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feat: complete verifiable birth-time rectification flow

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Jesse_Chen
2026-07-21 22:16:18 +08:00
parent eb8ed8bee4
commit bfc6870614
117 changed files with 6215 additions and 1038 deletions
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references/oracle/jyotishganit_field_probe_steve_jobs_2026_07_19.json
+6 -2
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@@ -1,6 +1,10 @@
{
"boundary": "Raw/hash observation only. Missing Shadbala field or matching signs do not prove formula truth or production timing readiness.",
"claim_status": "observation_only",
"boundary": "Invalidated because the San Francisco label and stored coordinates do not describe the same canonical public-case input.",
"claim_status": "invalidated_input_mismatch",
"invalidation": {
"reason": "location_label_coordinate_mismatch",
"replacement_status": "blocked_until_probe_is_rerun_with_37.7749_-122.4194"
},
"coverage": {
"BAV_SAV": true,
"D10": true,
references/oracle/jyotishganit_shadbala_surface_probe_steve_jobs_2026_07_19.json
+10 -3
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@@ -11,8 +11,15 @@
"Drikbala"
]
},
"boundary": "jyotishganit exposes Shadbala via object surface, not top-level to_dict. Observation-only until component units and external worked examples are compared.",
"claim_status": "observation_only",
"boundary": "Invalidated: the artifact label says San Francisco but its coordinates do not match the canonical San Francisco public-case input. These values cannot be used for parity or tuning and must be regenerated.",
"claim_status": "invalidated_input_mismatch",
"invalidation": {
"reason": "location_label_coordinate_mismatch",
"recorded_location": "San Francisco, CA",
"recorded_coordinates": [37.3382, -122.0383],
"required_coordinates": [37.7749, -122.4194],
"replacement_status": "blocked_until_probe_is_rerun_with_corrected_input"
},
"coverage": {
"Jupiter": {
"Cheshtabala": true,
@@ -367,6 +374,6 @@
"raw_hash": "8748eb3c54481929a1d7232eb40032bd7c86e6e9e59a38193c233a35c18fb972",
"scope": "jyotishganit_shadbala_surface_probe",
"source_path": "references/open_source_sources/jyotishganit/jyotishganit/components/strengths.py",
"status": "complete",
"status": "invalidated",
"truth_matrix_allowed": false
}
references/oracle/jyotishganit_vs_local_field_comparison_steve_jobs_2026_07_19.json
+6 -2
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@@ -1,6 +1,10 @@
{
"boundary": "Sign-level comparison only. Mismatch rows require field-level formula/ayanamsa/node/rounding attribution; do not majority-vote truth.",
"claim_status": "observation_only",
"boundary": "Invalidated because both engines were compared under coordinates that do not match the San Francisco case label. Replay both engines with the canonical input before using these rows.",
"claim_status": "invalidated_input_mismatch",
"invalidation": {
"reason": "location_label_coordinate_mismatch",
"replacement_status": "blocked_until_both_engines_are_replayed_with_37.7749_-122.4194"
},
"comparison_hash": "76558f3067672a5fcaf8d587ae5f6957d1b6eedff066d3aa244ae76b15cbfbe0",
"coverage": {
"BAV_SAV_jyotishganit": true,
references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_development_v1.json
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@@ -0,0 +1,223 @@
{
"schema_version": "minute-rectification-development-v1",
"benchmark_id": "minute_rectification_development_v1",
"scope": "public_cases_for_tuning_and_diagnostics_only",
"minimum_case_contract": {
"events_per_case": 3,
"domains_per_case": 2,
"independent_event_sources_per_case": 2,
"negative_minutes_per_case": 4
},
"cases": [
{
"case_id": "steve_jobs_1955_development",
"subject_label": "Steve Jobs",
"development_partition": "tuning_and_diagnostics",
"allowed_for_tuning": true,
"excluded_from_holdout": true,
"candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
"false_minute_offsets": [-10, -5, -2, -1, 1, 2, 5, 10],
"birth": {
"date": "1955-02-24",
"time": "19:15",
"place": "San Francisco, California, United States",
"latitude": 37.7749,
"longitude": -122.4194,
"timezone_offset": -8.0,
"source": {
"publisher": "Astro-Databank",
"url": "https://www.astro.com/adbvip/adbvip_02_24.htm?lang=r&nho2=250&nhor=1",
"rodden_rating": "AA",
"record_type": "birth_record"
}
},
"events": [
{
"id": "jobs_apple_founding_1976",
"domain": "career",
"date": "1976-04-01",
"precision": "day",
"description": "Apple was founded.",
"source": {
"publisher": "Apple Newsroom",
"url": "https://www.apple.com/ca/newsroom/2026/03/apple-to-celebrate-50-years-of-thinking-different/",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
},
{
"id": "jobs_marriage_1991",
"domain": "relationship",
"date": "1991-03-18",
"precision": "day",
"description": "Married Laurene Powell.",
"source": {
