docs(rectification): audit two holdout dates and open the v4 intake

Co-authored-by: Cursor <cursoragent@cursor.com>
2026-08-29 00:43:31 +08:00
parent 9d80498316
commit 3dc2af0c96
6 changed files with 3505 additions and 15 deletions
@@ -1030,3 +1030,11 @@
 - 真实状态来自 `minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json` 与 `minute_rectification_holdout_v3_report.json`（evaluated_on 2026-07-21）：20 个公开 AA 案例已存在；source audit 失败（`invalidated_after_replay`）；`top_1_rate=0.15`、`top_3_rate=0.25`、`mean_absolute_minute_error=6.95` 均未过门；`confirmation_coverage_rate=0.0`。
 - 合同六键已改为 v3 数字，`status` 仍为 `not_ready`。确认门保持关闭：案例数已满，但 status 非 ready 且 confirmation_coverage_rate 为 0。
 - 防复发：holdout 集一旦回放，必须把真实 status / 案例数 / 指标写回 `rectification_sealed_holdout.v1.json`；不得把合同留在上一版的计数上。
+
+## 2026-08-29 - C2: 两例日期审计 + v4 intake + 诊断回放（非盲测）
+
+- `robbins_marriage_1968`：submitted `1968`（year）；verified `1967-03-10`（day）。原 URL `https://www.johnrobbins.info/about/` 无结婚日期，已替换为 `https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)`。v3 盲测 working `date` 仍保留 submitted `1968`。
+- `takamoto_joined_disney_1947`：submitted `1947`（year）；verified `1945`（year）。原 URL `https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto` 已写明 1945 入职 Disney，URL 保留。v3 盲测 working `date` 仍保留 submitted `1947`。未把 year-precision 编造成 day。
+- v3 `source_audit_status` 仍为 `invalidated_after_replay`。未改已发布的 `minute_rectification_holdout_v3_report.json` 数字。
+- v4 intake `day_precision_events_per_case=3` 未放宽：20 例中仅 4 例入列（`barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout`、`paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout`、`sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout`、`kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout`）。其余 16 例在补齐 review safeguards 后仍为 `insufficient_day_precision_events`；Robbins/Takamoto 校正后仍不够 3 个 day 事件。intake 保持 `production_tuning_allowed=false`、`verified_minute_claim_allowed=false`。
+- 诊断回放文件：`minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic.json` / `_report.json`。这是 post-audit diagnostic rerun，不是盲测，不可声称 release gate 通过，不可用于调参。官方 eval runner 因当前树 scoring 文件哈希已偏离 2026-07-21 v3 freeze 而 `implementation_hash_matches=false`、trial_count=0；本任务未改 `frozen_scoring.files`。确认门仍关闭。
@@ -8,13 +8,27 @@
  "source_audit_issues": [
    {
      "event_id": "robbins_marriage_1968",
-      "issue": "The cited public biography gives 1967-03-10, not 1968."
+      "issue": "The cited public biography gives 1967-03-10, not 1968.",
+      "submitted_date": "1968",
+      "verified_date": "1967-03-10",
+      "cited_url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/about/",
+      "cited_url_outcome": "replaced",
+      "cited_url_note": "The original about page has no marriage date.",
+      "replacement_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)"
    },
    {
      "event_id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947",
-      "issue": "Multiple public biographies give 1945, not 1947."
+      "issue": "Multiple public biographies give 1945, not 1947.",
+      "submitted_date": "1947",
+      "verified_date": "1945",
+      "cited_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto",
+      "cited_url_outcome": "kept",
+      "cited_url_note": "The cited Wikipedia page states hired by Walt Disney Productions in 1945, not 1947."
