Jesse_ChenandClaude Fable 5.1
dc732825d8
出卡时机只看题源有没有空：撤回「门槛达标就短路采集线」的写法，同时 按 D2 保住「题源全空就按现行规则出卡」——门槛只在还有题可问时挡住 出卡，precision_gate_met 改成只上报（新挂在决策与公开投影上），不再 单独决定时机。引导窗口题在无领域轨道上改问开放题，一个时间窗只问一 次；录入卡提交的是「YYYY 年 M 月，<领域>方面有一件事」，不再是题干 的三选一列表。记忆化 golden 只补一个新键并冻结墙钟。离线回放改成注 入真值方向的边界事件，另跑一组反方向对照。Skill 10.0.28。 BUG-747～752 Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01JUei7K13cYxLHE3Axe4A45
4395 lines
87 KiB
JSON
4395 lines
87 KiB
JSON
{
|
|
"generated_at": "2026-09-16",
|
|
"holdout": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v4.json",
|
|
"ask_count": 6,
|
|
"guided_collect_limit": 6,
|
|
"injection": "truth = the true candidate's own boundary date for that window's track and index; opposite = the boundary of the remaining candidate furthest from the true minute",
|
|
"delivery_max_width_minutes": 10,
|
|
"tie_percent": 3,
|
|
"elapsed_s": 351.6,
|
|
"summaries": [
|
|
{
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"n": 20,
|
|
"met": 3,
|
|
"met_after_six_only": 3,
|
|
"met_via_guided": 0,
|
|
"median_events_to_gate": 0,
|
|
"median_events_via_guided": null,
|
|
"median_windows": 6.0,
|
|
"unmet": 17,
|
|
"errors": 0
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"n": 20,
|
|
"met": 3,
|
|
"met_after_six_only": 3,
|
|
"met_via_guided": 0,
|
|
"median_events_to_gate": 0,
|
|
"median_events_via_guided": null,
|
|
"median_windows": 6.0,
|
|
"unmet": 17,
|
|
"errors": 0
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"n": 20,
|
|
"met": 1,
|
|
"met_after_six_only": 1,
|
|
"met_via_guided": 0,
|
|
"median_events_to_gate": 0,
|
|
"median_events_via_guided": null,
|
|
"median_windows": 6.0,
|
|
"unmet": 19,
|
|
"errors": 0
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"n": 20,
|
|
"met": 1,
|
|
"met_after_six_only": 1,
|
|
"met_via_guided": 0,
|
|
"median_events_to_gate": 0,
|
|
"median_events_via_guided": null,
|
|
"median_windows": 6.0,
|
|
"unmet": 19,
|
|
"errors": 0
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"n": 20,
|
|
"met": 0,
|
|
"met_after_six_only": 0,
|
|
"met_via_guided": 0,
|
|
"median_events_to_gate": null,
|
|
"median_events_via_guided": null,
|
|
"median_windows": 6.0,
|
|
"unmet": 20,
|
|
"errors": 0
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"n": 20,
|
|
"met": 0,
|
|
"met_after_six_only": 0,
|
|
"met_via_guided": 0,
|
|
"median_events_to_gate": null,
|
|
"median_events_via_guided": null,
|
|
"median_windows": 6.0,
|
|
"unmet": 20,
|
|
"errors": 0
|
|
}
|
|
],
|
|
"rows": [
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 2,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
23,
|
|
21,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 2,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
23,
|
|
21,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"19:24:2026-05-08",
|
|
"19:24:2026-10-03",
|
|
"19:24:2026-12-02",
|
|
"19:24:2024-12-10",
|
|
"19:24:2025-02-03",
|
|
"19:24:2025-07-09"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 2,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
23,
|
|
21,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 2,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
23,
|
|
21,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"19:14:2026-06-01",
|
|
"19:14:2026-10-27",
|
|
"19:14:2026-12-26",
|
|
"19:14:2025-01-03",
|
|
"19:14:2025-02-27",
|
|
"19:14:2025-08-02"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 39,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 39,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"19:24:2026-09-01",
|
|
"19:24:2026-12-02",
|
|
"19:24:2025-03-01",
|
|
"19:24:2025-09-13",
|
|
"19:24:2025-09-13",
|
|
"19:24:2025-10-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 39,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 39,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"18:54:2026-09-01",
|
|
"18:54:2026-12-14",
|
|
"18:54:2025-03-01",
|
|
"18:54:2024-08-03",
|
|
"18:54:2024-08-03",
|
|
"18:54:2025-10-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 25,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 17,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
18,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"19:24:2026-05-08",
|
|
"19:24:2026-09-01",
|
|
"19:24:2026-11-01",
|
|
"19:24:2026-12-07",
|
|
"19:24:2024-12-10",
|
|
"19:24:2025-06-15"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 25,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 25,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
15,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"19:04:2026-06-25",
|
|
"19:04:2026-09-01",
|
|
"19:04:2026-11-01",
|
|
"19:04:2013-04-28",
|
|
"19:04:2025-01-27",
|
|
"19:04:2011-03-11"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 19,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
22,
|
|
21,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 19,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
22,
|
|
21,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"09:09:2025-11-28",
|
|
"09:09:2025-12-28",
|
|
"09:09:2026-03-24",
|
|
"09:09:2026-04-19",
|
|
"09:09:2026-06-01",
|
|
"09:09:2026-07-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 19,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
22,
|
|
21,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 19,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
22,
|
|
21,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"08:59:2026-01-06",
|
|
"08:59:2026-02-05",
|
|
"08:59:2026-05-02",
|
|
"08:59:2026-05-28",
|
|
"08:59:2026-07-10",
|
|
"08:59:2026-08-09"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
11,
|
|
10,
|
|
10
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
11,
|
|
10,
|
|
10
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"09:09:2026-03-24",
|
|
"09:09:2026-09-17",
|
|
"09:09:2026-10-01",
|
|
"09:09:2026-11-01",
|
|
"09:09:2026-12-01",
|
|
"09:09:2024-12-15"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
11,
|
|
10,
|
|
10
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
12,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"08:39:2026-04-24",
|
|
"08:39:2026-10-27",
|
|
"08:39:2026-10-01",
|
|
"08:39:2026-11-01",
|
|
"08:39:2026-12-01",
|
|
"08:39:2025-01-05"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 53,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