"publisher": "Biography.com",
"url": "https://www.biography.com/business-leaders/steve-jobs",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
},
{
"id": "jobs_cancer_diagnosis_2003",
"domain": "health_pressure",
"date": "2003",
"precision": "year",
"description": "Diagnosed with a pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor.",
"source": {
"publisher": "Biography.com",
"url": "https://www.biography.com/business-leaders/steve-jobs",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
},
{
"id": "jobs_resigned_apple_ceo_2011",
"domain": "career",
"date": "2011-08-24",
"precision": "day",
"description": "Resigned as Apple CEO.",
"source": {
"publisher": "Apple Newsroom",
"url": "https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2011/08/24Letter-from-Steve-Jobs/",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
}
]
},
{
"case_id": "albert_einstein_1879_development",
"subject_label": "Albert Einstein",
"development_partition": "tuning_and_diagnostics",
"allowed_for_tuning": true,
"excluded_from_holdout": true,
"candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
"false_minute_offsets": [-10, -5, -2, -1, 1, 2, 5, 10],
"birth": {
"date": "1879-03-14",
"time": "11:30",
"place": "Ulm, Germany",
"latitude": 48.4011,
"longitude": 9.9876,
"timezone_offset": 0.66584,
"timezone_basis": "local_mean_time_from_longitude",
"source": {
"publisher": "Astro-Databank",
"url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Einstein%2C_Albert",
"rodden_rating": "AA",
"record_type": "birth_record"
}
},
"events": [
{
"id": "einstein_marriage_1903",
"domain": "relationship",
"date": "1903",
"precision": "year",
"description": "Married Mileva Maric.",
"source": {
"publisher": "Nobel Prize",
"url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1921/einstein/biographical/",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
},
{
"id": "einstein_nobel_award_1922",
"domain": "career",
"date": "1922",
"precision": "year",
"description": "Received the reserved 1921 Nobel Prize in Physics.",
"source": {
"publisher": "Nobel Prize",
"url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1921/einstein/questions-and-answers/",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
},
{
"id": "einstein_left_germany_1933",
"domain": "relocation",
"date": "1933",
"precision": "year",
"description": "Left Germany after the Nazi seizure of power.",
"source": {
"publisher": "Max Planck Society",
"url": "https://www.mpg.de/947161/1932-albert-einstein",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
}
]
},
{
"case_id": "marie_curie_1867_development",
"subject_label": "Marie Curie",
"development_partition": "tuning_and_diagnostics",
"allowed_for_tuning": true,
"excluded_from_holdout": true,
"candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
"false_minute_offsets": [-10, -5, -2, -1, 1, 2, 5, 10],
"birth": {
"date": "1867-11-07",
"time": "12:00",
"place": "Warsaw, Poland",
"latitude": 52.2297,
"longitude": 21.0122,
"timezone_offset": 1.400813,
"timezone_basis": "local_mean_time_from_longitude",
"source": {
"publisher": "Astro-Databank",
"url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Curie%2C_Marie",
"rodden_rating": "AA",
"record_type": "birth_record"
}
},
"events": [
{
"id": "curie_moved_to_paris_1891",
"domain": "relocation",
"date": "1891",
"precision": "year",
"description": "Moved to Paris to continue studies at the Sorbonne.",
"source": {
"publisher": "Nobel Prize",
"url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/1911/marie-curie/biographical/",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
},
{
"id": "curie_marriage_1895",
"domain": "relationship",
"date": "1895-07-26",
"precision": "day",
"description": "Married Pierre Curie.",
"source": {
"publisher": "French Ministry of Higher Education and Research",
"url": "https://www.enseignementsup-recherche.gouv.fr/fr/celebration-du-150e-anniversaire-de-la-naissance-de-marie-curie-49204",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
},
{
"id": "curie_nobel_physics_1903",
"domain": "career",
"date": "1903",
"precision": "year",
"description": "Received the Nobel Prize in Physics.",
"source": {
"publisher": "Nobel Prize",
"url": "https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1903/marie-curie/",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
},
{
"id": "curie_widowed_1906",
"domain": "health_pressure",
"date": "1906-04-19",
"precision": "day",
"description": "Pierre Curie died in a traffic accident.",
"source": {
"publisher": "Musee Curie",
"url": "https://curiotheque.musee.curie.fr/s/fr/page/dans-le-temps",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
}
]
}
],
"boundary": "These cases are visible development material. Their outcomes may improve diagnostics, but they are permanently excluded from public holdout metrics and cannot open the minute-confirmation gate."
