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Jyotisha/docs/research/varga_sensitivity_rerun_2026_09_26.json
T
Jesse_ChenandClaude Opus 5.5 0f5442cea2 research(rectification): offline R1/R2/R3 — answer-flip tolerance, V1/V2 rerun, dasha shift arithmetic 
- R1: flipping 1 answer keeps truth in range 98-100% but cuts head hit by
  a third or more; 2 flips squeeze truth out in 7-10% of ±30/±60 replays
  (two flips = 8 points = SEPARATION_LEAD).
- R2: weights do apply (research scorer == production at V0); V1/V2 are
  identity at ±30/±60 by construction and leave six-question metrics
  unchanged at ±10 -> no_benefit (measured). Supplementary V1n does not
  pass the gate.
- R3: boundary shift is ~3.8 days/minute (1.3-5.9), not 1.1; the 45-day
  gate is ~8-34 minutes. The _representative_pairs hypothesis is refuted
  (all-pairs adds no dated probes); the bottleneck is monthly evaluation.
  New finding recorded as BUG-1048 (investigating): _boundary_windows
  year-straddle exemption and positional zip misalignment bypass the gate.
- Dated errata appended (no deletions) to the 09-14/09-16 briefs and
  research docs; README board row -> 待验收. No production code, scoring,
  thresholds, gates or Skill changed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017eEAG8HD3mm8gsKXgk8uU8
2026-09-26 14:47:48 +08:00

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"D9": 120
},
"V2_changing": [
"D10",
"D11",
"D12",
"D2",
"D24",
"D3",
"D30",
"D4",
"D5",
"D7",
"D9"
],
"V2_dropped_domain_prefixes": {}
},
"measured": {
"V0": {
"top1": true,
"coverage": true,
"width": 31,
"engine_top1": true,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 4
},
"V1": {
"top1": true,
"coverage": true,
"width": 31,
"engine_top1": true,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 4
},
"V2": {
"top1": true,
"coverage": true,
"width": 31,
"engine_top1": true,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 4
},
"V1n": {
"top1": true,
"coverage": true,
"width": 31,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 4
}
}
},
{
"case_id": "bernd_eichinger_1949_aa_v4_holdout",
"radius": 60,
"proof": {
"production_vs_V0_policy": {
"candidates": 61,
"changed": 0,
"max_abs": 0.0,
"top_changed": false
},
"V1_vs_V0": {
"candidates": 61,
"changed": 0,
"max_abs": 0.0,
"top_changed": false
},
"V2_vs_V0": {
"candidates": 61,
"changed": 0,
"max_abs": 0.0,
"top_changed": false
},
"V1n_vs_V0": {
"candidates": 61,
"changed": 61,
"max_abs": 2.3907,
"top_changed": false
},
"V0_varga_hits": {
"D10": 457,
"D12": 690,
"D24": 473,
"D3": 1015,
"D30": 35,
"D5": 554,
"D7": 621,
"D9": 281
},
"V2_changing": [
"D10",
"D11",
"D12",
"D2",
"D24",
"D3",
"D30",
"D4",
"D5",
"D7",
"D9"
],
"V2_dropped_domain_prefixes": {}
},
"measured": {
"V0": {
"top1": true,
"coverage": true,
"width": 51,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 4
},
"V1": {
"top1": true,
"coverage": true,
"width": 51,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 4
},
"V2": {
"top1": true,
"coverage": true,
"width": 51,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 4
},
"V1n": {
"top1": true,
"coverage": true,
"width": 111,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 4
}
}
},
{
"case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout",
"radius": 10,
"proof": {
"production_vs_V0_policy": {
"candidates": 11,
"changed": 0,
"max_abs": 0.0,
"top_changed": false
},
"V1_vs_V0": {
"candidates": 11,
"changed": 0,
"max_abs": 0.0,
"top_changed": false
},
"V2_vs_V0": {
"candidates": 11,
"changed": 0,
"max_abs": 0.0,
"top_changed": false
},
"V1n_vs_V0": {
"candidates": 11,
"changed": 11,
"max_abs": 0.6546,
"top_changed": false
},
"V0_varga_hits": {
"D10": 118,
"D30": 11,
"D4": 154,
"D9": 27
},
"V2_changing": [
"D10",
"D11",
"D12",
"D24",
"D30",
"D4",
"D5",
"D7",
"D9"
],
"V2_dropped_domain_prefixes": {}
},
"measured": {
"V0": {
"top1": false,
"coverage": true,
"width": 5,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 6,
"refresh": 5
},
"V1": {
"top1": false,
"coverage": true,
"width": 5,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 6,
"refresh": 5
},
"V2": {
"top1": false,
"coverage": true,
"width": 5,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 6,
"refresh": 5
},
"V1n": {
"top1": false,
"coverage": true,
"width": 5,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 6,
"refresh": 5
}
}
},
{
"case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout",
"radius": 30,
"proof": {
"production_vs_V0_policy": {
"candidates": 31,
"changed": 0,
"max_abs": 0.0,
"top_changed": false
},
"V1_vs_V0": {
"candidates": 31,
"changed": 0,
"max_abs": 0.0,
"top_changed": false
},
"V2_vs_V0": {
"candidates": 31,
"changed": 0,
"max_abs": 0.0,
"top_changed": false
},
"V1n_vs_V0": {
"candidates": 31,
"changed": 31,
"max_abs": 0.6546,
"top_changed": false
},
"V0_varga_hits": {
"D10": 559,
"D30": 18,
"D4": 345,
"D9": 110
},
"V2_changing": [
"D10",
"D11",
"D12",
"D24",
"D3",
"D30",
"D4",
"D5",
"D7",
"D9"
],
"V2_dropped_domain_prefixes": {}
},
"measured": {
"V0": {
"top1": false,
"coverage": true,
"width": 59,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 7
},
"V1": {
"top1": false,
"coverage": true,
"width": 59,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 7
},
"V2": {
"top1": false,
"coverage": true,
"width": 59,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 7
},
"V1n": {
"top1": false,
"coverage": true,
"width": 59,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 7
}
}
},
{
"case_id": "iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout",
"radius": 60,
"proof": {
"production_vs_V0_policy": {
"candidates": 61,
"changed": 0,
"max_abs": 0.0,
"top_changed": false
},
"V1_vs_V0": {
"candidates": 61,
"changed": 0,
"max_abs": 0.0,
"top_changed": false
},
"V2_vs_V0": {
"candidates": 61,
"changed": 0,
"max_abs": 0.0,
"top_changed": false
},
"V1n_vs_V0": {
"candidates": 61,
"changed": 57,
"max_abs": 3.8397,
"top_changed": false
},
"V0_varga_hits": {
"D10": 1257,
"D30": 42,
"D4": 653,
"D9": 251
},
"V2_changing": [
"D10",
"D11",
"D12",
"D2",
"D24",
"D3",
"D30",
"D4",
"D5",
"D7",
"D9"
],
"V2_dropped_domain_prefixes": {}
},
"measured": {
"V0": {
"top1": false,
"coverage": true,
"width": 17,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 6
},
"V1": {
"top1": false,
"coverage": true,
"width": 17,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 6
},
"V2": {
"top1": false,
"coverage": true,
"width": 17,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 6
},
"V1n": {
"top1": false,
"coverage": true,
"width": 17,
"engine_top1": false,
"probes": 8,
"refresh": 6
}
}
}
],
"errors": [],
"command": "python3 scripts/research/varga_sensitivity_rerun.py"
}
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