Build event adjudication skeleton for relationship and wealth

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# Event Judgment Skeleton v1.0
> 用途:把分散在 `full-reading`、`dasha`、`jaimini`、`varga`、`kp`、`shadbala`、`ashtakavarga`、`references/verified-patterns-*` 中的证据,收束成统一的事件裁决链。
> 适用:marriage / career / wealth / health / generic event verification
---
## 1. Route
不要只按触发词路由。每次先识别三件事:
1. **问题域**
- `relationship`
- `career`
- `wealth`
- `health`
- `generic_event`
2. **任务类型**
- `prediction`
- `backtest`
- `rectification_support`
- `multi-option adjudication`
3. **目标粒度**
- `trend`
- `window`
- `month_level`
- `event_level verification`
若这三件事没有先冻结,不得继续下判。
---
## 2. Evidence Ledger
每个模块必须变成结构化证据块,而不是散乱叙述。
```json
{
"module": "marriage_timing",
"subtechnique": "double_transit",
"question_domain": "relationship",
"verdict_role": "activation",
"signal": "supportive|mixed|contradictory|blocked",
"strength": 0.0,
"raw_values": {},
"engine": "native|pyjhora|vedastro|jyotishganit",
"ayanamsa": "lahiri",
"node_mode": "mean|true",
"template_id": "darakaraka_ul_spouse_depth",
"case_ref_ids": [],
"maturity": "complete|covered|partial",
"notes": ""
}
```
最少要求:
- `module`
- `subtechnique`
- `verdict_role`
- `signal`
- `strength`
- `raw_values`
- `engine`
- `ayanamsa`
- `node_mode`
- `maturity`
---
## 3. Adjudication
所有事件判断必须按以下顺序:
1. **Promise**
- 本命是否有该主题的承载力?
- 禁止直接从 Dasha/Transit 跳到“会发生”
2. **Activation**
- Dasha / Transit / Annual / Jaimini / KP 是否激活?
3. **Manifestation**
- 是否足以落到现实事件,而不是只形成心理主题、机会接触或背景躁动?
4. **Timing**
- 若 Promise + Activation + Manifestation 都成立,才进入 timing 窗口判定
### 矛盾优先级
若不同证据块冲突,按以下顺序裁决:
1. `verified pattern / benchmark`
2. `cross-system convergence`
3. `classical rule with prerequisites satisfied`
4. `single module output`
若冲突无法裁决,必须输出 `blocked`。
---
## 4. Confidence Mapping
置信度不得只按“有几个名人案例”判断,至少同时考虑以下 6 维:
1. `benchmark/case support`
2. `technique maturity`
3. `cross-system convergence`
4. `birth time precision`
5. `oracle closure status`
6. `contradiction severity`
建议映射:
- `A`:多案例 / benchmark 强支撑 + complete/covered + 多系统同向 + 参数清晰
- `B`:部分案例支撑 + 多模块同向 + 仍有轻微边界
- `C`:经典规则存在,但统计、闭环或关键层不足
- `D`:仅单一模块、关键层缺失或矛盾明显
---
## 5. Output Contract
最终输出必须包含:
1. `verdict`
2. `confidence`
3. `conflicts`
4. `Technique Audit Table`
5. `raw evidence`
最小 JSON 形态:
```json
{
"event_family": "relationship",
"verdict": "high_probability_window|moderate_probability_window|weak_window_needs_confirmation|insufficient_evidence|blocked",
"confidence": "A|B|C|D",
"conflicts": [],
"primary_drivers": [],
"missing_evidence": [],
"raw_evidence_refs": []
}
```
---
## 6. Hard Stops
以下任一项未满足时,不得包装成高严谨结论:
- 未显式声明 `Ayanamsa / Node mode`
- 未显式声明 `Functional Benefic/Malefic`
- timing 问题未完成 `Vimshottari + Narayana`
- 题目域分盘未展开(relationship -> D9/UL;career -> D10/A10;wealth -> D2/D11)
- 外部 oracle 未闭环却假装全局封顶
- 缺少 `Technique Audit Table`