}
references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_development_v1_report.json
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@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
{
"benchmark_id": "minute_rectification_development_v1",
"generated_on": "2026-07-21",
"scope": "minute_rectification_development_diagnostics",
"status": "p6_fact_contract_shadow_only",
"case_count": 3,
"cases": [
{
"case_id": "steve_jobs_1955_development",
"published_time": "19:15",
"v2": {"predicted_time": "19:23", "true_rank": 12, "minute_error": 8},
"v3": {"predicted_time": "19:24", "true_rank": 11, "minute_error": 9},
"unique_feature_fingerprint_count": 9,
"indistinguishable_adjacent_pair_count": 12,
"p6_fact_unique_feature_fingerprint_count": 9,
"p6_fact_indistinguishable_adjacent_pair_count": 12,
"production_confirmation_allowed": false
},
{
"case_id": "albert_einstein_1879_development",
"published_time": "11:30",
"v2": {"predicted_time": "11:39", "true_rank": 5, "minute_error": 9},
"v3": {"predicted_time": "11:39", "true_rank": 8, "minute_error": 9},
"unique_feature_fingerprint_count": 6,
"indistinguishable_adjacent_pair_count": 15,
"p6_fact_unique_feature_fingerprint_count": 8,
"p6_fact_indistinguishable_adjacent_pair_count": 13,
"production_confirmation_allowed": false
},
{
"case_id": "marie_curie_1867_development",
"published_time": "12:00",
"v2": {"predicted_time": "12:05", "true_rank": 8, "minute_error": 5},
"v3": {"predicted_time": "12:05", "true_rank": 8, "minute_error": 5},
"unique_feature_fingerprint_count": 6,
"indistinguishable_adjacent_pair_count": 15,
"p6_fact_unique_feature_fingerprint_count": 8,
"p6_fact_indistinguishable_adjacent_pair_count": 13,
"production_confirmation_allowed": false
}
],
"summary": {
"v2_mean_minute_error": 7.3333,
"v3_mean_minute_error": 7.6667,
"v3_improved_case_count": 0,
"v3_worsened_case_count": 1,
"v3_unchanged_case_count": 2,
"indistinguishable_adjacent_pair_count": 42,
"adjacent_pair_count": 60,
"indistinguishable_adjacent_pair_ratio": 0.7,
"p6_fact_indistinguishable_adjacent_pair_count": 38,
"p6_fact_indistinguishable_adjacent_pair_ratio": 0.6333,
"p6_fact_difference_opportunity_count": 11,
"p6_question_ready_opportunity_count": 9,
"p6_fact_atoms_may_affect_score": false,
"v3_shadow_only": true,
"v3_may_replace_production": false,
"decision": "reject_v3_production_promotion"
},
"finding": "Across three development-only AA cases, v3 improves no case and increases mean error from 7.3333 to 7.6667 minutes. The P6 fact contract preserves Dasha actor identity and exact D4/D9/D10 placement changes that generic rule labels discarded, reducing evidence-equivalent adjacent pairs from 42 to 38 of 60 and producing 11 fact-driven opportunities, 9 of which have 2-4 usable partitions. These facts remain shadow-only and cannot score or confirm a minute.",
"excluded_from_holdout": true,
"may_open_release_gate": false,
"boundary": "This development outcome may guide a future scorer version. It is permanently excluded from sealed holdout metrics."