12,
|
|
12
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 53,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
12,
|
|
12
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"09:09:2025-09-15",
|
|
"09:09:2026-03-01",
|
|
"09:09:2026-06-01",
|
|
"09:09:2025-01-01",
|
|
"09:09:2025-03-01",
|
|
"09:09:2025-06-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 53,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
12,
|
|
12
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 53,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
13,
|
|
13,
|
|
13
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"08:37:2026-01-19",
|
|
"08:37:2026-03-01",
|
|
"08:37:2026-06-01",
|
|
"08:37:2025-01-01",
|
|
"08:37:2025-03-01",
|
|
"08:37:2025-06-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
17,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
17,
|
|
17,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"22:50:2026-03-28",
|
|
"22:50:2026-08-06",
|
|
"22:50:2026-12-01",
|
|
"22:50:2024-12-18",
|
|
"22:50:2025-01-22",
|
|
"22:50:2025-02-12"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
17,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
17,
|
|
17,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"22:40:2026-04-15",
|
|
"22:40:2026-08-24",
|
|
"22:40:2026-12-01",
|
|
"22:40:2025-01-05",
|
|
"22:40:2025-02-10",
|
|
"22:40:2025-03-02"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 27,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
15,
|
|
15,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 35,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
12,
|
|
12
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"22:50:2022-03-30",
|
|
"22:50:2022-06-29",
|
|
"22:50:2026-12-01",
|
|
"22:50:2025-03-31",
|
|
"22:50:2025-10-31",
|
|
"22:50:2024-01-30"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 27,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
15,
|
|
15,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 27,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
15,
|
|
15,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"23:06:2026-03-12",
|
|
"23:06:2026-10-17",
|
|
"23:06:2026-12-01",
|
|
"23:06:2025-03-02",
|
|
"23:06:2025-10-02",
|
|
"23:06:2024-01-26"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
9,
|
|
9,
|
|
8
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
10,
|
|
10,
|
|
10
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"22:50:2026-10-01",
|
|
"22:50:2021-04-29",
|
|
"22:50:2025-05-23",
|
|
"22:50:2025-11-01",
|
|
"22:50:2024-12-10",
|
|
"22:50:2022-03-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "tiger_woods_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
9,
|
|
9,
|
|
8
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
10,
|
|
10,
|
|
10
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"23:40:2026-10-01",
|
|
"23:40:2026-12-29",
|
|
"23:40:2018-02-03",
|
|
"23:40:2025-11-01",
|
|
"23:40:2024-10-07",
|
|
"23:40:2022-03-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 13,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
27,
|
|
26,
|
|
26
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 13,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
27,
|
|
26,
|
|
25
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:30:2012-01-08",
|
|
"02:30:2012-02-20",
|
|
"02:30:2012-04-05",
|
|
"02:30:2012-05-16",
|
|
"02:30:2012-09-02",
|
|
"02:30:2012-11-07"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 13,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
27,
|
|
26,
|
|
26
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 13,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
26,
|
|
26,
|
|
26
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:40:2011-11-25",
|
|
"02:40:2012-02-22",
|
|
"02:40:2012-04-02",
|
|
"02:40:2012-05-20",
|
|
"02:40:2012-09-09",
|
|
"02:40:2012-09-24"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": 0,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"width": 7,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 10,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
55,
|
|
45
|
|
]
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": 0,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"width": 7,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 10,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
55,
|
|
45
|
|
]
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 33,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 33,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
15,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:30:2012-10-01",
|
|
"02:30:2012-11-01",
|
|
"02:30:2012-12-01",
|
|
"02:30:2003-08-08",
|
|
"02:30:2004-01-10",
|
|
"02:30:2004-05-26"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "elizabeth_taylor_1932_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 33,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 33,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
15,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:58:2012-10-01",
|
|
"02:58:2012-11-01",
|
|
"02:58:2012-12-01",
|
|
"02:58:2003-09-10",
|
|
"02:58:2004-01-26",
|
|
"02:58:2004-07-08"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 7,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
34,
|
|
34,
|
|
33
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 7,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
34,
|
|
34,
|
|
33
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"16:38:2013-10-20",
|
|
"16:38:2012-01-23",
|
|
"16:38:2012-03-18",
|
|
"16:38:2012-05-06",
|
|
"16:38:2012-05-26",
|
|
"16:38:2012-07-24"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 7,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
34,
|
|
34,
|
|
33
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 7,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
34,
|
|
33,
|
|
33
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"16:42:2013-09-28",
|
|
"16:42:2012-01-02",
|
|
"16:42:2012-02-25",
|
|
"16:42:2012-04-14",
|
|
"16:42:2012-05-05",
|
|
"16:42:2012-07-02"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 33,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
22,
|
|
22,
|
|
19
