research(d60): G2 not evaluable, G5 trips the noise floor (BUG-1497, issue #149)
The registered same-day answer policy needs an event dated on the birth day; the v5 holdout has none in any of the 77 cases, so group B adds no question and is identical to group A. G2 is therefore not evaluable by construction, not a measured zero, and no placebo test has a lift to check. G5 is measurable and decisive: switching the ayanamsa from Raman to Lahiri, KP or True Chitra changes the ascendant D60 sign in 77 of 77 cases (100%, threshold 20%). Under the registered stop rule any minute-level wording is forbidden. Recommendation: do not adopt. D60 stays reference-only and the external copy does not claim seconds. BUG-1497 is closed_by_design; the mapping fix itself is BUG-1500 and already merged. Co-Authored-By: Grok (agent loop)
This commit is contained in:
jesse-ux
co-authored by
Grok (agent loop)
Grok (agent loop)
parent
c163a74934
commit
028992257b
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@@ -20465,18 +20465,18 @@
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- 修复版本：分支 `codex/rectification-recap-date-dup-20261028`。
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## BUG-1497 | D60 换格能不能帮生时校正，从没在已知出生时间的人身上测过
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- 状态：investigating
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- 状态：closed_by_design（设计上不做；D60 维持「只作参考」）
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- 首次发现 / 最近更新：2026-10-28 / 2026-10-29（issue #149，来源 #142 竞品宣传）
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- 影响面：生时校正的技法路由与对外文案。`skills/jyotish-birth-time-rectification/references/technique-routing.md` 现在写「D60 只作参考，不驱动结论」。
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- 现象：竞品宣传「证据够密时 D60 与纳迪分盘反向校准，收束时刻可以到秒」。纳迪那一半已在 BUG-1240 证伪（N3 ±10 窗口找回记录分钟 5/77，生产 25/77；N4 只换岁差 73/73 换段）；D60 这一半从未在 v5 77 例已知出生时间上检验。
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- 触发条件：用 D60 换格给候选分段打分，或对外宣称「到秒」。
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- 根因：未验证的技法被当成能力宣传；我方没有 D60 换格的评分实现，也没有对照实验。
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- 修复：（进行中）G1 第一次跑出 33/77，原因在生产 D60 映射（BUG-1500）。映射改对后重跑 G1：77/77 通过（`docs/research/d60_two_way_results_2026_10_29.json`，脚本 `scripts/research/d60_two_way_run.py`）。下一步按任务书先登记 G2–G5 的口径（换格题只认同日事件），再跑五门、安慰剂、端到端与 MEVG。结论出来前技法路由、对外文案都不动。
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- 验证：待研究单 `docs/tasks/TASK-rectification-d60-two-way-20261028.md` 的 G1–G5 全部有结论后回填；不过门就写 `closed_by_design` 并附对外口径。
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- 结论（研究单已做完）：G1 77/77 通过（BUG-1500 修好映射之后）。G2 按先登记口径**不可评估**：D60 换格题只认同日事件，v5 的 77 例里出生当天事件 0 件，B 组加不上任何判据、与 A 组相同。G3 平凡成立；G4 不适用。G5 触发上限：只换岁差（raman→lahiri / kp / true_citra），D60 上升格 77/77 全变（100%，阈值 20%）。因此**不做**：D60 不进校正判据，技法路由与文案不改；对外不出现「到秒 / 分钟级精确」，与 BUG-1240 同一口径。
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- 验证：报告 `docs/research/rectification_d60_two_way_2026_10_29.md`；结果 `docs/research/d60_two_way_results_2026_10_29.json`（G1）与 `docs/research/d60_two_way_g2_g5_results_2026_10_29.json`（G2 预检与 G5）；先登记 `docs/research/d60_two_way_preregistration_2026_10_28.json`。
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- 防复发：研究单写死「先登记再跑、真值不可见、必须有安慰剂、负结果照写」。
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- 关联：BUG-1240、BUG-560、BUG-1090、BUG-1091。
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- 复发自：无。
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- 修复版本：分支 `codex/rectification-d60-two-way-20261028`（研究单，未合入）。
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- 修复版本：无（closed_by_design；研究分支 `codex/rectification-d60-two-way-20261028`）。
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## BUG-1498 | staging 门禁 Python 快速门失败：`test_daily_starlanguage_does_not_eat_yesterday_cache` 网关调用 0 次
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@@ -0,0 +1,891 @@
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{
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"bug": "BUG-1497",
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"cases": [
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{
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"case_id": "albert_brooks_1947_aa_v4_holdout",
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"changes_true_citra": true,
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"d60_kp": 9,
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"d60_lahiri": 9,
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"d60_raman": 0,
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"d60_true_citra": 9,
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"events_same_day": 0
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},
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{
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"case_id": "andrew_windsor_1960_aa_v4_holdout",
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"changes_kp": true,
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"changes_lahiri": true,
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"changes_true_citra": true,
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"d60_kp": 3,
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"d60_lahiri": 3,
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"d60_raman": 6,
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"d60_true_citra": 3,
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"events_same_day": 0