}
references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v2.json
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{
"schema_version": "minute-rectification-holdout-v2",
"benchmark_id": "minute_rectification_holdout_v2",
"scope": "public_birth_minute_rectification",
"truth_hidden_from_ranker": true,
"frozen_before_replay": true,
"frozen_scoring": {
"algorithm_version": "birth-time-event-scoring-v2",
"implementation_sha256": "153fea0f69d47a241f6692325f254eca8833a8efd529f81493cdea6ee36528aa",
"files": [
"scripts/active_rectification_events.py",
"scripts/active_rectification_event_engine.py",
"scripts/domain_calculation_service.py",
"scripts/dasha_analyzer.py",
"scripts/narayana_dasha.py",
"scripts/varga.py",
"scripts/jaimini.py",
"scripts/ashtakavarga.py",
"scripts/shadbala.py"
],
"tie_breaker": "sha256(benchmark_id:case_id:candidate_time); published minute is never used"
},
"truth_policy": "Only independently published Rodden AA birth-minute records and independently sourced dated life events qualify.",
"negative_control_policy": "Every case includes blinded false-minute candidates on both sides of the published minute, including +/-1 and +/-2 minutes.",
"minimum_gate": {
"public_aa_cases": 20,
"events_per_case": 3,
"domains_per_case": 2,
"independent_event_sources_per_case": 2,
"negative_minutes_per_case": 4
},
"release_metrics": {
"top_1_rate_minimum": 0.6,
"top_3_rate_minimum": 0.85,
"mean_absolute_minute_error_maximum": 2.0,
"false_confirmation_rate_maximum": 0.05,
"correct_insufficient_evidence_rejection_rate_minimum": 0.9
},
"cases": [
{
"case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa",
"subject_label": "Barack Obama",
"holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
"excluded_from_tuning": true,
"candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
"false_minute_offsets": [-10, -5, -2, -1, 1, 2, 5, 10],
"birth": {
"date": "1961-08-04",
"time": "19:24",
"place": "Honolulu, Hawaii, United States",
"latitude": 21.3069,
"longitude": -157.8583,
"timezone_offset": -10.0,
"source": {
"publisher": "Astro-Databank",
"url": "https://www.astro.com/adbvip/adbvip_08_04.htm?lang=r&nho2=161&nhor=1",
"rodden_rating": "AA",
"record_type": "birth_record"
}
},
"events": [
{
"id": "obama_wedding_1992",
"domain": "relationship",
"date": "1992-10-03",
"precision": "day",
"description": "Married Michelle Robinson.",
"source": {
"publisher": "Obama Foundation",
"url": "https://obama.org/about/administration/chicago-where-it-began/",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
},
{
"id": "obama_illinois_senate_1996",
"domain": "career",
"date": "1996-11-05",
"precision": "day",
"description": "Elected to the Illinois State Senate.",
"source": {
"publisher": "Obama Foundation",
"url": "https://obama.org/about/administration/chicago-where-it-began/",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
},
{
"id": "obama_presidential_election_2008",
"domain": "career",
"date": "2008-11-04",
"precision": "day",
"description": "Elected President of the United States.",
"source": {
"publisher": "The White House (archived)",
"url": "https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/1600/presidents/barackobama/",
"independent_of_birth_source": true
}
}
]
}
],
"boundary": "One seeded case is protocol plumbing, not evidence of accuracy. Verified-minute claims remain blocked until at least 20 sealed public AA cases pass all frozen metrics without tuning on their outcomes."
}
references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v2_pilot_report.json
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{
"benchmark_id": "minute_rectification_holdout_v2",
"generated_on": "2026-07-21",
"scope": "minute_rectification_blind_holdout_pilot",
"status": "blocked",
"frozen_scoring": {
"algorithm_version": "birth-time-event-scoring-v2",
"implementation_sha256": "153fea0f69d47a241f6692325f254eca8833a8efd529f81493cdea6ee36528aa",
"implementation_hash_matches": true
},
"case_gate": {
"valid_public_aa_cases": 1,
"minimum_public_aa_cases": 20,
"passed": false
},
"metrics": {
"top_1_rate": 0.0,
"top_3_rate": 0.0,
"mean_absolute_minute_error": 9.0,
"false_confirmation_rate": 0.0,
"correct_insufficient_evidence_rejection_rate": 1.0,
"confirmation_coverage_rate": 0.0,
"metric_gates_passed": false
},
"trials": [
{
"case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa",
"candidate_count": 21,
"published_truth_revealed_after_ranking": "19:24",
"predicted_time": "19:33",
"true_rank": 11,
"minute_error": 9,
"would_confirm": false,
"false_confirmation": false,
"insufficient_evidence_rejected": true,
"full_trial_blockers": [
"neighbor_stability_not_passed",
"leave_one_event_out_not_passed",
"minute_holdout_not_ready"
]
}
],
"boundary": "This single public case is a pipeline pilot, not a calibration result. Its outcome must not be used to tune the frozen scorer. A scoring change requires a new benchmark version and a newly sealed evaluation set."
}
references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json
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{
"schema_version": "minute-rectification-holdout-v3",
"benchmark_id": "minute_rectification_fact_ranker_v4_holdout_v3",
"description": "Sealed public Rodden-AA minute holdout for the event-specific fact ranker v4.",
"truth_hidden_from_ranker": true,
"frozen_before_replay": true,
"source_audit_status": "invalidated_after_replay",
"source_audit_issues": [
{
"event_id": "robbins_marriage_1968",
"issue": "The cited public biography gives 1967-03-10, not 1968."