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 33,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
18,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"16:38:2013-03-25",
|
|
"16:38:2013-04-01",
|
|
"16:38:2013-09-01",
|
|
"16:38:2011-12-08",
|
|
"16:38:2012-05-15",
|
|
"16:38:2012-10-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 33,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
22,
|
|
22,
|
|
19
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 33,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
18,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"16:10:2007-04-14",
|
|
"16:10:2013-04-01",
|
|
"16:10:2013-09-01",
|
|
"16:10:2012-03-16",
|
|
"16:10:2007-01-27",
|
|
"16:10:2012-10-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 55,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
11,
|
|
10
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 13,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
35,
|
|
35,
|
|
30
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"16:38:2013-08-01",
|
|
"16:38:2007-05-23",
|
|
"16:38:2000-08-20",
|
|
"16:38:1999-08-07",
|
|
"16:38:1986-04-05",
|
|
"16:38:1986-04-05"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 55,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
11,
|
|
10
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 47,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
28,
|
|
27,
|
|
23
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"15:54:2013-08-01",
|
|
"15:54:2007-04-14",
|
|
"15:54:2000-03-31",
|
|
"15:54:1999-10-23",
|
|
"15:54:1986-04-16",
|
|
"15:54:1986-04-16"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
17,
|
|
17,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
17,
|
|
17,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": []
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
17,
|
|
17,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
17,
|
|
17,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": []
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
7,
|
|
7,
|
|
7
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
7,
|
|
7,
|
|
7
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": []
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
7,
|
|
7,
|
|
7
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
7,
|
|
7,
|
|
7
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": []
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 1439,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
4,
|
|
4,
|
|
4
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 1439,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
4,
|
|
4,
|
|
4
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": []
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "pablo_picasso_1881_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 1439,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
4,
|
|
4,
|
|
4
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 1439,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
4,
|
|
4,
|
|
4
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": []
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
18,
|
|
18
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
18,
|
|
18
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": []
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
18,
|
|
18
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
18,
|
|
18
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": []
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
8,
|
|
8,
|
|
8
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
8,
|
|
8,
|
|
8
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": []
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
8,
|
|
8,
|
|
8
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
8,
|
|
8,
|
|
8
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": []
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 121,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
5,
|
|
4,
|
|
4
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 121,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
5,
|
|
4,
|
|
4
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": []
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "sigmund_freud_1856_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 121,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
5,
|
|
4,
|
|
4
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 121,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
5,
|
|
4,
|
|
4
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": []
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": 0,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"width": 9,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 7,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
40,
|
|
33,
|
|
27
|
|
]
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": 0,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"width": 9,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 7,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
40,
|
|
33,
|
|
27
|
|
]
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 37,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
11,
|
|
11,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 37,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
12,
|
|
12
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"06:40:2026-03-12",
|
|
"06:40:2026-05-10",
|
|
"06:40:2026-06-09",
|
|
"06:40:2026-09-11",
|
|
"06:40:2026-12-01",
|
|
"06:40:2025-10-12"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 37,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
11,
|
|
11,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 25,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
15,
|
|
15,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"06:22:2026-03-07",
|
|
"06:22:2026-07-15",
|
|
"06:22:2026-08-13",
|
|
"06:22:2026-10-24",
|
|
"06:22:2026-12-01",
|
|
"06:22:2025-10-12"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 95,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
14,
|
|
14,
|
|
12
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 95,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
13,
|
|
13,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"06:40:2026-03-25",
|
|
"06:40:2026-07-11",
|
|
"06:40:2026-03-25",
|
|
