, + "minute": "38" + }, + { + "case_id": "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 4, + "minute": "30" + }, + { + "case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "minute": "00" + }, + { + "case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 2, + "minute": "56" + }, + { + "case_id": "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 3, + "minute": "42" + }, + { + "case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 5, + "minute": "38" + }, + { + "case_id": "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 3, + "minute": "15" + }, + { + "case_id": "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 5, + "minute": "37" + }, + { + "case_id": "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 3, + "minute": "40" + }, + { + "case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 3, + "minute": "00" + }, + { + "case_id": "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 2, + "minute": "30" + }, + { + "case_id": "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 2, + "minute": "21" + }, + { + "case_id": "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 5, + "minute": "50" + }, + { + "case_id": "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "minute": "25" + }, + { + "case_id": "adriana_lima_1981_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "minute": "50" + }, + { + "case_id": "agatha_christie_1890_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 3, + "minute": "14" + }, + { + "case_id": "albert_einstein_1879_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 3, + "minute": "30" + }, + { + "case_id": "alberto_fujimori_1938_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "minute": "20" + }, + { + "case_id": "arthur_conan_doyle_1859_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 2, + "minute": "55" + }, + { + "case_id": "audrey_hepburn_1929_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 2, + "minute": "00" + }, + { + "case_id": "ayrton_senna_1960_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "minute": "35" + }, + { + "case_id": "barbra_streisand_1942_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 4, + "minute": "08" + }, + { + "case_id": "beyonce_1981_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 4, + "minute": "47" + }, + { + "case_id": "bob_dylan_1941_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 7, + "minute": "05" + }, + { + "case_id": "brigitte_bardot_1934_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 6, + "minute": "15" + }, + { + "case_id": "bruce_lee_1940_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "minute": "12" + }, + { + "case_id": "catherine_deneuve_1943_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 2, + "minute": "35" + }, + { + "case_id": "charles_de_gaulle_1890_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 6, + "minute": "00" + }, + { + "case_id": "cher_1946_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 4, + "minute": "25" + }, + { + "case_id": "clint_eastwood_1930_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "minute": "35" + }, + { + "case_id": "daniel_barenboim_1942_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 4, + "minute": "35" + }, + { + "case_id": "diane_cilento_1932_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "minute": "30" + }, + { + "case_id": "dingdong_dantes_1980_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 6, + "minute": "50" + }, + { + "case_id": "donald_trump_1946_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 0, + "minute": "54" + }, + { + "case_id": "edith_piaf_1915_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 