},
{
"event_id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947",
"issue": "Multiple public biographies give 1945, not 1947."
}
],
"minimum_gate": {
"public_aa_cases": 20,
"events_per_case": 3,
"domains_per_case": 2,
"independent_event_sources_per_case": 2,
"negative_minutes_per_case": 4
},
"release_metrics": {
"top_1_rate_minimum": 0.6,
"top_3_rate_minimum": 0.85,
"mean_absolute_minute_error_maximum": 2.0,
"false_confirmation_rate_maximum": 0.05,
"correct_insufficient_evidence_rejection_rate_minimum": 0.9
},
"frozen_scoring": {
"algorithm_version": "birth-time-event-fact-ranker-v4-shadow",
"implementation_sha256": "f41c298dd6cdcebe7a93e632f7191954be7987f6012ca2a34cecb6e447fbf196",
"files": [
"scripts/active_rectification_event_engine.py",
"scripts/active_rectification_events.py",
"scripts/ashtakavarga.py",
"scripts/dasha_analyzer.py",
"scripts/divisional_charts_extended.py",
"scripts/domain_calculation_service.py",
"scripts/jaimini.py",
"scripts/minute_rectification_fact_ranker_v4.py",
"scripts/minute_rectification_feature_facts_v4.py",
"scripts/narayana_dasha.py",
"scripts/shadbala.py",
"scripts/varga.py"
],
"tie_breaker": "sha256(benchmark_id:case_id:candidate_time); published minute is never passed to the ranker"
},
"cases": [
{
"case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
"subject_label": "Barack Obama",
"holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
"excluded_from_tuning": true,
"candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
"false_minute_offsets": [-10, -5, -2, -1, 1, 2, 5, 10],
"birth": {
"date": "1961-08-04", "time": "19:24",
"place": "Honolulu, Hawaii, United States",
"latitude": 21.3069, "longitude": -157.8583, "timezone_offset": -10.0,
"source": {"publisher": "Astro-Databank", "url": "https://www.astro.com/adbvip/adbvip_08_04.htm?lang=r&nho2=161&nhor=1", "rodden_rating": "AA", "record_type": "birth_record"}
},
"events": [
{"id": "obama_wedding_1992_v4", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1992-10-03", "precision": "day", "description": "Married Michelle Robinson.", "source": {"publisher": "Obama Foundation", "url": "https://obama.org/about/administration/chicago-where-it-began/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "obama_illinois_senate_1996_v4", "domain": "career", "date": "1996-11-05", "precision": "day", "description": "Elected to the Illinois State Senate.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_Senate_career_of_Barack_Obama", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "obama_presidential_election_2008_v4", "domain": "career", "date": "2008-11-04", "precision": "day", "description": "Elected President of the United States.", "source": {"publisher": "White House Archives", "url": "https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/1600/presidents/barackobama/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
]
},
{
"case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
"subject_label": "Angelina Jolie", "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation", "excluded_from_tuning": true,
"candidate_radius_minutes": 10, "false_minute_offsets": [-10, -5, -2, -1, 1, 2, 5, 10],
"birth": {
"date": "1975-06-04", "time": "09:09", "place": "Los Angeles, California, United States",
"latitude": 34.0961, "longitude": -118.2944, "timezone_offset": -7.0,
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},
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{"id": "jolie_mastectomy_2013", "domain": "health_pressure", "date": "2013", "precision": "year", "description": "Underwent preventive double mastectomy treatment.", "source": {"publisher": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/14/opinion/my-medical-choice.html", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "jolie_marriage_2014", "domain": "relationship", "date": "2014-08-23", "precision": "day", "description": "Married Brad Pitt.", "source": {"publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Angelina-Jolie", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
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},
{
"case_id": "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
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{"id": "woods_marriage_2004", "domain": "relationship", "date": "2004-10-05", "precision": "day", "description": "Married Elin Nordegren.", "source": {"publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tiger-Woods", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "woods_car_crash_2021", "domain": "health_pressure", "date": "2021-02-23", "precision": "day", "description": "Sustained serious injuries in a motor-vehicle crash.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiger_Woods", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
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{
"case_id": "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout",
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{"id": "taylor_oscar_1961", "domain": "career", "date": "1961", "precision": "year", "description": "Won the Academy Award for Butterfield 8.", "source": {"publisher": "Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences", "url": "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/1961", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "taylor_brain_surgery_1997", "domain": "health_pressure", "date": "1997", "precision": "year", "description": "Underwent surgery for a benign brain tumor.", "source": {"publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Elizabeth-Taylor-American-actress/Final-films-and-HIV-AIDS-activism", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
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},
{
"case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout",
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{"id": "montgomery_bewitched_1964", "domain": "career", "date": "1964-09-17", "precision": "day", "description": "Bewitched premiered on television.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bewitched", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "montgomery_cancer_1995", "domain": "health_pressure", "date": "1995", "precision": "year", "description": "Was diagnosed with colorectal cancer and died later that year.", "source": {"publisher": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/1995/05/19/obituaries/elizabeth-montgomery-62-star-of-the-tv-comedy-bewitched.html", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
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{
"case_id": "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout",
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{"id": "picasso_marriage_1918", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1918-07-12", "precision": "day", "description": "Married Olga Khokhlova.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pablo_Picasso", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "picasso_guernica_1937", "domain": "career", "date": "1937", "precision": "year", "description": "Created and exhibited Guernica.", "source": {"publisher": "Museum of Modern Art", "url": "https://www.moma.org/collection/works/79018", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
