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Jyotisha/docs/research/representative_pairs_probe_2026_09_26.json
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Jesse_ChenandClaude Opus 5.5 0f5442cea2 research(rectification): offline R1/R2/R3 — answer-flip tolerance, V1/V2 rerun, dasha shift arithmetic 
- R1: flipping 1 answer keeps truth in range 98-100% but cuts head hit by
  a third or more; 2 flips squeeze truth out in 7-10% of ±30/±60 replays
  (two flips = 8 points = SEPARATION_LEAD).
- R2: weights do apply (research scorer == production at V0); V1/V2 are
  identity at ±30/±60 by construction and leave six-question metrics
  unchanged at ±10 -> no_benefit (measured). Supplementary V1n does not
  pass the gate.
- R3: boundary shift is ~3.8 days/minute (1.3-5.9), not 1.1; the 45-day
  gate is ~8-34 minutes. The _representative_pairs hypothesis is refuted
  (all-pairs adds no dated probes); the bottleneck is monthly evaluation.
  New finding recorded as BUG-1048 (investigating): _boundary_windows
  year-straddle exemption and positional zip misalignment bypass the gate.
- Dated errata appended (no deletions) to the 09-14/09-16 briefs and
  research docs; README board row -> 待验收. No production code, scoring,
  thresholds, gates or Skill changed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017eEAG8HD3mm8gsKXgk8uU8
2026-09-26 14:47:48 +08:00

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"dasha_boundary_evaluated": 485,
"dasha_boundary_split": 13
},
"vim_pass_by_gap": 24253,
"vim_pass_by_year_straddle": 431,
"vim_pass_by_misaligned_zip": 292
},
"strict_gate": {
"union_dates": 287,
"probes": {
"public": 8,
"all_before_cap": 8,
"dasha_boundary_before_cap": 8,
"dasha_boundary_public": 8,
"public_new": 8,
"public_new_dasha_boundary": 8,
"public_new_separating_truth": 8,
"sources": [
"dasha_boundary"
],
"dasha_boundary_evaluated": 198,
"dasha_boundary_split": 11
}
}
},
"refresh": {
"reps": 5,
"rep_span_minutes": 14,
"production_pairs": {
"count": 5,
"clearing_gate": 1,
"zip_misaligned": 2,
"with_vim_windows": 5,
"union_dates": 772,
"probes": {
"public": 6,
"all_before_cap": 6,
"dasha_boundary_before_cap": 6,
"dasha_boundary_public": 6,
"public_new": 6,
"public_new_dasha_boundary": 6,
"public_new_separating_truth": 6,
"sources": [
"dasha_boundary"
],
"dasha_boundary_evaluated": 1032,
"dasha_boundary_split": 6
},
"vim_pass_by_gap": 355,
"vim_pass_by_year_straddle": 83,
"vim_pass_by_misaligned_zip": 252
},
"all_pairs": {
"count": 10,
"clearing_gate": 5,
"zip_misaligned": 4,
"with_vim_windows": 10,
"union_dates": 830,
"probes": {
"public": 7,
"all_before_cap": 7,
"dasha_boundary_before_cap": 7,
"dasha_boundary_public": 7,
"public_new": 7,
"public_new_dasha_boundary": 7,
"public_new_separating_truth": 7,
"sources": [
"dasha_boundary"
],
"dasha_boundary_evaluated": 1110,
"dasha_boundary_split": 7
},
"vim_pass_by_gap": 2073,
"vim_pass_by_year_straddle": 123,
"vim_pass_by_misaligned_zip": 252
},
"strict_gate": {
"union_dates": 721,
"probes": {
"public": 7,
"all_before_cap": 7,
"dasha_boundary_before_cap": 7,
"dasha_boundary_public": 7,
"public_new": 7,
"public_new_dasha_boundary": 7,
"public_new_separating_truth": 7,
"sources": [
"dasha_boundary"
],
"dasha_boundary_evaluated": 903,
"dasha_boundary_split": 7
}
}
}
}
}
],
"errors": [],
"command": "python3 scripts/research/representative_pairs_probe.py"
}
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