3, + "minute": "00" + }, + { + "case_id": "elvis_presley_1935_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 7, + "minute": "35" + }, + { + "case_id": "francois_hollande_1954_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 4, + "minute": "10" + }, + { + "case_id": "frida_kahlo_1907_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 4, + "minute": "30" + }, + { + "case_id": "george_w_bush_1946_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 2, + "minute": "26" + }, + { + "case_id": "gisele_bundchen_1980_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 3, + "minute": "00" + }, + { + "case_id": "gustavo_kuerten_1976_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 0, + "minute": "30" + }, + { + "case_id": "imelda_marcos_1929_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 5, + "minute": "30" + }, + { + "case_id": "janis_joplin_1943_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 5, + "minute": "45" + }, + { + "case_id": "jennifer_aniston_1969_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 3, + "minute": "22" + }, + { + "case_id": "jimi_hendrix_1942_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 6, + "minute": "15" + }, + { + "case_id": "johnny_depp_1963_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "minute": "44" + }, + { + "case_id": "judy_garland_1922_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 8, + 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0.0, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "time:-30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.833333 + }, + "time:-60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.166667, + "level5": 0.666667 + }, + "time:30": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.166667, + "level5": 0.833333 + }, + "time:60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.333333, + "level5": 0.833333 + } + } + }, + { + "case_id": "rudy_fernandez_1952_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 2, + "perturbations": { + "ayanamsa:kp": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:lahiri": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:true_citra": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "east_km:-10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "east_km:10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "node:true": { + "asc_changed": false, + "level5": 0.0, + "moon_changed": false, + "rahu_changed": true + }, + "time:-15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "time:-30": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:-60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:15": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "time:30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 0.5 + } + } + }, + { + "case_id": "salvador_dali_1904_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 4, + "perturbations": { + "ayanamsa:kp": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:lahiri": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:true_citra": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "east_km:-10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "east_km:10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "node:true": { + "asc_changed": false, + "level5": 0.0, + "moon_changed": false, + "rahu_changed": true + }, + "time:-15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.25, + "level5": 0.75 + }, + "time:-30": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.25, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:-60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:15": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.25, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 0.75 + } + } + }, + { + "case_id": "serena_williams_1981_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "perturbations": { + "ayanamsa:kp": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:lahiri": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:true_citra": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "east_km:-10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "east_km:10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "node:true": { + "asc_changed": false, + "level5": 0.0, + "moon_changed": false, + "rahu_changed": true + }, + "time:-15": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:-30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:-60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "time:30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "time:60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + } + } + }, + { + "case_id": "silvio_santos_1930_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 2, + "perturbations": { + "ayanamsa:kp": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:lahiri": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:true_citra": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "east_km:-10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "east_km:10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "node:true": { + "asc_changed": false, + "level5": 0.0, + "moon_changed": false, + "rahu_changed": true + }, + "time:-15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "time:-30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "time:-60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "time:30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 1.0 + } + } + }, + { + "case_id": "sophia_loren_1934_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 6, + "perturbations": { + "ayanamsa:kp": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:lahiri": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 0.833333 + }, + "ayanamsa:true_citra": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.833333, + "level5": 0.833333 + }, + "east_km:-10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "east_km:10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "node:true": { + "asc_changed": false, + "level5": 0.0, + "moon_changed": false, + "rahu_changed": true + }, + "time:-15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "time:-30": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "time:-60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.166667, + "level5": 0.833333 + }, + "time:15": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.333333 + }, + "time:30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.666667 + }, + "time:60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.833333 + } + } + }, + { + "case_id": "venus_williams_1980_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 1, + "perturbations": { + "ayanamsa:kp": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:lahiri": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:true_citra": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "east_km:-10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "east_km:10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "node:true": { + "asc_changed": false, + "level5": 0.0, + "moon_changed": false, + "rahu_changed": true + }, + "time:-15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "time:-30": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "time:-60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "time:15": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "time:30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "time:60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 1.0 + } + } + }, + { + "case_id": "vincent_van_gogh_1853_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 2, + "perturbations": { + "ayanamsa:kp": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:lahiri": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:true_citra": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "east_km:-10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "east_km:10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "node:true": { + "asc_changed": false, + "level5": 0.0, + "moon_changed": false, + "rahu_changed": true + }, + "time:-15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "time:-30": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "time:-60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "time:30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + } + } + }, + { + "case_id": "whitney_houston_1963_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 4, + "perturbations": { + "ayanamsa:kp": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:lahiri": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 0.75 + }, + "ayanamsa:true_citra": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.75, + "level5": 0.75 + }, + "east_km:-10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "east_km:10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "node:true": { + "asc_changed": false, + "level5": 0.0, + "moon_changed": false, + "rahu_changed": true + }, + "time:-15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.25, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "time:-30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.25, + "level5": 0.75 + }, + "time:-60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:15": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "time:30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 1.0 + } + } + }, + { + "case_id": "zinedine_zidane_1972_aa_v5_holdout", + "day_events": 4, + "perturbations": { + "ayanamsa:kp": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.75, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "ayanamsa:lahiri": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 1.0, + "level5": 0.5 + }, + "ayanamsa:true_citra": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.75, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "east_km:-10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "east_km:10": { + "blocked": false, + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.0 + }, + "node:true": { + "asc_changed": false, + "level5": 0.0, + "moon_changed": false, + "rahu_changed": true + }, + "time:-15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.25, + "level5": 0.75 + }, + "time:-30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.25, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:-60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.5, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:15": { + "d150_changed": false, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 0.75 + }, + "time:30": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.0, + "level5": 1.0 + }, + "time:60": { + "d150_changed": true, + "level4": 0.25, + "level5": 1.0 + } + } + } + ], + "longitude_km": { + "-10": { + "case_rate": 0.589041, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.589041, + "event_rate": 0.0 + }, + "10": { + "case_rate": 0.630137, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.630137, + "event_rate": 0.0 + } + }, + "longitude_km_d150": { + "-10": 0.589041, + "10": 0.630137 + }, + "node_mean_to_true": { + "asc_changed_cases": 0, + "level5_event_rate": 0.0, + "moon_changed_cases": 0, + "rahu_changed_cases": 73 + }, + "time": { + "-15": { + "case_rate": 0.164384, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.164384, + "event_rate": 0.606557 + }, + "-30": { + "case_rate": 0.589041, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.589041, + "event_rate": 0.819672 + }, + "-60": { + "case_rate": 0.958904, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.958904, + "event_rate": 0.918033 + }, + "15": { + "case_rate": 0.39726, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.39726, + "event_rate": 0.598361 + }, + "30": { + "case_rate": 0.657534, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.657534, + "event_rate": 0.827869 + }, + "60": { + "case_rate": 0.986301, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.986301, + "event_rate": 0.901639 + } + }, + "time_level4": { + "-15": { + "case_rate": null, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.164384, + "event_rate": 0.106557 + }, + "-30": { + "case_rate": null, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.589041, + "event_rate": 0.213115 + }, + "-60": { + "case_rate": null, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.958904, + "event_rate": 0.418033 + }, + "15": { + "case_rate": null, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.39726, + "event_rate": 0.114754 + }, + "30": { + "case_rate": null, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.657534, + "event_rate": 0.213115 + }, + "60": { + "case_rate": null, + "cases": 73, + "d150_case_rate": 0.986301, + "event_rate": 0.393443 + } + }, + "wording_ban_second_scale": true + }, + "n5": { + "classical_index_status": "variant_unverified", + "comparisons": { + "N5A": { + "P1": { + "extreme": 9999, + "fraction_grid_explains_all_mean": 0.031362, + "mean": 0.0, + "n": 43, + "p": 1.0, + "pass": false, + "permutations": 9999, + "placebo_mean": 0.272425, + "truth_mean": 0.272425, + "window_mean": 0.279983 + }, + "P2": { + "extreme": 9999, + "fraction_grid_explains_all_mean": 0.031362, + "mean": 0.0, + "n": 43, + "p": 1.0, + "pass": false, + "permutations": 9999, + "placebo_mean": 0.272425, + "truth_mean": 0.272425, + "window_mean": 0.279983 + } + }, + "N5B": { + "P1": { + "extreme": 2223, + "fraction_grid_explains_all_mean": 0.085689, + "mean": 0.024741, + "n": 43, + "p": 0.2224, + "pass": false, + "permutations": 9999, + "placebo_mean": 0.451334, + "truth_mean": 0.476075, + "window_mean": 0.45934 + }, + "P2": { + "extreme": 6410, + "fraction_grid_explains_all_mean": 0.085689, + "mean": -0.013621, + "n": 43, + "p": 0.6411, + "pass": false, + "permutations": 9999, + "placebo_mean": 0.489696, + "truth_mean": 0.476075, + "window_mean": 0.45934 + } + } + }, + "named_text": "blocked", + "named_text_reason": "no legal Chandra Kala Nadi source in the repository", + "pass": false + }, + "prereg_sha256": "dc012dd2b287b28ac2eefb75d5b9050e7788cb09d0064639878a37753ee8c2d3", + "runner_sha256": "3c1af919408c637eead6e43252f6696beec73cb66480d8138a9075d3a8fb8ed6", + "swisseph": "2.10.03" +} diff --git a/docs/research/rectification_nadi_seconds_2026_10_05.md b/docs/research/rectification_nadi_seconds_2026_10_05.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..26abc5ca --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/rectification_nadi_seconds_2026_10_05.md @@ -0,0 +1,123 @@ +# 生时校正「纳迪秒级」证伪（2026-10-05，BUG-1240） + +> 任务书 `docs/tasks/TASK-rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005.md`。