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{
"case_id": "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout",
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{"id": "freud_dreams_publication_1899", "domain": "career", "date": "1899", "precision": "year", "description": "Published The Interpretation of Dreams.", "source": {"publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Sigmund-Freud/Psychoanalytic-theory", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "freud_moved_london_1938", "domain": "relocation", "date": "1938", "precision": "year", "description": "Fled Nazi-occupied Vienna and settled in London.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freud_Museum", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
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{
"case_id": "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout",
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},
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{"id": "hayek_frida_2002", "domain": "career", "date": "2002", "precision": "year", "description": "Produced and starred in Frida.", "source": {"publisher": "Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences", "url": "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2003", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "hayek_marriage_2009", "domain": "relationship", "date": "2009-02-14", "precision": "day", "description": "Married Francois-Henri Pinault.", "source": {"publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Salma-Hayek/Personal-life", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
]
},
{
"case_id": "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout",
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},
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{"id": "reich_music_18_premiere_1976", "domain": "career", "date": "1976-04-24", "precision": "day", "description": "Music for 18 Musicians received its world premiere.", "source": {"publisher": "Pulitzer Prizes", "url": "https://www.pulitzer.org/winners/steve-reich", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
]
},
{
"case_id": "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
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{"id": "brooks_oscar_nomination_1988", "domain": "career", "date": "1988", "precision": "year", "description": "Received an Academy Award nomination for Broadcast News.", "source": {"publisher": "Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences", "url": "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/1988", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "brooks_marriage_1997", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1997", "precision": "year", "description": "Married Kimberly Shlain.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kimberly_Brooks_(artist)", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
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{
"case_id": "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout",
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},
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{"id": "ryan_marriage_2000", "domain": "relationship", "date": "2000-12-02", "precision": "day", "description": "Married Janna Little.", "source": {"publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Paul-Ryan", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "ryan_speaker_2015", "domain": "career", "date": "2015-10-29", "precision": "day", "description": "Was elected Speaker of the House.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2015_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
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},
{
"case_id": "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout",
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},
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{"id": "kennedy_big_game_1958", "domain": "career", "date": "1958", "precision": "year", "description": "Began hosting his first national game show, The Big Game.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Kennedy_(television_host)", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "kennedy_name_that_tune_1974", "domain": "career", "date": "1974", "precision": "year", "description": "Began hosting the syndicated Name That Tune.", "source": {"publisher": "The Hollywood Reporter", "url": "https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/tom-kennedy-dead-game-show-host-name-that-tune-was-93-4074025/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
]
},
{
"case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout",
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},
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{"id": "andrew_marriage_1986", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1986-07-23", "precision": "day", "description": "Married Sarah Ferguson.", "source": {"publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Prince-Andrew-duke-of-York", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "andrew_divorce_1996", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1996-05-30", "precision": "day", "description": "Divorce from Sarah Ferguson became final.", "source": {"publisher": "The Royal Family", "url": "https://www.royal.uk/duke-york", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
]
},
{
"case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
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},
"events": [
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{"id": "lennon_into_sun_1998", "domain": "career", "date": "1998-05-19", "precision": "day", "description": "Released his debut album Into the Sun.", "source": {"publisher": "AllMusic", "url": "https://www.allmusic.com/album/into-the-sun-mw0000036772", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "lennon_friendly_fire_2006", "domain": "career", "date": "2006-09-26", "precision": "day", "description": "Released the album Friendly Fire.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_Fire_(Sean_Lennon_album)", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
]
},
{
"case_id": "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout",
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},
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{"id": "kennedy_elected_house_2012", "domain": "career", "date": "2012-11-06", "precision": "day", "description": "Was elected to the United States House of Representatives.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Massachusetts", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "kennedy_marriage_2012", "domain": "relationship", "date": "2012-12-01", "precision": "day", "description": "Married Lauren Birchfield.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Kennedy_III", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
]
},
{
"case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout",