"06:40:2023-03-13",
|
|
"06:40:1998-12-03",
|
|
"06:40:2023-03-13"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "salma_hayek_1966_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 95,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
14,
|
|
14,
|
|
12
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 95,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
13,
|
|
13,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"07:36:2025-11-13",
|
|
"07:36:2026-05-26",
|
|
"07:36:2025-11-13",
|
|
"07:36:2023-05-15",
|
|
"07:36:2023-01-18",
|
|
"07:36:2023-06-13"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 17,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 4,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
25,
|
|
21,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 17,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 3,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
24,
|
|
21,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"18:21:2016-11-01",
|
|
"18:21:2016-02-29",
|
|
"18:21:2016-03-23",
|
|
"18:21:2016-05-03",
|
|
"18:21:2016-05-01",
|
|
"18:21:2016-11-18"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 17,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 4,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
25,
|
|
21,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 17,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 3,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
24,
|
|
21,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"18:31:2016-11-01",
|
|
"18:31:2012-03-13",
|
|
"18:31:2016-03-06",
|
|
"18:31:2016-05-04",
|
|
"18:31:2016-05-01",
|
|
"18:31:2016-11-19"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 35,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
18,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 5,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 2,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
51,
|
|
49
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"18:21:2016-01-21",
|
|
"18:21:2016-02-29",
|
|
"18:21:2016-03-23",
|
|
"18:21:2016-05-22",
|
|
"18:21:2016-05-22",
|
|
"18:21:2016-10-02"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 35,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
18,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 35,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
15,
|
|
15,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"17:51:2015-10-17",
|
|
"17:51:2007-07-03",
|
|
"17:51:2016-05-12",
|
|
"17:51:2013-10-06",
|
|
"17:51:2013-10-06",
|
|
"17:51:2012-02-17"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 29,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
11,
|
|
11,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 29,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
11,
|
|
11,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"18:21:2016-08-01",
|
|
"18:21:2015-07-01",
|
|
"18:21:2014-10-01",
|
|
"18:21:2016-02-29",
|
|
"18:21:2016-04-19",
|
|
"18:21:2016-08-17"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "steve_reich_1936_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 29,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
11,
|
|
11,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 29,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
11,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"18:05:2016-08-01",
|
|
"18:05:2015-07-01",
|
|
"18:05:2014-10-01",
|
|
"18:05:2011-02-12",
|
|
"18:05:2012-08-13",
|
|
"18:05:2016-08-02"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
15,
|
|
14,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"03:00:2026-01-01",
|
|
"03:00:2026-02-14",
|
|
"03:00:2026-03-04",
|
|
"03:00:2026-04-25",
|
|
"03:00:2026-06-08",
|
|
"03:00:2026-07-08"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
15,
|
|
14,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"03:10:2025-12-16",
|
|
"03:10:2026-01-29",
|
|
"03:10:2026-02-16",
|
|
"03:10:2026-04-10",
|
|
"03:10:2026-05-23",
|
|
"03:10:2026-06-22"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 33,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 4,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
24,
|
|
20,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 33,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 3,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
20,
|
|
17,
|
|
17
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"03:00:2026-01-01",
|
|
"03:00:2026-02-14",
|
|
"03:00:2026-04-25",
|
|
"03:00:2026-06-08",
|
|
"03:00:2026-07-08",
|
|
"03:00:2025-11-13"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 33,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 4,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
24,
|
|
20,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 33,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 2,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
17,
|
|
15,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:30:2025-12-31",
|
|
"02:30:2026-02-18",
|
|
"02:30:2026-04-21",
|
|
"02:30:2026-06-12",
|
|
"02:30:2026-07-25",
|
|
"02:30:2025-11-20"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 107,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
9,
|
|
9,
|
|
8
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 107,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
9,
|
|
8,
|
|
8
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"03:00:2026-02-14",
|
|
"03:00:2026-11-01",
|
|
"03:00:2025-01-01",
|
|
"03:00:2024-06-13",
|
|
"03:00:2025-03-01",
|
|
"03:00:2025-03-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 107,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
9,
|
|
9,
|
|
8
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 107,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
8,
|
|
8,
|
|
8
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"04:00:2026-01-20",
|
|
"04:00:2026-11-01",
|
|
"04:00:2025-01-01",
|
|
"04:00:2025-03-16",
|
|
"04:00:2025-03-01",
|
|
"04:00:2025-03-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
28,
|
|
28,
|
|
25
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
36,
|
|
35,
|
|
29
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:37:2026-10-01",
|
|
"02:37:2026-05-04",
|
|
"02:37:2025-04-28",
|
|