离线研究，生产代码没有改。 +> 数据：`references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v5.json`（77 例公开 Rodden AA，244 件日精度事件）。默认岁差 Raman、交点 mean。 +> 规则在跑数之前单独提交：`57480db324f1602cfc422ff8c774d0d6e2113af6`。文件 `docs/research/nadi_seconds_preregistration_2026_10_05.json`。 +> 结果：`docs/research/nadi_seconds_results_2026_10_05.json`。Swiss Ephemeris 2.10.03。`PYTHONHASHSEED=0`。看过结果之后没有改规则、阈值或种子。 + +## 1. 结论 + +| 项 | 过门 | 关键数字 | 对照 | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| N1 拟合率 | 否 | 6 项里 1 项达到门槛：第 4 层对「日期平移」高 0.090，p = 0.0116。另外 5 项没有 | 日期平移，以及把日期换到别的例子上 | +| N2 留出一件 | 否 | 33 例。留出事件比随机秒高 0.041，95% 区间 −0.021 到 0.101 | 随机秒。安慰剂日期的区间也跨过 0 | +| N3 找回记录分钟 | 否 | ±10：纳迪 5/77，同一次回放的生产头名 25/77，提升 −0.260，区间整个在 0 下面 | 真值仍在交付区间内 76/77 | +| N4 噪声地板 | 触发文案禁令 | 只换岁差，第 5 层有 86%–92% 的日事件换主星，等分 D150 有 73/73 例换段 | 时间和地点写入下表，不单独当方法门 | +| N5 D150 结构 | 否 | 4 项都不达到门槛。按描述文字比对经历：blocked，仓库里没有可合法使用的原文 | 同 N1 的两种安慰剂 | + +不立实现单。第 4 层、第 5 层和 D150 不接进校正计分。BUG-1240 记为 `closed_by_design`。 + +对外不能说秒级。N1–N3 没有过门，而且 N4 已经越过预先登记的 20% 线：换一种岁差算法，秒级记号就大面积变掉。 + +## 2. N0 底座 + +五层小运走生产递归（大运时间轴后再切四次），前三层与主链逐事件对账。77 例、964 件事件，不一致 0。等分 D150 用 `calc_custom_varga`（N=150）。古典「动宫顺排、固宫逆排、变宫从中段起排」标成 `variant_unverified`，不参与过门。 + +记录分钟：52 例是 5 的倍数，25 例不是。日精度事件 244 件；不少于 3 件的 43 例，不少于 4 件的 33 例，不少于 5 件的 19 例，0 件的 4 例。记录里没有秒。真值分钟的拟合率是该分钟 0–59 秒的平均。非 5 倍数那一组仍然只知道分钟，不知道秒。 + +## 3. N1 + +样本是预先登记的 43 例，两种安慰剂都在。拟合率是「这一秒解释了多少件日精度事件」除以事件数。差是真值分钟的平均减去安慰剂日期在同样 60 秒上的平均。整例符号翻转 9999 次。过门要均值大于 0，并且精确 p < 0.05。六项都要达到。 + +| 规则 | 对照 | 真值分钟 | 安慰剂 | 差 | 窗口平均 | p | 过门 | +| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | +| 第 4 层属于目标宫主 | 日期平移 | 0.259 | 0.169 | +0.090 | 0.214 | 0.0116 | 达到 | +| 第 4 层属于目标宫主 | 跨例换日期 | 0.259 | 0.221 | +0.038 | 0.214 | 0.1476 | 否 | +| 第 5 层属于目标宫主 | 日期平移 | 0.221 | 0.216 | +0.005 | 0.229 | 0.3794 | 否 | +| 第 5 层属于目标宫主 | 跨例换日期 | 0.221 | 0.225 | −0.003 | 0.229 | 0.5526 | 否 | +| 五层里至少两层命中 | 日期平移 | 0.329 | 0.339 | −0.009 | 0.325 | 0.6338 | 否 | +| 五层里至少两层命中 | 跨例换日期 | 0.329 | 0.318 | +0.012 | 0.325 | 0.3485 | 否 | + +第 5 层在真值分钟上的拟合率（0.221）低于 ±10 分钟粗网格的平均（0.229）。记录中的那一分钟，并不比窗口里随便一秒更常被第 5 层解释。 + +粗网格上能解释全部日精度事件的秒所占比例：第 4 层 0.0017，第 5 层 0.0047，至少一层 0.145，至少两层 0.011。严格规则并不是「几乎每一秒都能解释全部前事」。失败的原因是真值分钟并不比安慰剂更高。 + +43 例里，分钟为 5 的倍数的有 31 例，其余 12 例。这是描述，没有单独做检验，也不能拿来过门。第 5 层真值分钟拟合率：5 的倍数 0.240，其余 0.171。其余那 12 例的真值分钟（0.171）低于它自己的窗口平均（0.199）。 + +探索项 B3 / B4 / B5 不参与过门，数字在结果 JSON 的每例记录里。 + +## 4. N2 + +33 例、每例至少 4 件日精度事件。留一件，用其余事件在粗网格上取最高分，并列全留。再看被留出的那一件在这些秒上被第 5 层解释的比例，减去同样多的随机秒。 + +相对随机秒：平均高 0.041，95% 区间 −0.021 到 0.101。相对安慰剂日期：平均高 0.026，区间 −0.037 到 0.087。过门只看随机秒，区间下界要大于 0。没有达到。 + +5 的倍数 24 例，差的平均 0.047；其余 9 例，差的平均 0.024。两组都没有单独过门。 + +## 5. N3 + +命中的定义预先写死：并列第一的每一个偏移都要落在限制里。空并列算未命中。没有日精度事件的 4 例算未命中。 + +### 单独用第 5 层排序（不参与过门） + +±10 分钟、每 5 秒一格。全部并列都落在记录时间 60 秒内：0/77。落在 120 秒内：2/77（0.026），其中 5 的倍数那组 0.038，另一组 0。同一网格上均匀抽一格，60 秒内的期望是 0.104，120 秒内是 0.203。已发表的引擎先验头名是 0.18。并列数的中位是 8；有 23 例超过 25 个并列，这已经塞不进 60 秒那一段。 + +### 六题之后的交付区间里再排序（过门） + +沿用六题回放的前半段：六道选择题，不注入后面的引导窗口。区间内按 1 秒用第 5 层重排。回放 77 例没有报错。 + +| 半径 | 真值在区间内 | 生产：全部并列都在 1 分钟内 | 纳迪：全部并列都在 60 秒内 | 提升 | 95% 区间 | 宽度中位 | +| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | ---: | +| ±10（过门） | 76/77 | 25/77（0.325） | 5/77（0.065） | −0.260 | −0.377 到 −0.143 | 13 分钟 | +| ±30（只报告） | 76/77 | 24/77（0.312） | 0/77 | −0.312 | −0.416 到 −0.208 | 33 分钟 | +| ±60（只报告） | 76/77 | 13/77（0.169） | 0/77 | −0.169 | −0.260 到 −0.091 | 69 分钟 | + +±10 上，5 的倍数那组：生产 0.288，纳迪 0.058。另一组：生产 0.400，纳迪 0.080。两组都是纳迪更低。 + +已发表的 ±10 成绩单是：引擎先验头名 0.18，六题回放头名 0.64，簇头名 0.68，真值在区间内 76/77，宽度中位 15 分钟（`docs/research/holdout_v5_build_2026_09_29.md`）。本轮真值覆盖同为 76/77。头名没有复现成 0.64。本轮的生产对照要求每一个并列分钟都在 1 分钟内；线上网格每 2 分钟一格，这等于「唯一头名就是记录的那一分钟」，得到 25/77。已发表的 0.64 是簇代表分钟的头名。宽度中位是 13 分钟，已发表是 15。按预登记，不把 25/77 改写成 0.64。过门比较的是同一次回放里的纳迪和生产，纳迪更低。 + +## 6. N4 噪声地板 + +73 例至少有一件日精度事件。第 4、第 5 层按事件加权。等分 D150 按例子计。没有日事件的 4 例不在这张表里。 + +| 扰动 | 第 4 层事件变化 | 第 5 层事件变化 | 等分 D150 换段的例子 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| Raman → Lahiri | 0.873 | 0.857 | 73/73 | +| Raman → KP | 0.848 | 0.922 | 73/73 | +| Raman → True Chitra | 0.926 | 0.885 | 73/73 | +| 出生时间 −15 秒 / +15 秒 | 0.107 / 0.115 | 0.607 / 0.598 | 12/73 / 29/73 | +| 出生时间 −30 秒 / +30 秒 | 0.213 / 0.213 | 0.820 / 0.828 | 43/73 / 48/73 | +| 出生时间 −60 秒 / +60 秒 | 0.418 / 0.393 | 0.918 / 0.902 | 70/73 / 72/73 | +| 出生地向东 / 向西 10 公里 | 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 | 46/73 / 43/73 | + +交点从 mean 改成 true：73 例的月亮和上升都没变，罗睺都变了，第 5 层事件变化率是 0。小运只看月亮，这与预期一致。 + +文案禁令看三次换岁差。三次的第 5 层事件变化率都大于 0.20，等分 D150 的例子变化率都是 1。禁令成立。±15 秒已经让大约六成日事件换掉第 5 层主星。东西方向移 10 公里不动第 5 层，但大约六成例子的等分 D150 会换段。 + +## 7. N5 + +等分 D150 的上升星座宫主。样本仍是 43 例，对照仍是两种安慰剂。 + +| 规则 | 对照 | 真值分钟 | 安慰剂 | 差 | p | 过门 | +| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | +| 宫主属于目标宫主 | 日期平移 | 0.272 | 0.272 | 0 | 1 | 否 | +| 宫主属于目标宫主 | 跨例换日期 | 0.272 | 0.272 | 0 | 1 | 否 | +| 宫主出现在五层小运里 | 日期平移 | 0.476 | 0.451 | +0.025 | 0.2224 | 否 | +| 宫主出现在五层小运里 | 跨例换日期 | 0.476 | 0.490 | −0.014 | 0.6411 | 否 | + +第一条规则只用出生那一秒的盘，不用事件日期，所以两种改日期的安慰剂和真值相同。这是这条规则的结果，不是跑数之后改出来的。按描述文字比对经历保持 blocked。 + +## 8. 对外口径草稿 + +校正给你一个时间范围。你答完现在这几道题，范围里往往还剩大约一刻钟；你记得的那一分钟大多还在这个范围里，这些分钟分不出先后。我们拿时间记录到分钟的公开例子核对过：用更细的小运去挑秒，并不比把事情的日期挪开更准，也没有把范围收到你记录中的那一分钟。出生时间差半分钟，或者换一种岁差算法，这种细记号就会变。所以校正只说到现在的方法能分开的范围，不把结果说成秒级。 + +草稿对照 `frontend/docs/VOICE.md`：直接对「你」说，不点名其他产品，不写秒级准确率。没有改 VOICE 文件本身。 + +## 9. 复现 + +```bash +export PYTHONHASHSEED=0 +python scripts/research/nadi_seconds_run.py +``` + +预登记、库、跑数脚本、数据集的 sha256 写在结果 JSON 开头和结尾。本轮分别是 `dc012dd2b287b28ac2eefb75d5b9050e7788cb09d0064639878a37753ee8c2d3`、`ba170f3a0476fc41b3be8ac9f035d2f82575006753eb14992ccf124132be0f94`、`3c1af919408c637eead6e43252f6696beec73cb66480d8138a9075d3a8fb8ed6`、`ab365a3e3f4953d4b538f2c0889dc98ab89444a28340c3a7b29e2a864cdd687a`。同一命令再跑一次，两份结果的 SHA-256 都是 `4f1569c3e8794e0d2c35d244d32b3896e47cf8a1f7d03d16ce01d3f07b51ec69`，逐字节一致。 diff --git a/docs/tasks/PROGRESS-rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005.md b/docs/tasks/PROGRESS-rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..96c7149e --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/tasks/PROGRESS-rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005.md @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +# PROGRESS · 生时校正「纳迪秒级」证伪（2026-10-05，BUG-1240） + +任务书：`TASK-rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005.md`。分支 `codex/rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005`，基线 `origin/staging` @ `4c64733f`。只 commit，不 push。未部署。 + +## 一句话 + +第 4 层、第 5 层和等分 D150 没有胜过预先登记的安慰剂，也没有在六题后的区间里把记录分钟找得更准。换岁差时细记号大面积变化。BUG-1240 `closed_by_design`。不立实现单。 + +## 提交 + +| 提交 | 内容 | +| --- | --- | +| `217cd4a7` | N0 库、跑数脚本、对账测试、BUG-1240 先记为 investigating、状态板改为执行中 | +| `6d51c2de` | 库自己把 `scripts/` 放进导入路径。直接跑脚本时否则找不到星历模块。没有改统计量 | +| `57480db3` | 预登记 JSON，单独提交，在第一次 v5 计分之前 | +| 本提交 | 结果 JSON、研究报告、ACTIVE_FRONTS、BUG 终态、状态板改为待验收、本进度 | + +预登记全文 SHA-256：`dc012dd2b287b28ac2eefb75d5b9050e7788cb09d0064639878a37753ee8c2d3`。 + +## 硬红线 + +| 要求 | 结果 | +| --- | --- | +| 规则先登记再跑 | 预登记 `57480db3` 早于结果。看过数字之后没有改规则、阈值或种子。