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},
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{
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"case_id": "angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
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"changes_kp": true,
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"changes_true_citra": true,
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},
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{
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"case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
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},
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{
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},
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{
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"events_same_day": 0
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},
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{
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"case_id": "elizabeth_montgomery_1933_aa_v4_holdout",
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{
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{
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{
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},
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{
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},
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{
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"case_id": "albert_einstein_1879_aa_v5_holdout",
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{
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},
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{
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"case_id": "arthur_conan_doyle_1859_aa_v5_holdout",
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{
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},
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{
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"case_id": "ayrton_senna_1960_aa_v5_holdout",
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},
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{
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"case_id": "barbra_streisand_1942_aa_v5_holdout",
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},
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{
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"case_id": "beyonce_1981_aa_v5_holdout",
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},
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{
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"case_id": "bob_dylan_1941_aa_v5_holdout",
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"changes_lahiri": true,
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"d60_true_citra": 1,
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"events_same_day": 0
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},
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{
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"case_id": "brigitte_bardot_1934_aa_v5_holdout",
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"changes_kp": true,
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"changes_lahiri": true,
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"changes_true_citra": true,
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"d60_kp": 4,
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"d60_true_citra": 3,
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"events_same_day": 0
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},
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{
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"case_id": "bruce_lee_1940_aa_v5_holdout",
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"changes_kp": true,
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"changes_lahiri": true,
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"changes_true_citra": true,
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"d60_kp": 9,
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"d60_lahiri": 9,
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"d60_raman": 0,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 9,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "catherine_deneuve_1943_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 8,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 8,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 11,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 8,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "charles_de_gaulle_1890_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 4,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 4,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 8,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 4,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "cher_1946_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 9,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 9,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 11,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 9,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "clint_eastwood_1930_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 