"02:37:2025-06-04",
|
|
"02:37:2024-06-28",
|
|
"02:37:2024-09-04"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
28,
|
|
28,
|
|
25
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
37,
|
|
36,
|
|
28
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:47:2026-10-01",
|
|
"02:47:2025-12-03",
|
|
"02:47:2025-08-07",
|
|
"02:47:2025-05-18",
|
|
"02:47:2025-05-15",
|
|
"02:47:2025-07-04"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 53,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
11,
|
|
10,
|
|
10
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 49,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 2,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
15,
|
|
13,
|
|
13
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:37:2026-04-22",
|
|
"02:37:2026-03-01",
|
|
"02:37:2026-06-01",
|
|
"02:37:2026-06-01",
|
|
"02:37:2026-10-01",
|
|
"02:37:2026-10-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 53,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
11,
|
|
10,
|
|
10
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 49,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
14,
|
|
13,
|
|
13
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:07:2026-01-16",
|
|
"02:07:2026-03-01",
|
|
"02:07:2026-06-01",
|
|
"02:07:2026-06-01",
|
|
"02:07:2026-10-01",
|
|
"02:07:2026-10-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 53,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
10,
|
|
9,
|
|
9
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 47,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
11,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:37:2026-06-05",
|
|
"02:37:2026-05-04",
|
|
"02:37:2026-10-01",
|
|
"02:37:2025-04-28",
|
|
"02:37:2025-06-04",
|
|
"02:37:2024-06-28"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 53,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
10,
|
|
9,
|
|
9
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 47,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
13,
|
|
13,
|
|
12
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:01:2026-06-21",
|
|
"02:01:2017-05-09",
|
|
"02:01:2026-10-01",
|
|
"02:01:2016-09-04",
|
|
"02:01:2025-08-03",
|
|
"02:01:2015-08-30"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 11,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
41,
|
|
30,
|
|
29
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 8,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
39,
|
|
31,
|
|
31
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"17:25:2007-12-01",
|
|
"17:25:2005-05-01",
|
|
"17:25:2001-12-30",
|
|
"17:25:2002-11-07",
|
|
"17:25:2001-08-18",
|
|
"17:25:2001-12-06"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 11,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
41,
|
|
30,
|
|
29
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 8,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
39,
|
|
31,
|
|
30
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"17:15:2007-12-01",
|
|
"17:15:2005-05-18",
|
|
"17:15:2002-01-17",
|
|
"17:15:2002-11-24",
|
|
"17:15:2001-09-05",
|
|
"17:15:2001-12-23"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 14,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
57,
|
|
43
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 13,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 13,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
42,
|
|
29,
|
|
29
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"17:25:2007-12-01",
|
|
"17:25:2005-02-24",
|
|
"17:25:2005-02-24",
|
|
"17:25:2005-02-24",
|
|
"17:25:2005-05-01",
|
|
"17:25:2004-04-29"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 14,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
57,
|
|
43
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 12,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
56,
|
|
44
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"17:19:2007-12-01",
|
|
"17:19:2006-04-30",
|
|
"17:19:2006-10-11",
|
|
"17:19:2006-04-30",
|
|
"17:19:2005-05-11",
|
|
"17:19:2005-07-02"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 57,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
11,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 85,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
10,
|
|
10,
|
|
9
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"17:25:2007-09-01",
|
|
"17:25:2006-05-29",
|
|
"17:25:2006-02-01",
|
|
"17:25:2006-02-01",
|
|
"17:25:2005-05-01",
|
|
"17:25:2005-06-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "tom_kennedy_1927_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 57,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
11,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 85,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
10,
|
|
10,
|
|
9
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"16:35:2007-09-01",
|
|
"16:35:2006-01-18",
|
|
"16:35:2006-02-01",
|
|
"16:35:2006-02-01",
|
|
"16:35:2005-05-01",
|
|
"16:35:2005-06-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": 0,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"width": 5,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": null,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
100
|
|
]
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": 0,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"width": 5,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": null,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
100
|
|
]
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 27,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 5,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
38,
|
|
33,
|
|
29
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 35,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 3,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
24,
|
|
21,
|
|
19
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"15:30:2026-05-25",
|
|
"15:30:2025-07-27",
|
|
"15:30:2024-09-28",
|
|
"15:30:2024-02-10",
|
|
"15:30:2022-10-23",
|
|
"15:30:2021-02-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 27,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 5,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
38,
|
|
33,
|
|
29