事后列为空 | +| 排序程序不读 `true_minute` | 测试扫描拟合函数源码，并用会拒绝这个键的字典做了运行检查 | +| 每个「对上了」都有安慰剂 | N1 六项、N2、N5 四项都写了安慰剂。N3 的对照是同一次六题回放的生产头名 | +| 负结果照写 | 六项里只有第 4 层对日期平移达到 p < 0.05。没有改成只保留这一项 | +| 取整组和非取整组分开 | 写在研究报告 §3–§5。过门用合并样本 | +| 生产代码零改动 | 改动在 `scripts/research/`、`tests/test_nadi_seconds_research.py` 和 `docs/` | +| 不重调 BUG-1091 的权重 | 没有改 `DOMAIN_CONFIG`、计分权重或宫位映射 | +| 不抄纳迪原文 | N5 的文字比对写 blocked | +| 两次复跑逐字节一致 | 见下方「复跑」 | +| 隐私 | 文档和 BUG 不写出生时间。案例编号只留在结果 JSON，与既有公开评价集相同 | + +## 复跑 + +两次全量都用 `PYTHONHASHSEED=0`，半径 ±10 / ±30 / ±60。第一次写出 `docs/research/nadi_seconds_results_2026_10_05.json`（356,824 字节）。第二次写到临时文件。SHA-256 都是 `4f1569c3e8794e0d2c35d244d32b3896e47cf8a1f7d03d16ce01d3f07b51ec69`，逐字节一致。 + +## 测试 + +`tests/test_nadi_seconds_research.py` 与开工时那五个文件一起再跑，退出码 0。新测试 10 项通过，前三层对账 0 差，覆盖 77 例 964 件事件。新测试没有加进快速门的固定名单。 + +Python 快速门用 `--profile quick --skip-frontend-runtime`。这个工作树没有 `frontend/node_modules`，本单也不改前端，所以没有跑 npm，也没有安装依赖。编译、JSON、能力清单和片段审计都通过。pytest 是 1056 passed、1 skipped、1 failed，约 604 秒。失败的是 `tests/test_consultation_native_layers.py::test_the_new_layer_leaves_every_existing_output_unchanged`。同一条单独再跑通过。它不在本单改过的文件里，快速门的固定名单也不包含新的纳迪测试。不把它算成本研究的回归。 + +## 让步 + +N0、N1、N2、N3、N4、N5 都做了。N3 的 ±30 / ±60 只报告。N6 没有另做图。 diff --git a/docs/tasks/README.md b/docs/tasks/README.md index e2ad943b..c0abfd7a 100644 --- a/docs/tasks/README.md +++ b/docs/tasks/README.md @@ -422,4 +422,4 @@ | `TASK-astrologer-rulings-batch6-20261004.md` | `PROGRESS-astrologer-rulings-batch6-20261004.md` | 第七轮裁定（共享仓书面回复，产品采用；问 1 选 A）：Rath 版双主星按 p.43 (a)–(e)（BUG-1227 解除 blocked，推翻第五批红线 2 的 Table 17 年数底线）；第 5 级宫主度数只倒算计都（p.71 脚注 42）；罗计旺陷 ±1 年；同宫两主比经度；BUG 从 1228 起 | 待验收 | 分支 `codex/astrologer-rulings-batch6-20261004`（BUG-1227～1229；校正分数文件未改、未升版本） | | `TASK-gate-log-volume-20261004.md` | `PROGRESS-gate-log-volume-20261004.md` | 门禁 validate 单步日志 4.4 万行 / 2 MB 网页打不开（run 3170）：快速门只打摘要（失败给末 200 行 + 日志文件）、前端测试门禁上 dot + 失败汇总（本机仍 TAP）、拆分 validate 为 7 个 step（产品授权改 workflow，只限拆分与重定向）；检查一项不少 | **已实现待验收**（BUG-1230；未推送、未部署；Gitea 各 step 页面是否打得开留待推送后由产品确认） | 分支 `codex/gate-log-volume-20261004` | | `TASK-consult-latency-quickwins-20261005.md` | `PROGRESS-consult-latency-quickwins-20261005.md` | 普通对话耗时两项快修：咨询链校正闸不再同步白等 VedAstro 官方快照子进程（每域约 4 s，复用顶层缓存 + 负缓存，不推翻 BUG-301）；补分段计时（第 0/1 步耗时、推理 token、分类耗时进日志与 usage）。推理强度/精简说明待模型 key 另单（BUG-1231、BUG-1232） | 已验收（Claude 10-05 Linux：Python 62 / 前端 24 失败与基线逐名相同，Static、gzip 0%；装 SDK 实测每领域 4.47→1.66 s，剩余 1.33 s 是保留的顶层前台等待；/admin/usage 真机欠） | 分支 `codex/consult-latency-quickwins-20261005` | -| `TASK-rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005.md` | `PROGRESS-rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005.md` | **「纳迪秒级校准」可证伪检验（离线）**：竞品宣传「问前事到天 → 秒级」。本仓主链只用三层小运，Sookshma / Prana 与 D150 从未进评价集；v5 真值 52/77 是整 5 分钟（秒级无真值可对）。N0 五层小运 + D150 底座（前三层与主链对账 0 差）、N1 拟合率 vs 安慰剂日期（核心）、N2 留一件预测、N3 六题后区间内再细分能否提头名、N4 岁差 / 坐标 / 时间扰动的噪声地板、N5 D150 结构层（原文比对 blocked）、N6 结论 + 对外口径草稿。规则先登记再跑；不改生产代码；不得重调 BUG-1091 已关的权重 | 执行中 | 分支 `codex/rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005`（BUG-1240；未推送、未部署） | +| `TASK-rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005.md` | `PROGRESS-rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005.md` | **「纳迪秒级校准」可证伪检验（离线）**：竞品宣传「问前事到天 → 秒级」。本仓主链只用三层小运，Sookshma / Prana 与 D150 从未进评价集；v5 真值 52/77 是整 5 分钟（秒级无真值可对）。N0 五层小运 + D150 底座（前三层与主链对账 0 差）、N1 拟合率 vs 安慰剂日期（核心）、N2 留一件预测、N3 六题后区间内再细分能否提头名、N4 岁差 / 坐标 / 时间扰动的噪声地板、N5 D150 结构层（原文比对 blocked）、N6 结论 + 对外口径草稿。规则先登记再跑；不改生产代码；不得重调 BUG-1091 已关的权重 | 待验收 | 分支 `codex/rectification-nadi-seconds-research-20261005`（BUG-1240 `closed_by_design`；未推送、未部署） 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