732642856
169 lines
4.4 KiB
Markdown
169 lines
4.4 KiB
Markdown
# Event Judgment Skeleton v1.0
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> 用途：把分散在 `full-reading`、`dasha`、`jaimini`、`varga`、`kp`、`shadbala`、`ashtakavarga`、`references/verified-patterns-*` 中的证据，收束成统一的事件裁决链。
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> 适用：marriage / career / wealth / health / generic event verification
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---
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## 1. Route
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不要只按触发词路由。每次先识别三件事：
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1. **问题域**
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- `relationship`
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- `career`
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- `wealth`
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- `health`
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- `generic_event`
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2. **任务类型**
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- `prediction`
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- `backtest`
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- `rectification_support`
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- `multi-option adjudication`
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3. **目标粒度**
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- `trend`
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- `window`
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- `month_level`
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- `event_level verification`
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若这三件事没有先冻结，不得继续下判。
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---
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## 2. Evidence Ledger
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每个模块必须变成结构化证据块，而不是散乱叙述。
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```json
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{
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"module": "marriage_timing",
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"subtechnique": "double_transit",
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"question_domain": "relationship",
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"verdict_role": "activation",
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"signal": "supportive|mixed|contradictory|blocked",
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"strength": 0.0,
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"raw_values": {},
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"engine": "native|pyjhora|vedastro|jyotishganit",
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"ayanamsa": "lahiri",
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"node_mode": "mean|true",
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"template_id": "darakaraka_ul_spouse_depth",
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"case_ref_ids": [],
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"maturity": "complete|covered|partial",
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"notes": ""
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}
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```
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最少要求：
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- `module`
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- `subtechnique`
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- `verdict_role`
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- `signal`
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- `strength`
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- `raw_values`
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- `engine`
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- `ayanamsa`
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- `node_mode`
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- `maturity`
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所有涉及印度占星推运、运势解读、事件预测、流年流月、健康、搬迁、考试、
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出行、出生时间校正辅助或技法可靠性判断的问题，都必须复用既有
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`references/mandatory-verification-gate-protocol.md`：
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- `MEVG / Global Web Evidence`：记录全球 / 全网外部资料采集、source tier、
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conflict arbitration 和未验证声明的降级。
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- `Real Case Calibration`：记录真实案例参考、公开 benchmark case，或明确
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case gap。
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- pure calculation exemption 只适用于纯计算、纯代码、纯项目维护或不解释运势意义的
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原始数据输出；一旦解释推运或运势意义，必须执行 MEVG 与真实案例校正。
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---
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## 3. Adjudication
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所有事件判断必须按以下顺序：
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1. **Promise**
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- 本命是否有该主题的承载力？
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- 禁止直接从 Dasha/Transit 跳到“会发生”
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2. **Activation**
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- Dasha / Transit / Annual / Jaimini / KP 是否激活？
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3. **Manifestation**
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- 是否足以落到现实事件，而不是只形成心理主题、机会接触或背景躁动？
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4. **Timing**
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- 若 Promise + Activation + Manifestation 都成立，才进入 timing 窗口判定
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### 矛盾优先级
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若不同证据块冲突，按以下顺序裁决：
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1. `verified pattern / benchmark`
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2. `cross-system convergence`
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3. `classical rule with prerequisites satisfied`
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4. `single module output`
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若冲突无法裁决，必须输出 `blocked`。
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---
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## 4. Confidence Mapping
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置信度不得只按“有几个名人案例”判断，至少同时考虑以下 6 维：
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1. `benchmark/case support`
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2. `technique maturity`
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3. `cross-system convergence`
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4. `birth time precision`
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5. `oracle closure status`
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6. `contradiction severity`
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建议映射：
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- `A`：多案例 / benchmark 强支撑 + complete/covered + 多系统同向 + 参数清晰
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- `B`：部分案例支撑 + 多模块同向 + 仍有轻微边界
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- `C`：经典规则存在，但统计、闭环或关键层不足
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- `D`：仅单一模块、关键层缺失或矛盾明显
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---
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## 5. Output Contract
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最终输出必须包含：
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1. `verdict`
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2. `confidence`
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3. `conflicts`
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4. `Technique Audit Table`
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5. `raw evidence`
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6. `MEVG / Global Web Evidence`
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7. `Real Case Calibration`
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最小 JSON 形态：
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```json
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{
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"event_family": "relationship",
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"verdict": "high_probability_window|moderate_probability_window|weak_window_needs_confirmation|insufficient_evidence|blocked",
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"confidence": "A|B|C|D",
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"conflicts": [],
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"primary_drivers": [],
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"missing_evidence": [],
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"raw_evidence_refs": []
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}
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```
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---
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## 6. Hard Stops
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以下任一项未满足时，不得包装成高严谨结论：
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- 未显式声明 `Ayanamsa / Node mode`
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- 未显式声明 `Functional Benefic/Malefic`
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- timing 问题未完成 `Vimshottari + Narayana`
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- 题目域分盘未展开（relationship -> D9/UL；career -> D10/A10；wealth -> D2/D11）
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- 外部 oracle 未闭环却假装全局封顶
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- 缺少 `Technique Audit Table`
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- 缺少 `MEVG / Global Web Evidence`
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- 缺少 `Real Case Calibration`
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