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 35,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 3,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
23,
|
|
20,
|
|
19
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"15:52:2014-02-18",
|
|
"15:52:2013-11-09",
|
|
"15:52:2013-04-21",
|
|
"15:52:2023-10-21",
|
|
"15:52:2012-02-18",
|
|
"15:52:2020-10-12"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
50,
|
|
50
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
50,
|
|
50
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"15:30:2026-01-19",
|
|
"15:30:2026-03-06",
|
|
"15:30:2026-05-17",
|
|
"15:30:2026-05-25",
|
|
"15:30:2026-07-03",
|
|
"15:30:2026-10-25"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
50,
|
|
50
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 83,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
22,
|
|
22,
|
|
19
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"15:36:2025-12-20",
|
|
"15:36:2026-02-04",
|
|
"15:36:2026-04-17",
|
|
"15:36:2018-10-06",
|
|
"15:36:2026-06-03",
|
|
"15:36:2026-09-25"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": 0,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"width": 5,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 20,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
60,
|
|
40
|
|
]
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": 0,
|
|
"windows": 0,
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": true,
|
|
"width": 5,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 20,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
60,
|
|
40
|
|
]
|
|
}
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 19,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 8,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
33,
|
|
25,
|
|
22
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 19,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 9,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
40,
|
|
31,
|
|
29
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:00:2026-05-04",
|
|
"02:00:2026-07-08",
|
|
"02:00:2026-12-01",
|
|
"02:00:2025-03-04",
|
|
"02:00:2025-05-16",
|
|
"02:00:2024-03-09"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 19,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 8,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
33,
|
|
25,
|
|
22
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 19,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 7,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
31,
|
|
24,
|
|
23
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"01:44:2026-04-24",
|
|
"01:44:2026-08-07",
|
|
"01:44:2026-12-01",
|
|
"01:44:2025-02-12",
|
|
"01:44:2025-06-11",
|
|
"01:44:2024-02-27"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
23,
|
|
22,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
23,
|
|
22,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:00:2022-11-20",
|
|
"02:00:2026-07-01",
|
|
"02:00:2026-08-01",
|
|
"02:00:2026-10-01",
|
|
"02:00:2026-12-01",
|
|
"02:00:2025-02-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
23,
|
|
22,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
23,
|
|
22,
|
|
20
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"01:38:2020-06-01",
|
|
"01:38:2026-07-01",
|
|
"01:38:2026-08-01",
|
|
"01:38:2026-10-01",
|
|
"01:38:2026-12-01",
|
|
"01:38:2025-02-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 2,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
35,
|
|
33,
|
|
33
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
34,
|
|
33,
|
|
33
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"21:42:2026-01-02",
|
|
"21:42:2026-02-07",
|
|
"21:42:2026-03-04",
|
|
"21:42:2026-05-07",
|
|
"21:42:2026-07-02",
|
|
"21:42:2026-09-08"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 2,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
35,
|
|
33,
|
|
33
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
34,
|
|
33,
|
|
33
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"21:32:2026-01-18",
|
|
"21:32:2026-02-23",
|
|
"21:32:2026-03-20",
|
|
"21:32:2026-05-23",
|
|
"21:32:2026-07-19",
|
|
"21:32:2026-09-24"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
11,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 2,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
36,
|
|
34,
|
|
30
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"21:42:2025-12-12",
|
|
"21:42:2026-01-02",
|
|
"21:42:2026-02-07",
|
|
"21:42:2026-03-04",
|
|
"21:42:2026-05-07",
|
|
"21:42:2026-07-02"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
11,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 2,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
36,
|
|
34,
|
|
30
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"21:12:2026-01-29",
|
|
"21:12:2026-02-20",
|
|
"21:12:2026-03-27",
|
|
"21:12:2026-04-21",
|
|
"21:12:2026-06-24",
|
|
"21:12:2026-08-20"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 75,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
7,
|
|
6,
|
|
6
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 43,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
22,
|
|
22,
|
|
19
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"21:42:2026-09-01",
|
|
"21:42:2026-11-01",
|
|
"21:42:2026-12-01",
|
|
"21:42:2024-11-27",
|
|
"21:42:2025-01-20",
|
|
"21:42:2025-05-06"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "joseph_kennedy_iii_1980_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 75,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
7,
|
|
6,
|
|
6
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 39,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
28,
|
|
27,
|
|
24
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"20:52:2026-09-01",
|
|
"20:52:2026-11-01",
|
|
"20:52:2026-12-01",
|
|
"20:52:2024-12-08",
|
|
"20:52:2024-12-26",
|
|
"20:52:2025-04-11"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 6,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
39,
|
|
33,
|
|
28
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 4,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
37,
|
|
33,
|
|
30
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"19:38:2025-02-17",
|
|
"19:38:2025-08-08",
|
|
"19:38:2024-05-29",
|
|
"19:38:2025-02-17",
|
|
"19:38:2023-04-08",
|
|