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},
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{"id": "cobain_marriage_1992", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1992-02-24", "precision": "day", "description": "Married Courtney Love.", "source": {"publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica", "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Kurt-Cobain", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "cobain_overdose_1994", "domain": "health_pressure", "date": "1994-03-04", "precision": "day", "description": "Was hospitalized after an overdose in Rome.", "source": {"publisher": "The Seattle Times", "url": "https://www.seattletimes.com/entertainment/music/kurt-cobain-a-timeline-of-his-life/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
]
},
{
"case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
"subject_label": "John Robbins", "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation", "excluded_from_tuning": true,
"candidate_radius_minutes": 10, "false_minute_offsets": [-10, -5, -2, -1, 1, 2, 5, 10],
"birth": {
"date": "1947-10-26", "time": "02:56", "place": "Glendale, California, United States",
"latitude": 34.15, "longitude": -118.25, "timezone_offset": -8.0,
"source": {"publisher": "Astro-Databank", "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Robbins%2C_John", "rodden_rating": "AA", "record_type": "birth_record"}
},
"events": [
{"id": "robbins_marriage_1968", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1968", "precision": "year", "description": "Married Deo Robbins.", "source": {"publisher": "John Robbins", "url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/about/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "robbins_diet_book_1987", "domain": "career", "date": "1987", "precision": "year", "description": "Published Diet for a New America.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "robbins_health_book_1996", "domain": "career", "date": "1996", "precision": "year", "description": "Published Reclaiming Our Health.", "source": {"publisher": "John Robbins", "url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/books/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
]
},
{
"case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout",
"subject_label": "Chad Everett", "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation", "excluded_from_tuning": true,
"candidate_radius_minutes": 10, "false_minute_offsets": [-10, -5, -2, -1, 1, 2, 5, 10],
"birth": {
"date": "1937-06-11", "time": "22:20", "place": "South Bend, Indiana, United States",
"latitude": 41.6833, "longitude": -86.25, "timezone_offset": -5.0,
"source": {"publisher": "Astro-Databank", "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Everett%2C_Chad", "rodden_rating": "AA", "record_type": "birth_record"}
},
"events": [
{"id": "everett_marriage_1966", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1966-05-22", "precision": "day", "description": "Married actress Shelby Grant.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chad_Everett", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "everett_medical_center_1969", "domain": "career", "date": "1969", "precision": "year", "description": "Began starring in Medical Center.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_Center_(TV_series)", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "everett_lung_cancer_2012", "domain": "health_pressure", "date": "2012", "precision": "year", "description": "Died after a battle with lung cancer.", "source": {"publisher": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/arts/television/chad-everett-medical-center-star-dies-at-75.html", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
]
},
{
"case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout",
"subject_label": "Bernd Eichinger", "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation", "excluded_from_tuning": true,
"candidate_radius_minutes": 10, "false_minute_offsets": [-10, -5, -2, -1, 1, 2, 5, 10],
"birth": {
"date": "1949-04-11", "time": "13:15", "place": "Neuburg an der Donau, Germany",
"latitude": 48.7333, "longitude": 11.1833, "timezone_offset": 2.0,
"source": {"publisher": "Astro-Databank", "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Eichinger%2C_Bernd", "rodden_rating": "AA", "record_type": "birth_record"}
},
"events": [
{"id": "eichinger_constantin_1979", "domain": "career", "date": "1979", "precision": "year", "description": "Bought a stake in Neue Constantin Film and became executive director.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constantin_Film", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "eichinger_summit_1991", "domain": "career", "date": "1991", "precision": "year", "description": "Co-founded Summit Entertainment.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summit_Entertainment", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "eichinger_marriage_2006", "domain": "relationship", "date": "2006", "precision": "year", "description": "Married Katja Hofmann.", "source": {"publisher": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-berndeichinger/film-producer-bernd-eichinger-dies-at-61-idUSTRE70O6BJ20110125", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
]
},
{
"case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout",
"subject_label": "Iwao Takamoto", "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation", "excluded_from_tuning": true,
"candidate_radius_minutes": 10, "false_minute_offsets": [-10, -5, -2, -1, 1, 2, 5, 10],
"birth": {
"date": "1925-04-29", "time": "20:00", "place": "Los Angeles, California, United States",
"latitude": 34.05, "longitude": -118.25, "timezone_offset": -8.0,
"source": {"publisher": "Astro-Databank", "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Takamoto%2C_Iwao", "rodden_rating": "AA", "record_type": "birth_record"}
},
"events": [
{"id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947", "domain": "career", "date": "1947", "precision": "year", "description": "Joined Walt Disney Animation Studios.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "takamoto_hanna_barbera_1961", "domain": "career", "date": "1961", "precision": "year", "description": "Moved to Hanna-Barbera and began designing its characters.", "source": {"publisher": "Animation Magazine", "url": "https://www.animationmagazine.net/2007/01/animation-legend-iwao-takamoto-dies/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
{"id": "takamoto_heart_attack_2007", "domain": "health_pressure", "date": "2007-01-08", "precision": "day", "description": "Died following a heart attack.", "source": {"publisher": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/10/arts/10takamoto.html", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
]
}
],
"boundary": "This sealed set was invalidated by post-replay source-content audit and may only be used as development evidence. A future release replay requires a new scorer version and a fresh source-audited sealed evaluation set."