9,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 9,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 0,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 9,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "daniel_barenboim_1942_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 2,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 2,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 5,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 2,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "diane_cilento_1932_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 11,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 11,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 2,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 11,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "dingdong_dantes_1980_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 6,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 6,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 9,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 6,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "donald_trump_1946_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 5,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 5,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 8,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 5,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "edith_piaf_1915_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 9,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 8,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 11,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 8,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "elvis_presley_1935_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 10,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 9,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 0,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 9,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "francois_hollande_1954_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 6,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 6,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 9,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 6,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "frida_kahlo_1907_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 6,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 6,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 8,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 6,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "george_w_bush_1946_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 7,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 6,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 9,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 7,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "gisele_bundchen_1980_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 4,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 4,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 7,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 4,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "gustavo_kuerten_1976_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 5,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 5,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 8,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 5,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "imelda_marcos_1929_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 9,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 9,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 0,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 9,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "janis_joplin_1943_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 3,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 2,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 5,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 2,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "jennifer_aniston_1969_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 8,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 8,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 11,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 8,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "jimi_hendrix_1942_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 11,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 11,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 2,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 11,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "johnny_depp_1963_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 5,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 5,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 8,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 5,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "judy_garland_1922_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 2,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 2,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 5,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 2,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "juscelino_kubitschek_1902_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 4,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 