Public Real-Case Jyotish Benchmark - 2026-07-11

Result

Ten public cases with Astro-Databank Rodden A/AA birth times were replayed through the local evidence stack. No user birth data or private feedback was used.

Metric	Result	Boundary
Cases / dated events	10 / 10	5 career, 5 marriage
Positive-event activation recall	80%	8 of 10 known events reached weak or strong activation
Strong hits	30%	3 of 10
Exact-label rate	30%	Weak domain activation is not exact event classification
Blocked local replays	0%	All lightweight local evidence packets completed
Balanced accuracy / specificity	blocked	No independently verified negative-control dates

This is not scientific predictive accuracy. It is a positive-event technical activation replay. Full machine output: docs/benchmark/public_real_case_benchmark_2026_07_11.json.

Cases

Case	Event	Domain	Rodden	Result	Score
Steve Jobs	iPhone introduction, 2007-01-09	career	AA	weak	5
Barack Obama	presidential election, 2008-11-04	career	AA	miss	1
Arnold Schwarzenegger	California recall election, 2003-10-07	career	A	miss	2
Meryl Streep	Best Actress Oscar, 1983-04-11	career	AA	weak	5
Jennifer Aniston	lead-actress Emmy, 2002-09-22	career	AA	weak	5
Prince William	legal marriage, 2011-04-29	marriage	AA	weak	6
Angelina Jolie	legal marriage, 2014-08-23	marriage	AA	weak	4
Frida Kahlo	legal marriage, 1929-08-21	marriage	AA	strong	7
Snoop Dogg	legal marriage, 1997-06-14	marriage	AA	strong	10
Walt Disney	legal marriage, 1925-07-13	marriage	A	strong	8

Sources

Birth times: Jobs, Obama, Schwarzenegger, Streep, Aniston, Prince William, Jolie, Kahlo, Snoop Dogg, Disney.

Event dates: Apple Newsroom, FEC Federal Elections 2008, California Secretary of State, Oscars 1983, Television Academy 2002, Royal Family wedding record, Angelina Jolie biography, Frida Kahlo biography, Snoop Dogg biography, Walt Disney Family Museum.

Pre-Registered Replay Logic

D1 event-house ownership and occupation.
D10 for career; D9 for marriage.
A10 for career; UL for marriage.
Functional Benefic/Malefic by Lagna.
Vimshottari Mahadasha and Antardasha at the event date.
Narayana Dasha at event age.
Jupiter-Saturn Double Transit PAC for house 10 or 7.

Thresholds were frozen before the batch run: >=7 strong, 4-6 weak, <4 miss.

Findings

Marriage timing is stronger in this sample: 5/5 activation recall, including three strong hits.
Career timing is weaker: 3/5 activation recall and no strong hit. Public-office elevation is not captured well by direct 10/6/9/11 ownership alone.
General missing career layers: D10 Lagna/10L hierarchy, A10 sign activation, Amatyakaraka, Raja-yoga activation, Rahu/Ketu dispositor results, and Varshaphala/Tajika annual confirmation.
Double Transit is confirmation, not a standalone verdict.
80% must not be advertised as predictive accuracy: five hits are weak, exact-label rate is 30%, and no negative controls were tested.
Do not tune thresholds on these same ten cases. Freeze v2 rules, then validate on a new holdout batch.

Technique Audit

Technique	Status	Notes
D1	used	All 10 cases
D9 / D10	used	Domain-specific
UL / A10	used	Lord linkage included
Functional Benefic/Malefic	used	Lagna-specific roles retained
Vimshottari MD/AD	used	Event-date boundaries
Narayana Dasha	used	Event-age sign/lord
Double Transit PAC	used	House 7 or 10
MEVG / Global Web Evidence	used	Astro-Databank plus independent event sources
Real Case Calibration	used	10 structured cases; positive events only
VedAstro official raw	blocked	`official_snapshot_budget_exhausted`
PyJHora / JHora parity	blocked	Missing canonical fixture; JHora automation absent
jyotishganit	partial	Importable readiness only; not event-timing oracle

Next Holdout Design

Add 10 new cases not used here: 5 public-status career events and 5 marriages.
Add sourced negative-control windows to estimate specificity and balanced accuracy.
Freeze v2 career rules before holdout: node dispositor, D10 10L, A10 transit/dasha, AmK, Raja yoga, annual chart.
Keep v1 and v2 reports side by side; reject rules that improve training cases but fail holdout.

5.6 KiB Raw Blame History