"19:38:2023-10-12"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 6,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
39,
|
|
33,
|
|
28
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 15,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 3,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
36,
|
|
33,
|
|
30
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"19:46:2025-01-14",
|
|
"19:46:2025-07-06",
|
|
"19:46:2024-04-26",
|
|
"19:46:2025-01-14",
|
|
"19:46:2023-03-05",
|
|
"19:46:2023-09-09"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 39,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
14,
|
|
13,
|
|
13
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 35,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
15,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"19:38:2026-02-07",
|
|
"19:38:2026-07-19",
|
|
"19:38:2025-02-17",
|
|
"19:38:2025-05-29",
|
|
"19:38:2025-08-08",
|
|
"19:38:2026-02-07"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 39,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
14,
|
|
13,
|
|
13
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 35,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
15,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"19:18:2025-10-31",
|
|
"19:18:2026-05-01",
|
|
"19:18:2025-03-11",
|
|
"19:18:2025-05-11",
|
|
"19:18:2025-08-21",
|
|
"19:18:2025-10-31"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 121,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
6,
|
|
6,
|
|
6
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 115,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
6,
|
|
6,
|
|
5
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"19:38:2023-12-20",
|
|
"19:38:2023-06-01",
|
|
"19:38:2021-10-31",
|
|
"19:38:2022-02-10",
|
|
"19:38:2021-04-24",
|
|
"19:38:2021-10-31"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 121,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
6,
|
|
6,
|
|
6
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 115,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
6,
|
|
6,
|
|
5
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"18:38:2024-06-18",
|
|
"18:38:2023-10-15",
|
|
"18:38:2022-03-09",
|
|
"18:38:2022-07-08",
|
|
"18:38:2021-09-07",
|
|
"18:38:2022-03-09"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 8,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
54,
|
|
46
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 6,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
53,
|
|
47
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:56:2026-08-27",
|
|
"02:56:2026-11-01",
|
|
"02:56:2024-12-06",
|
|
"02:56:2025-05-01",
|
|
"02:56:2025-08-11",
|
|
"02:56:2024-01-24"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 8,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
54,
|
|
46
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 6,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
53,
|
|
47
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:46:2026-08-17",
|
|
"02:46:2026-11-01",
|
|
"02:46:2024-12-16",
|
|
"02:46:2025-04-29",
|
|
"02:46:2025-09-19",
|
|
"02:46:2024-02-04"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
12,
|
|
12
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
12,
|
|
12
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:56:2025-08-11",
|
|
"02:56:2024-04-12",
|
|
"02:56:2024-06-15",
|
|
"02:56:2024-11-08",
|
|
"02:56:2022-10-12",
|
|
"02:56:2022-03-13"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
12,
|
|
12
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
12,
|
|
12,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:26:2025-12-04",
|
|
"02:26:2024-08-05",
|
|
"02:26:2024-08-05",
|
|
"02:26:2024-12-24",
|
|
"02:26:2023-02-04",
|
|
"02:26:2022-07-06"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 121,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
7,
|
|
7,
|
|
7
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 55,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
8,
|
|
8,
|
|
8
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"02:56:2026-03-07",
|
|
"02:56:2025-05-30",
|
|
"02:56:2025-08-11",
|
|
"02:56:2024-04-12",
|
|
"02:56:2024-08-31",
|
|
"02:56:2023-03-16"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 121,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
7,
|
|
7,
|
|
7
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 55,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
13,
|
|
12,
|
|
11
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"03:56:2026-05-09",
|
|
"03:56:2025-07-19",
|
|
"03:56:2025-10-24",
|
|
"03:56:2024-04-20",
|
|
"03:56:2024-09-13",
|
|
"03:56:2023-06-08"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
27,
|
|
27,
|
|
23
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
28,
|
|
27,
|
|
23
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"22:20:2017-01-27",
|
|
"22:20:2017-04-14",
|
|
"22:20:2017-06-07",
|
|
"22:20:2017-10-25",
|
|
"22:20:2016-01-05",
|
|
"22:20:2016-01-05"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
27,
|
|
27,
|
|
23
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
27,
|
|
27,
|
|
23
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"22:10:2017-01-31",
|
|
"22:10:2017-03-18",
|
|
"22:10:2017-06-04",
|
|
"22:10:2017-07-28",
|
|
"22:10:2015-10-08",
|
|
"22:10:2016-02-25"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
26,
|
|
25,
|
|
25
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
26,
|
|
25,
|
|
25
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"22:20:2017-01-27",
|
|
"22:20:2017-04-14",
|
|
"22:20:2017-06-07",
|
|
"22:20:2017-10-25",
|
|
"22:20:2016-01-05",
|
|
"22:20:2016-01-05"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
26,
|
|
25,
|
|
25
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 11,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
25,
|
|
25,
|
|
25
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"22:10:2017-01-31",
|
|
"22:10:2017-03-18",
|
|
"22:10:2017-06-04",
|
|
"22:10:2017-07-28",
|
|
"22:10:2015-10-08",
|
|
"22:10:2016-02-25"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 103,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
6,
|
|
6,
|
|
6
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 103,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