3,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 6,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 3,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "kamala_harris_1964_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 4,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 4,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 7,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 4,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "leonardo_dicaprio_1974_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 0,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 0,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 3,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 0,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "lionel_messi_1987_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 7,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 7,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 10,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 7,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "lou_diamond_phillips_1962_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 4,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 4,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 7,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 4,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "manuel_puig_1932_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 4,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 4,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 7,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 4,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "marilyn_monroe_1926_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 7,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 7,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 10,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 7,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "meryl_streep_1949_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 10,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 10,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 1,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 10,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "miley_cyrus_1992_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 10,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 10,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 1,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 10,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "muhammad_ali_1942_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 8,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 7,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 10,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 7,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "nicolas_sarkozy_1955_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 10,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 10,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 1,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 10,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "pele_1940_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 1,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 0,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 3,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 0,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "piolo_pascual_1977_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 3,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 3,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 5,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 3,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "prince_1958_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 5,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 4,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 7,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 4,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "rafael_nadal_1986_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 2,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 2,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 5,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 2,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "rudy_fernandez_1952_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 0,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 11,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 2,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 0,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "salvador_dali_1904_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 1,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 1,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 5,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 1,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "serena_williams_1981_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 7,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 7,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 10,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 7,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "silvio_santos_1930_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 8,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 7,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 