    }
  ],
+  "post_audit_diagnostic_dataset": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic.json",
+  "post_audit_diagnostic_report": "references/real_case_calibration/minute_rectification_holdout_v3_post_audit_diagnostic_report.json",
+  "post_audit_diagnostic_note": "The historical blind working date fields below remain the submitted values. Verified dates live on the events as verified_date and in the diagnostic dataset. Do not treat a re-run of this file as a new blind holdout.",
  "minimum_gate": {
    "public_aa_cases": 20,
    "events_per_case": 3,
@@ -303,7 +317,7 @@
        "source": {"publisher": "Astro-Databank", "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Robbins%2C_John", "rodden_rating": "AA", "record_type": "birth_record"}
      },
      "events": [
-        {"id": "robbins_marriage_1968", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1968", "precision": "year", "description": "Married Deo Robbins.", "source": {"publisher": "John Robbins", "url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/about/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
+        {"id": "robbins_marriage_1968", "domain": "relationship", "date": "1968", "precision": "year", "submitted_date": "1968", "verified_date": "1967-03-10", "source_audit_note": "Blind working date remains submitted 1968. Verified 1967-03-10 from Wikipedia; original johnrobbins.info/about/ has no marriage date.", "description": "Married Deo Robbins.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
        {"id": "robbins_diet_book_1987", "domain": "career", "date": "1987", "precision": "year", "description": "Published Diet for a New America.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robbins_(author)", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
        {"id": "robbins_health_book_1996", "domain": "career", "date": "1996", "precision": "year", "description": "Published Reclaiming Our Health.", "source": {"publisher": "John Robbins", "url": "https://www.johnrobbins.info/books/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
      ]
@@ -348,7 +362,7 @@
        "source": {"publisher": "Astro-Databank", "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Takamoto%2C_Iwao", "rodden_rating": "AA", "record_type": "birth_record"}
      },
      "events": [
-        {"id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947", "domain": "career", "date": "1947", "precision": "year", "description": "Joined Walt Disney Animation Studios.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
+        {"id": "takamoto_joined_disney_1947", "domain": "career", "date": "1947", "precision": "year", "submitted_date": "1947", "verified_date": "1945", "source_audit_note": "Blind working date remains submitted 1947. Cited Wikipedia states hired by Walt Disney Productions in 1945; URL kept.", "description": "Joined Walt Disney Animation Studios.", "source": {"publisher": "Wikipedia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iwao_Takamoto", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
        {"id": "takamoto_hanna_barbera_1961", "domain": "career", "date": "1961", "precision": "year", "description": "Moved to Hanna-Barbera and began designing its characters.", "source": {"publisher": "Animation Magazine", "url": "https://www.animationmagazine.net/2007/01/animation-legend-iwao-takamoto-dies/", "independent_of_birth_source": true}},
        {"id": "takamoto_heart_attack_2007", "domain": "health_pressure", "date": "2007-01-08", "precision": "day", "description": "Died following a heart attack.", "source": {"publisher": "The New York Times", "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/10/arts/10takamoto.html", "independent_of_birth_source": true}}
      ]
@@ -1,16 +1,449 @@
 {
-  "schema_version": "minute-rectification-holdout-v4-intake",
-  "status": "collecting_independently_reviewed_cases",
+  "boundary": "This intake queue is not a frozen holdout. Promotion requires a new version, a passed source audit and a scoring identity frozen before blind replay.",
+  "cases": [
+    {
+      "adjudicator": "v3_sealed_set_post_audit_migration",
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1961-08-04",
+        "latitude": 21.3069,
+        "longitude": -157.8583,
+        "place": "Honolulu, Hawaii, United States",
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "record_type": "birth_record",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/adbvip/adbvip_08_04.htm?lang=r&nho2=161&nhor=1"
+        },
+        "time": "19:24",
+        "timezone_offset": -10.0
+      },
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "case_id": "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "date": "1992-10-03",
+          "description": "Married Michelle Robinson.",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "id": "obama_wedding_1992_v4",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Obama Foundation",
+            "url": "https://obama.org/about/administration/chicago-where-it-began/"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "1996-11-05",
+          "description": "Elected to the Illinois State Senate.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "obama_illinois_senate_1996_v4",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_Senate_career_of_Barack_Obama"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "2008-11-04",
+          "description": "Elected President of the United States.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "obama_presidential_election_2008_v4",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "White House Archives",
+            "url": "https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/1600/presidents/barackobama/"
+          }
+        }
+      ],
+      "excluded_from_tuning": true,
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+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
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+      "ingested_at": "2026-08-28T16:29:41.362489Z",
+      "review_attestation": "Attests the v3 sealed-set review already recorded for this public AA case; not a new biography audit.",
+      "subject_label": "Barack Obama"
+    },
+    {
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+      "birth": {
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+        "place": "Janesville, Wisconsin, United States",
+        "source": {
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+          "record_type": "birth_record",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Ryan%2C_Paul"
+        },
+        "time": "02:37",
+        "timezone_offset": -6.0
+      },
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "case_id": "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "date": "1998-11-03",
+          "description": "Was elected to the United States House of Representatives.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "ryan_elected_house_1998",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "United States House of Representatives",
+            "url": "https://history.house.gov/People/Detail/20147"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "2000-12-02",
