fix(rectification): invite-first collect, holdout at 4 events, Skill 10.0.23 (BUG-646–648)

Stop domain-wheel collecting and age-band years in prompts. Ask until the training gate, then discriminate until convergence, then deliver a range plus a concrete follow-up. Reserve holdout only with four dated events.

Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com>

scripts/rectification/case_holdout.py

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 """Per-case holdout reservation for birth-time rectification.
 
-Reserve at least one dated event as soon as collection has two dated
-events. Holdout evidence must not enter screening totals, candidate
+Reserve a holdout only when collection already has four dated events.
+Holdout evidence must not enter screening totals, candidate
 scoring, or discriminator probe selection. The public AA sealed holdout
 contract is a different file (`sealed_holdout.py`).
 """
@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ from typing import Any
 
 from scripts.rectification.candidate_contrast import event_year
 
-MIN_EVENTS_TO_RESERVE_HOLDOUT = 2
+MIN_EVENTS_TO_RESERVE_HOLDOUT = 4
 _MONTH_OR_BETTER = frozenset({"day", "month"})
 
 
@@ -61,12 +61,19 @@ def pick_holdout_id(events: Sequence[dict[str, Any]] | None) -> str | None:
     return _event_id(ranked[-1]) if ranked else None
 
 
+def holdout_reservation_status(events: Sequence[dict[str, Any]] | None) -> str:
+    dated = dated_events(events)
+    if len(dated) < MIN_EVENTS_TO_RESERVE_HOLDOUT:
+        return "not_reserved_min_events"
+    return "reserved" if pick_holdout_id(events) else "not_reserved_min_events"
+
+
 def sticky_holdout_id(
     events: Sequence[dict[str, Any]] | None,
     previous_holdout_id: str | None = None,
 ) -> str | None:
     ids = {_event_id(event) for event in dated_events(events)}
-    if previous_holdout_id and previous_holdout_id in ids:
+    if previous_holdout_id and previous_holdout_id in ids and len(dated_events(events)) >= MIN_EVENTS_TO_RESERVE_HOLDOUT:
         return previous_holdout_id
     explicit = [
         _event_id(event)