10,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 7,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "sophia_loren_1934_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 9,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 9,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 11,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 9,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "venus_williams_1980_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 9,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 8,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 11,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 8,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "vincent_van_gogh_1853_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 0,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 0,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 4,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 0,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "whitney_houston_1963_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 4,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 4,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 7,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 4,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"case_id": "zinedine_zidane_1972_aa_v5_holdout",
|
||||
"changes_kp": true,
|
||||
"changes_lahiri": true,
|
||||
"changes_true_citra": true,
|
||||
"d60_kp": 0,
|
||||
"d60_lahiri": 11,
|
||||
"d60_raman": 2,
|
||||
"d60_true_citra": 11,
|
||||
"events_same_day": 0
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"dataset": {
|
||||
"cases": 77,
|
||||
"path": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v5.json",
|
||||
"sha256": "ab365a3e3f4953d4b538f2c0889dc98ab89444a28340c3a7b29e2a864cdd687a"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"g2_precheck": {
|
||||
"cases_with_same_day_events": 0,
|
||||
"reason": "the registered answer policy needs an event dated on the same day as the D60 boundary (the birth date); the v5 holdout has none, so group B adds no question and is identical to group A",
|
||||
"same_day_events": 0,
|
||||
"usable_d60_boundary_probes": 0,
|
||||
"verdict": "not_evaluable_by_construction"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"g3": {
|
||||
"reason": "B adds no elimination, so the delivered range equals A and truth-in-range cannot drop",
|
||||
"verdict": "trivially_equal"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"g4": {
|
||||
"reason": "no B-minus-A lift exists to test against placebos",
|
||||
"verdict": "not_applicable"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"g5": {
|
||||
"any_above_threshold": true,
|
||||
"baseline": "raman",
|
||||
"changes": {
|
||||
"kp": 77,
|
||||
"lahiri": 77,
|
||||
"true_citra": 77
|
||||
},
|
||||
"share": {
|
||||
"kp": 1.0,
|
||||
"lahiri": 1.0,
|
||||
"true_citra": 1.0
|
||||
},
|
||||
"threshold": 0.2
|
||||
},
|
||||
"issue": 149,
|
||||
"preregistration": "docs/research/d60_two_way_preregistration_2026_10_28.json",
|
||||
"scope": "d60_two_way_g2_g5",
|
||||
"task": "docs/tasks/TASK-rectification-d60-two-way-20261028.md"
|
||||
}
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
|
||||
# D60 换格要不要进生时校正：双向对比报告（2026-10-29，issue #149）
|
||||
|
||||
- 任务书：`docs/tasks/TASK-rectification-d60-two-way-20261028.md`；修复单 `docs/tasks/TASK-rectification-d60-fix-20261029.md`
|
||||
- 先登记：`docs/research/d60_two_way_preregistration_2026_10_28.json`（commit 早于任何计分）
|
||||
- 数据：v5 77 例、964 件事（`minute_rectification_holdout_v5.json`，sha256 `ab365a3e…`）
|
||||
- 口径：ayanamsa raman、node mean、候选步长 2 分钟、半径 ±10 / ±30 / ±60
|
||||
|
||||
## 结论表
|
||||
|
||||
| 门 | 结果 | 关键数字 | 对照 |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| G1 三引擎对账 | **过** | 77/77 与 PyJHora 一致 | 修映射前 33/77（BUG-1500） |
|
||||
| G2 找回记录分钟 | **不可评估**（按登记口径） | 可用 D60 换格题 **0 条**：77 例里没有一件事与出生同日 | B 组与 A 组完全相同，提升恒为 0，不是「测出来没有帮助」 |
|
||||
| G3 不伤真值 | 平凡成立 | B 组不淘汰任何候选，区间与 A 相同 | A 基线 76/77 |
|
||||
| G4 安慰剂 | **不适用** | 没有可检验的提升 | — |
|
||||
| G5 噪声地板 | **触发上限** | 换岁差后 D60 上升格 **77/77 全变**（Lahiri / KP / True Chitra 都是 100%，阈值 20%） | — |
|
||||
|
||||
**产品结论：不做。** 维持「D60 只作参考，不驱动结论」；对外文案不得出现「到秒」「分钟级精确」，与 BUG-1240 的纳迪结论同一口径。
|
||||
|
||||
## 为什么 G2 是「不可评估」而不是「没有帮助」
|
||||
|
||||
登记的口径（任务书 §3.3）是：每次 D60 换格当一题「事件在换格之前还是之后」，**只有事件日期与换格同一天才作答**，否则跳过、不淘汰。D60 换格发生在出生当天，因此只有出生当天的事件能回答这类题。v5 的 77 例、964 件事里，出生当天的事件是 **0** 件（逐例核对，见结果 JSON）。于是 B 组一条额外判据都加不上，A、B 两组逐字节相同。
|
||||
|
||||
这条限制来自证据格式，不是 D60 本身：v5 只记录日期（244 件日精度、其余到月或年），没有当天时刻。若要用 D60 换格判分钟，需要带时刻的事件，或另一套能给出时刻的证据；这批数据给不了。
|
||||
|
||||
## G5：D60 在分钟尺度上完全取决于岁差
|
||||
|
||||
同一批盘、同一个出生时刻，只换岁差（raman → lahiri / kp / true_citra），上升的 D60 星座 **77 例全部改变**（100%，阈值 20%）。换句话说，D60 上升格在 2 分钟量级上本来就会随口径翻格；任何「D60 把关可以把时间收到秒」的说法，在这个噪声地板上站不住。
|
||||
|
||||
外部资料的说法与此一致：D60 每格 0.5°、上升约每 2 分钟换一格，记录时间按 5 分钟取整就跨两三个 D60 上升格（VedaCharts、Nyovah，见 MEVG）。他们给的也是「出生时间要准到分钟」，不是「用 D60 反推能到秒」。
|
||||
|
||||
## 模型参与的端到端对比
|
||||
|
||||
`not_started`。按任务书的让步顺序在 G4 之后，而 G2/G4 没有可评估的提升；跑 40 场完整对话只会得到 A、B 逐字节相同的结果，不再消耗模型预算。
|
||||
|
||||
## MEVG（AGENTS.md §3）
|
||||
|
||||
- **MEVG / Global Web Evidence**：`used`。
|
||||
- **A（经典原文 / 可复现数据）**：BPHS 的 Shashtyamsa 规则（每星座 60 份、从本星座起算）与 Jataka Parijata / Bhavartha Ratnakara 的分盘权重，是可核对的原典；本仓的 12×60 段枚举与 PyJHora 对账属于可复现数据。原典只定义了几何与命名，**没有**「D60 可把出生时间收到秒」的判据。
|
||||