+          "description": "Married Janna Little.",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "id": "ryan_marriage_2000",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica",
+            "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Paul-Ryan"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "2015-10-29",
+          "description": "Was elected Speaker of the House.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "ryan_speaker_2015",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2015_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election"
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+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "independent_human_reviewed": true,
+      "ingested_at": "2026-08-28T16:29:41.658178Z",
+      "review_attestation": "Attests the v3 sealed-set review already recorded for this public AA case; not a new biography audit.",
+      "subject_label": "Paul Ryan"
+    },
+    {
+      "adjudicator": "v3_sealed_set_post_audit_migration",
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1975-10-09",
+        "latitude": 40.7667,
+        "longitude": -73.9833,
+        "place": "Manhattan, New York, United States",
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "record_type": "birth_record",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Lennon%2C_Sean"
+        },
+        "time": "02:00",
+        "timezone_offset": -4.0
+      },
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "case_id": "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "date": "1980-12-08",
+          "description": "His father John Lennon was murdered.",
+          "domain": "health_pressure",
+          "id": "lennon_father_death_1980",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica",
+            "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/John-Lennon"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "1998-05-19",
+          "description": "Released his debut album Into the Sun.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "lennon_into_sun_1998",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "AllMusic",
+            "url": "https://www.allmusic.com/album/into-the-sun-mw0000036772"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "2006-09-26",
+          "description": "Released the album Friendly Fire.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "lennon_friendly_fire_2006",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Wikipedia",
+            "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_Fire_(Sean_Lennon_album)"
+          }
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+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "independent_human_reviewed": true,
+      "ingested_at": "2026-08-28T16:29:41.829087Z",
+      "review_attestation": "Attests the v3 sealed-set review already recorded for this public AA case; not a new biography audit.",
+      "subject_label": "Sean Lennon"
+    },
+    {
+      "adjudicator": "v3_sealed_set_post_audit_migration",
+      "birth": {
+        "date": "1967-02-20",
+        "latitude": 46.9833,
+        "longitude": -123.8167,
+        "place": "Aberdeen, Washington, United States",
+        "source": {
+          "publisher": "Astro-Databank",
+          "record_type": "birth_record",
+          "rodden_rating": "AA",
+          "url": "https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Cobain%2C_Kurt"
+        },
+        "time": "19:38",
+        "timezone_offset": -8.0
+      },
+      "candidate_radius_minutes": 10,
+      "case_id": "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout",
+      "events": [
+        {
+          "date": "1991-09-24",
+          "description": "Nirvana released Nevermind.",
+          "domain": "career",
+          "id": "cobain_nevermind_1991",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Rock and Roll Hall of Fame",
+            "url": "https://www.rockhall.com/inductees/nirvana"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "1992-02-24",
+          "description": "Married Courtney Love.",
+          "domain": "relationship",
+          "id": "cobain_marriage_1992",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "Encyclopaedia Britannica",
+            "url": "https://www.britannica.com/biography/Kurt-Cobain"
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "date": "1994-03-04",
+          "description": "Was hospitalized after an overdose in Rome.",
+          "domain": "health_pressure",
+          "id": "cobain_overdose_1994",
+          "precision": "day",
+          "source": {
+            "independent_of_birth_source": true,
+            "publisher": "The Seattle Times",
+            "url": "https://www.seattletimes.com/entertainment/music/kurt-cobain-a-timeline-of-his-life/"
+          }
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+      "false_minute_commitments": [
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "557feee24f6fdfc80f64082695026f9f8b69c44d84ca77b0ba380a27a19f8db0",
+          "offset_minutes": -10
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "22a3140ec461b71aad9a02ca07a642293908be11066b125feeeed00e9d336fee",
+          "offset_minutes": -5
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "e6a63445423e4f20e25aff4422a6c2e2171e8b5b1f817b7c942a6d45ac93ad42",
+          "offset_minutes": -2
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "2ca091c950d96413e45c35524031356dd2387b85a3444386c5b1c9562c884d6e",
+          "offset_minutes": -1
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "0d4cf78bcd4d3b9e7ba2385d1c13978ab1a634b299711bd4c0b899cad18a4067",
+          "offset_minutes": 1
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "30242701a0c8d92f807da66e7fb53ca894dea6e36e354f406c74f444d8fbecb8",
+          "offset_minutes": 2
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "7267b8aaf5c73b49953b946fba31ca1fb5ea707720e65ca030ba4327eda3c4fe",
+          "offset_minutes": 5
+        },
+        {
+          "commitment_hash": "b1d28e8285438f26532f5bfd2447df34eddbe24e26d53d7d4069b87d1420704c",
+          "offset_minutes": 10
+        }
+      ],
+      "false_minute_offsets": [
+        -10,
+        -5,
+        -2,
+        -1,
+        1,
+        2,
+        5,
+        10
+      ],
+      "frozen_before_scoring": true,
+      "holdout_partition": "sealed_evaluation",
+      "independent_human_reviewed": true,
+      "ingested_at": "2026-08-28T16:29:41.971107Z",
+      "review_attestation": "Attests the v3 sealed-set review already recorded for this public AA case; not a new biography audit.",
+      "subject_label": "Kurt Cobain"
+    }
+  ],
  "minimum_gate": {
-    "public_aa_cases": 20,
-    "events_per_case": 3,
+    "day_precision_events_per_case": 3,
    "domains_per_case": 2,
+    "events_per_case": 3,
    "independent_event_sources_per_case": 2,
    "negative_minutes_per_case": 4,
-    "day_precision_events_per_case": 3
+    "public_aa_cases": 20
  },
-  "cases": [],
  "production_tuning_allowed": false,
-  "verified_minute_claim_allowed": false,
-  "boundary": "This intake queue is not a frozen holdout. Promotion requires a new version, a passed source audit and a scoring identity frozen before blind replay."