6,
|
|
6,
|
|
6
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"22:20:2017-03-01",
|
|
"22:20:2017-11-01",
|
|
"22:20:2015-03-15",
|
|
"22:20:2014-08-28",
|
|
"22:20:2013-02-28",
|
|
"22:20:2013-02-28"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "chad_everett_1937_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 103,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
6,
|
|
6,
|
|
6
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 103,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
7,
|
|
7,
|
|
7
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"21:20:2017-03-01",
|
|
"21:20:2017-11-01",
|
|
"21:20:2015-06-29",
|
|
"21:20:2014-06-13",
|
|
"21:20:2013-04-18",
|
|
"21:20:2013-06-30"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": true,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
19,
|
|
19,
|
|
18
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
18,
|
|
18
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"13:15:2024-09-16",
|
|
"13:15:2025-04-10",
|
|
"13:15:2025-10-14",
|
|
"13:15:2024-09-23",
|
|
"13:15:2025-04-10",
|
|
"13:15:2024-03-13"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": true,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
19,
|
|
19,
|
|
18
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 21,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
18,
|
|
18,
|
|
18
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"13:05:2026-04-24",
|
|
"13:05:2026-06-10",
|
|
"13:05:2026-11-21",
|
|
"13:05:2024-10-10",
|
|
"13:05:2026-06-10",
|
|
"13:05:2025-09-25"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": true,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"13:15:2026-02-04",
|
|
"13:15:2026-04-01",
|
|
"13:15:2026-12-01",
|
|
"13:15:2025-11-21",
|
|
"13:15:2026-04-01",
|
|
"13:15:2025-10-14"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": true,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
16,
|
|
16,
|
|
15
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"13:45:2026-08-01",
|
|
"13:45:2026-09-26",
|
|
"13:45:2026-12-01",
|
|
"13:45:2025-02-13",
|
|
"13:45:2025-05-08",
|
|
"13:45:2024-04-10"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 51,
|
|
"tied_for_first": true,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
14,
|
|
14,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 51,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
14,
|
|
14,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"13:15:2026-02-01",
|
|
"13:15:2026-04-01",
|
|
"13:15:2026-12-01",
|
|
"13:15:2025-02-01",
|
|
"13:15:2026-04-01",
|
|
"13:15:2025-10-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 51,
|
|
"tied_for_first": true,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
14,
|
|
14,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 51,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
14,
|
|
14,
|
|
14
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"14:05:2026-02-01",
|
|
"14:05:2026-04-01",
|
|
"14:05:2026-12-01",
|
|
"14:05:2025-02-01",
|
|
"14:05:2020-04-10",
|
|
"14:05:2025-10-01"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 5,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
50,
|
|
50
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 5,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
50,
|
|
50
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"20:00:2005-01-07",
|
|
"20:00:2005-02-06",
|
|
"20:00:2005-03-10",
|
|
"20:00:2005-04-07",
|
|
"20:00:2000-11-30",
|
|
"20:00:2005-05-11"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 10,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 5,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
50,
|
|
50
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 5,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
50,
|
|
50
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"20:04:2004-12-21",
|
|
"20:04:2005-02-21",
|
|
"20:04:2005-03-21",
|
|
"20:04:2005-04-24",
|
|
"20:04:2005-04-16",
|
|
"20:04:2005-05-24"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 59,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
11,
|
|
11,
|
|
9
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 31,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
22,
|
|
22,
|
|
19
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"20:00:1999-01-18",
|
|
"20:00:2005-09-01",
|
|
"20:00:1999-01-18",
|
|
"20:00:1998-11-12",
|
|
"20:00:2004-09-18",
|
|
"20:00:2004-12-16"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 30,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 59,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
11,
|
|
11,
|
|
9
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 61,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
9,
|
|
9,
|
|
8
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"19:30:1997-11-11",
|
|
"19:30:2005-09-01",
|
|
"19:30:1997-11-11",
|
|
"19:30:1999-01-15",
|
|
"19:30:2005-01-07",
|
|
"19:30:2005-03-08"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "truth",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 17,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
23,
|
|
23,
|
|
19
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 13,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 1,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
28,
|
|
27,
|
|
23
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"20:00:2005-01-07",
|
|
"20:00:2005-02-06",
|
|
"20:00:2005-04-07",
|
|
"20:00:2005-05-11",
|
|
"20:00:2005-06-22",
|
|
"20:00:2005-07-28"
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout",
|
|
"radius": 60,
|
|
"direction": "opposite",
|
|
"events_needed": null,
|
|
"windows": 6,
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"after_six": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 17,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
23,
|
|
23,
|
|
19
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"final": {
|
|
"met": false,
|
|
"width": 13,
|
|
"tied_for_first": false,
|
|
"gap": 0,
|
|
"percents": [
|
|
27,
|
|
27,
|
|
23
|
|
]
|
|
},
|
|
"injected": [
|
|
"20:16:2004-11-17",
|
|
"20:16:2005-01-29",
|
|
"20:16:2005-04-03",
|
|
"20:16:2005-04-15",
|
|
"20:16:2005-06-01",
|
|
"20:16:2005-06-01"
|
|
]
|
|
}
|
|
],
|
|
"errors": []
|
|
}
|