- **B（有案例的专业说明）**：[VedaCharts 的 D60 指南](https://vedacharts.com/learn/articles/shastiamsa-d60-subtle-karma) 明确「每格 0.5°、约 2 分钟换格，5 分钟取整的出生时间不可靠」；[Nyovah 的 D60 页](https://www.nyovah.com/learn/shashtiamsa-d60.html) 用自家引擎做了 24 小时逐分钟扫描，量到上升每分钟 0.25°、约 2 分钟换格，并明确说**不**把 D60 喂给问答模型，因为两分钟误差就会翻盘。两者都把「需要准到分钟」当成前提，没有给出「能收到秒」的证据。
|
||||
- **C（无依据的宣传）**：竞品「证据够密时 D60 与纳迪反向校准、收束可到秒」——无可复现数据、无案例、无算法说明，归 C。纳迪那一半已在 BUG-1240 证伪（N3 找回记录分钟 5/77、N4 换岁差 73/73 换段）。
|
||||
- 冲突仲裁：B 类来源给的是「D60 需要准到分钟」而 C 类结论是「D60 反推能到秒」；前者有测量，后者没有，按有测量的一方取舍，并降级 C 类结论。
|
||||
- **Real Case Calibration**：`used`。v5 77 例、964 件事，G1 77/77；G2 因证据格式不可评估；G5 100% 翻格。
|
||||
|
||||
## 事后（post-hoc，不参与判门）
|
||||
|
||||
- 查了「如果放宽成『事件日期与换格日期至少差一天就作答』会怎样」：那样每条换格题都会被答成「事件在之后」，把窗口切掉一半且与真值无关，属于一边倒淘汰，因此不把它当结果。这一条写在先登记文件之后，只作解释。
|
||||
- 前端 `report-density-fictional-engine.json` 里仍有旧 D60 定义字符串的同类问题（与映射无关），留给前端轮次。
|
||||
|
||||
## 建议
|
||||
|
||||
1. 不做：D60 不进校正判据，不改技法路由，不加「到秒」文案。
|
||||
2. 如果产品仍想验证 D60，需要先有「带时刻的事件」数据；用现行 v5 只能重复本次的「不可评估」结论。
|
||||
3. BUG-1497 记 `closed_by_design`，附对外口径；BUG-1500 已 resolved（映射修正，独立部署）。
|
||||
|
||||
## 复跑
|
||||
|
||||
```bash
|
||||
export PYTHONHASHSEED=0
|
||||
python scripts/research/d60_two_way_run.py # G1，写 docs/research/d60_two_way_results_2026_10_29.json
|
||||
python - <<'PY' # G2 预检 + G5，写 docs/research/d60_two_way_g2_g5_results_2026_10_29.json
|
||||
# 见 PROGRESS「第 2 次回报」一节的完整命令
|
||||
PY
|
||||
```
|
||||
@@ -76,3 +76,31 @@ G2–G5、模型端到端对比、MEVG、报告：全部 `not_started`（G1 不
|
||||
本轮没有跑：Python 快速门（留给验收）、前端（未改产品代码，但合同指针挪了，`rectification-confirmation-gate.test.ts` 的路径按前几轮先例改了）。
|
||||
|
||||
下一步（T5）：按任务书 §3.3 的口径先写先登记 JSON（G2–G5 规则、阈值、种子），commit 之后再在 v5 上跑计分。
|
||||
|
||||
## 第 2 次回报：G2–G5（2026-10-29）
|
||||
|
||||
先登记：`docs/research/d60_two_way_preregistration_2026_10_28.json`（单独 commit，早于任何计分）。口径按任务书 §3.3：D60 换格题只认同日事件，没有就跳过。
|
||||
|
||||
| 门 | 怎么跑 | 结果 |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| G2 预检（可用题数） | 逐例数「与出生同日的事件」 | 77/77 例都是 **0 件**（964 件事里 0 件）→ B 组加不上判据，与 A 组相同；按先登记文件记为 `not_evaluable_by_construction`，不伪装成「测出来没帮助」 |
|
||||
| G2 找回记录分钟 | 因上一条不适用 | 提升恒为 0，下界不 > 0，门不过（不可评估） |
|
||||
| G3 不伤真值 | 同上 | B 组不淘汰任何候选，区间与 A 相同（A 基线 76/77），平凡成立 |
|
||||
| G4 安慰剂 | 无提升可检验 | `not_applicable` |
|
||||
| G5 噪声地板 | 只换岁差，比较记录时刻的 D60 上升格 | raman→lahiri / kp / true_citra 三种换法都是 **77/77 改变（100%）**，阈值 20% → 触发；即使 G2–G4 全过也不得出现「到秒 / 分钟级精确」 |
|
||||
| 端到端对比 | 未跑 | 按让步顺序在 G4 之后；G2/G4 不可评估时不消耗 40 场模型对话 |
|
||||
| MEVG | 已做 | 见报告两行：A 类原典只给几何与命名；B 类两篇专业说明都要求「出生时间准到分钟」，并量到约 2 分钟换格；C 类「到秒」宣传无数据 |
|
||||
|
||||
结果 JSON：`docs/research/d60_two_way_g2_g5_results_2026_10_29.json`（逐例：同日事件数、四种岁差下的 D60 上升格）。报告：`docs/research/rectification_d60_two_way_2026_10_29.md`。
|
||||
|
||||
复跑（Windows 用 `.venv\Scripts\python`，先设 `PYTHONUTF8=1`、`PYTHONHASHSEED=0`）：
|
||||
|
||||
```powershell
|
||||
python scripts/research/d60_two_way_run.py
|
||||
# G2 预检 + G5：读 v5 逐例数同日事件、四种岁差各算一次 D60 上升格
|
||||
# （脚本逻辑见本轮提交；结果文件已入库，可逐字段核对）
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**结论**：不做。D60 不进校正判据，技法路由与对外文案不改；对外不出现「到秒 / 分钟级精确」。BUG-1497 记 `closed_by_design`。
|
||||
|
||||
**偏离**：任务书要求五门都跑；G2/G4 在登记口径下不可评估，按先登记文件的 stop rule 如实记录，不用放宽口径去凑数字；端到端对比按让步顺序未跑。用户可见代码本轮零改动。
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -37,7 +37,7 @@
|
||||
|
||||
| 任务书 | 进度 | 主题 | 状态 | 落点 |
|
||||
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|
||||
| `TASK-rectification-d60-two-way-20261028.md` | `PROGRESS-rectification-d60-two-way-20261028.md`（执行方写） | **D60 换格要不要进生时校正：双向对比（issue #149）**：纳迪 / D150 已在 BUG-1240 证伪，本单只测 D60。A 组生产 V9、B 组加 D60 换格判据，同一批 v5 77 例看「有没有帮助」和「有没有伤害」；先登记再跑，G1 三引擎对账、G2 找回记录分钟、G3 不伤真值、G4 安慰剂、G5 换岁差噪声地板；另做 20 例模型参与的端到端对话对比（报告项）。离线研究、生产零改动。预留 BUG-1497 | 进行中：G1 首次 33/77 → 修 D60 映射（BUG-1500）后 77/77 通过；G2–G5 等先登记后再跑 | 本地 Grok 执行 |
|
||||
| `TASK-rectification-d60-two-way-20261028.md` | `PROGRESS-rectification-d60-two-way-20261028.md`（执行方写） | **D60 换格要不要进生时校正：双向对比（issue #149）**：纳迪 / D150 已在 BUG-1240 证伪，本单只测 D60。A 组生产 V9、B 组加 D60 换格判据，同一批 v5 77 例看「有没有帮助」和「有没有伤害」；先登记再跑，G1 三引擎对账、G2 找回记录分钟、G3 不伤真值、G4 安慰剂、G5 换岁差噪声地板；另做 20 例模型参与的端到端对话对比（报告项）。离线研究、生产零改动。预留 BUG-1497 | 研究完成：G1 77/77；G2 按登记口径不可评估（0 条同日事件）；G5 换岁差 100% 翻格；结论不做（待验收） | 本地 Grok 执行 |
|
||||
| `TASK-rectification-explicit-open-20261023.md` | `PROGRESS-rectification-explicit-open-20261023.md` | **明说要校正只回一句话（issue #103）**：找会话直接读一张对服务角色撤权的表、必然失败被吞（真正进行中的也续不上）；`candidate_accepted` 被算作进行中挡住入口和提议卡；兜底只给一句话。产品选 C；只改入口口径、经 RPC 找会话、删兜底，不改共享状态集合、不动表。BUG-1423 | 已合入 staging | 分支 `codex/rectification-explicit-open-20261023` |
|
||||
| `TASK-chart-table-span-20261023.md` | `PROGRESS-chart-table-span-20261023.md` | **星盘页本命 / 月亮行星表挤进左栏（issue #102）**：#87 给表包了 `ChartSymbolHelp` 后跨栏规则失配；根因修法是 `VedicLayout` 用固定整行容器承载表格，跨栏只认容器；加结构断言防复发。BUG-1422 | 已合入 staging | 分支 `codex/chart-table-span-20261023` |
|
||||
| `TASK-ui-kit-migration-20261023.md` | `PROGRESS-ui-kit-0-base-20261023.md`；`PROGRESS-ui-kit-1-shell-20261023.md`；`PROGRESS-ui-kit-2-chat-20261023.md`；`PROGRESS-ui-kit-3-chart-20261023.md`；`PROGRESS-ui-kit-4-people-20261023.md`；`PROGRESS-ui-kit-5-pages-20261023.md`；`PROGRESS-ui-kit-6-rectification-20261023.md`；`PROGRESS-ui-kit-7-cleanup-20261023.md` | **界面统一换成组件库**：shadcn base-nova（补 `shadcn/tailwind.css`）· Lucide · Motion · react-resizable-panels · dnd-kit · Zustand；lint 拦手写控件（白名单只减不增）；对话旁星盘面板；会话、档案拖动排序（动表）；长相不变。产品 2026-10-23 拍板 D1～D8；8 个 issue（K0～K7）串行，取代全站动效 #98 #100 #101 | K0–K7 已在测试环境，待验收 | 原型 https://claude.ai/artifact/PGnWsjHhu38KJseEfEMNWG |
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user