Jyotisha/references/real_case_calibration/replay_manifest_probe3_v2.json

{
  "schema_version": "2.0",
  "status": "ready",
  "case_schema": "references/real_case_calibration/catalog.schema.json",
  "selection_policy": {
    "batch_role": "independent_three_case_probe_not_used_for_v2_design",
    "birth_time_minimum": "Rodden AA",
    "event_source_minimum": "primary",
    "domains": {"career": 2, "marriage": 1},
    "frozen_rule_version": "v2",
    "privacy": "public_figures_only_no_user_birth_data"
  },
  "runtime_boundary": "Independent positive-event probe using frozen V2. Three cases are descriptive only and cannot estimate accuracy or justify rule tuning.",
  "cases": [
    {
      "case_id": "trump_inauguration_2017",
      "subject": {
        "name": "Donald Trump",
        "year": 1946,
        "month": 6,
        "day": 14,
        "hour": 10,
        "minute": 54,
        "lat": 40.7,
        "lon": -73.8164,
        "tz": -4.0,
        "node_mode": "mean",
        "birth_source": {
          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Trump,_Donald",
          "source_grade": "primary",
          "time_accuracy_rating": "AA",
          "evidence_basis": "BC/BR in hand"
        }
      },
      "source": {
        "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Trump,_Donald",
        "source_grade": "primary",
        "license_or_quote_boundary": "facts_and_short_summary_only"
      },
      "chart_signature": {
        "benchmark_role": "independent_probe_public_power_event",
        "external_oracle_status": "pending"
      },
      "event_outcomes": [
        {
          "event_type": "career_status",
          "event_date": "2017-01-20",
          "domain": "career",
          "expected_label": "career_status",
          "outcome": "Sworn in as President of the United States",
          "source_excerpt_note": "The official 58th inaugural ceremonies record President Donald J. Trump on January 20, 2017.",
          "source": {
            "url": "https://www.inaugural.senate.gov/58th-inaugural-ceremonies/",
            "source_grade": "primary"
          }
        }
      ],
      "similarity": {"score": 0.0, "matching_factors": ["independent_probe"], "dissimilar_factors": []},
      "replay": {
        "outcome_replay_status": "replayed",
        "do_not_use_for_prediction": false,
        "report_path": "docs/benchmark/public_real_case_probe3_v2_2026_07_11.json"
      }
    },
    {
      "case_id": "dicaprio_oscar_2016",
      "subject": {
        "name": "Leonardo DiCaprio",
        "year": 1974,
        "month": 11,
        "day": 11,
        "hour": 2,
        "minute": 47,
        "lat": 34.05,
        "lon": -118.25,
        "tz": -8.0,
        "node_mode": "mean",
        "birth_source": {
          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/DiCaprio,_Leonardo",
          "source_grade": "primary",
          "time_accuracy_rating": "AA",
          "evidence_basis": "BC/BR in hand"
        }
      },
      "source": {
        "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/DiCaprio,_Leonardo",
        "source_grade": "primary",
        "license_or_quote_boundary": "facts_and_short_summary_only"
      },
      "chart_signature": {
        "benchmark_role": "independent_probe_award_event",
        "external_oracle_status": "pending"
      },
      "event_outcomes": [
        {
          "event_type": "career_status",
          "event_date": "2016-02-28",
          "domain": "career",
          "expected_label": "career_status",
          "outcome": "Won the Academy Award for Actor in a Leading Role",
          "source_excerpt_note": "The Academy records Leonardo DiCaprio as the leading-actor winner at the ceremony on February 28, 2016.",
          "source": {
            "url": "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2016",
            "source_grade": "primary"
          }
        }
      ],
      "similarity": {"score": 0.0, "matching_factors": ["independent_probe"], "dissimilar_factors": []},
      "replay": {
        "outcome_replay_status": "replayed",
        "do_not_use_for_prediction": false,
        "report_path": "docs/benchmark/public_real_case_probe3_v2_2026_07_11.json"
      }
    },
    {
      "case_id": "markle_marriage_2018",
      "subject": {
        "name": "Meghan Markle",
        "year": 1981,
        "month": 8,
        "day": 4,
        "hour": 4,
        "minute": 46,
        "lat": 34.2,
        "lon": -118.6,
        "tz": -7.0,
        "node_mode": "mean",
        "birth_source": {
          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Markle,_Meghan",
          "source_grade": "primary",
          "time_accuracy_rating": "AA",
          "evidence_basis": "BC/BR in hand"
        }
      },
      "source": {
        "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Markle,_Meghan",
        "source_grade": "primary",
        "license_or_quote_boundary": "facts_and_short_summary_only"
      },
      "chart_signature": {
        "benchmark_role": "independent_probe_legal_marriage",
        "external_oracle_status": "pending"
      },
      "event_outcomes": [
        {
          "event_type": "legal_marriage",
          "event_date": "2018-05-19",
          "domain": "marriage",
          "expected_label": "legal_marriage",
          "outcome": "Married Prince Harry at St George's Chapel",
          "source_excerpt_note": "The Royal Family records the wedding of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle on 19 May 2018.",
          "source": {
            "url": "https://www.royal.uk/wedding-duke-and-duchess-sussex",
            "source_grade": "primary"
          }
        }
      ],
      "similarity": {"score": 0.0, "matching_factors": ["independent_probe"], "dissimilar_factors": []},
      "replay": {
        "outcome_replay_status": "replayed",
        "do_not_use_for_prediction": false,
        "report_path": "docs/benchmark/public_real_case_probe3_v2_2026_07_11.json"
      }
    }
  ]
}