}
references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_report.json
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{
"scope": "minute_rectification_fact_ranker_v4_blind_holdout",
"benchmark_id": "minute_rectification_fact_ranker_v4_holdout_v3",
"evaluated_on": "2026-07-21",
"status": "invalidated_after_source_audit",
"trial_count": 20,
"frozen_scoring": {
"algorithm_version": "birth-time-event-fact-ranker-v4-shadow",
"implementation_hash_matches": true,
"implementation_sha256": "f41c298dd6cdcebe7a93e632f7191954be7987f6012ca2a34cecb6e447fbf196"
},
"validation": {
"status_at_replay": "ready_for_blind_replay",
"post_replay_status": "invalidated_after_source_audit",
"valid_public_aa_cases": 20,
"minimum_public_aa_cases": 20,
"manifest_errors": [],
"invalid_cases": []
},
"post_replay_source_audit": {
"passed": false,
"issues": [
{"event_id": "robbins_marriage_1968", "submitted_date": "1968", "verified_date": "1967-03-10"},
{"event_id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947", "submitted_date": "1947", "verified_date": "1945"}
]
},
"release_metrics": {
"top_1_rate": {"actual": 0.15, "minimum": 0.6, "passed": false},
"top_3_rate": {"actual": 0.25, "minimum": 0.85, "passed": false},
"mean_absolute_minute_error": {"actual": 6.95, "maximum": 2.0, "passed": false},
"false_confirmation_rate": {"actual": 0.0, "maximum": 0.05, "passed": true},
"correct_insufficient_evidence_rejection_rate": {"actual": 1.0, "minimum": 0.9, "passed": true},
"confirmation_coverage_rate": 0.0
},
"metric_gates_passed": false,
"verified_minute_claim_allowed": false,
"trials": [
{"case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "19:32", "true_rank": 4, "minute_error": 8, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "09:19", "true_rank": 7, "minute_error": 10, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "22:55", "true_rank": 11, "minute_error": 5, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "02:39", "true_rank": 6, "minute_error": 9, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "16:35", "true_rank": 7, "minute_error": 3, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "23:06", "true_rank": 16, "minute_error": 9, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "18:22", "true_rank": 10, "minute_error": 8, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "06:33", "true_rank": 13, "minute_error": 7, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "18:17", "true_rank": 4, "minute_error": 4, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "03:08", "true_rank": 9, "minute_error": 8, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "02:47", "true_rank": 2, "minute_error": 10, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": true},
{"case_id": "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "17:30", "true_rank": 1, "minute_error": 5, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "15:20", "true_rank": 4, "minute_error": 10, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "02:03", "true_rank": 1, "minute_error": 3, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "21:43", "true_rank": 1, "minute_error": 1, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "19:28", "true_rank": 4, "minute_error": 10, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "02:59", "true_rank": 17, "minute_error": 3, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "22:27", "true_rank": 11, "minute_error": 7, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "13:06", "true_rank": 8, "minute_error": 9, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false},
{"case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout", "predicted_time": "19:50", "true_rank": 3, "minute_error": 10, "would_confirm": false, "neighbor_stability": false, "leave_one_event_out": false}
],
"decision": "reject_v4_production_promotion_and_invalidate_holdout_for_release",
"boundary": "The failed performance remains diagnostic, but this set is not a valid release holdout after source-content audit failed. It may become development evidence only; a revised scorer requires a new version and a fresh sealed holdout."
}