+  "schema_version": "minute-rectification-holdout-v4-intake",
+  "status": "collecting_independently_reviewed_cases",
+  "verified_minute_claim_allowed": false
 }
@@ -4,7 +4,15 @@ from copy import deepcopy
 from pathlib import Path

 from scripts.minute_rectification_holdout_intake import DEFAULT_INTAKE, append_case
-from scripts.minute_rectification_holdout_validator import DEFAULT_MANIFEST
+from scripts.minute_rectification_holdout_validator import DEFAULT_MANIFEST, case_errors
+
+V3_HOLDOUT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] / "references" / "real_case_calibration" / "minute_rectification_holdout_v3.json"
+EXPECTED_V4_INTAKE_CASE_IDS = {
+    "barack_obama_1961_aa_v4_holdout",
+    "paul_ryan_1970_aa_v4_holdout",
+    "sean_lennon_1975_aa_v4_holdout",
+    "kurt_cobain_1967_aa_v4_holdout",
+}


 def _reviewed_case() -> dict:
@@ -65,9 +73,40 @@ def test_intake_rejects_missing_review_and_commitments(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
    assert "false_minute_commitments_do_not_match_offsets" in report["errors"]


-def test_default_intake_is_non_production_and_empty() -> None:
+def test_default_intake_is_non_production_and_contains_day_precision_v3_cases() -> None:
    data = json.loads(DEFAULT_INTAKE.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))

-    assert data["cases"] == []
+    assert {case["case_id"] for case in data["cases"]} == EXPECTED_V4_INTAKE_CASE_IDS
+    assert len(data["cases"]) == 4
    assert data["production_tuning_allowed"] is False
    assert data["verified_minute_claim_allowed"] is False
+
+
+def test_year_precision_v3_cases_are_rejected_for_insufficient_day_precision() -> None:
+    v3 = json.loads(V3_HOLDOUT.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+    gate = json.loads(DEFAULT_INTAKE.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))["minimum_gate"]
+    rejected: dict[str, list[str]] = {}
+    for case in v3["cases"]:
+        payload = deepcopy(case)
+        payload.update({
+            "adjudicator": "v3_sealed_set_post_audit_migration",
+            "independent_human_reviewed": True,
+            "frozen_before_scoring": True,
+            "false_minute_commitments": [
+                {
+                    "offset_minutes": offset,
+                    "commitment_hash": hashlib.sha256(f"control:{offset}".encode()).hexdigest(),
+                }
+                for offset in case["false_minute_offsets"]
+            ],
+        })
+        errors = case_errors(payload, gate, require_review_safeguards=True)
+        if errors:
+            rejected[str(case["case_id"])] = errors
+
+    assert "insufficient_day_precision_events" in rejected["john_robbins_1947_aa_v4_holdout"]
+    assert "insufficient_day_precision_events" in rejected["iwao_takamoto_1925_aa_v4_holdout"]
+    assert "insufficient_day_precision_events" in rejected["angelina_jolie_1975_aa_v4_holdout"]
+    for case_id in EXPECTED_V4_INTAKE_CASE_IDS:
+        assert case_id not in rejected
+    assert all("insufficient_day_precision_events" in errors for errors in rejected.values())